A key three-game series between the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals, two contenders for the NL East division crown, comes to a close in the Nation’s Capital on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. After finishing 2017 with the second worst record in the NL, the Phillies have made major strides this year and will look to make a statement on national television with a win on Sunday. To do so, they’ll need a good outing from Nick Pivetta who is slated to get the start. Washington’s starter remains up in the air.
First pitch for the game between the Phillies and Nationals is scheduled for Sunday, June 24, 2018, at 8:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
Both Washington and Philadelphia find themselves ranked in the bottom third of baseball in runs scored, depending more on their pitching than their bats to get them to where they are in the standings.
Last year, these two teams were on opposite ends of the spectrum at the dish. The Nationals were one of the best hitting teams in baseball with a killer middle of the order while the Phillies struggled to score runs. Philadelphia’s offense has improved since then, but Washington’s has regressed. Now, these two teams are separated by six runs scored over their 72 games with the Phillies having what is essentially an insignificant advantage.
In the shorter term, the gap between the Phillies and Nationals offensively has been a bit bigger in Philadelphia’s favor as the Nationals’ offense has gone cold in June.
Bryce Harper just isn’t hitting. Here in June, he’s batting .133 with a .224 OBP. He’s hit one home run and had one double, leaving him with only two extra base hits in 16 June games. Daniel Murphy hasn’t found his stroke since coming off the DL either and has three hits in 28 at bats. Mark Reynolds is past his red-hot start, Wilmer Difo is hitting .193 in June and even Trea Turner has cooled.
Really, the Nationals have been carried through the month on the shoulders of a 19-year old, Juan Soto. Soto’s on fire. He’s batting .326 with six home runs and a 1.019 OPS in 27 games since his promotion. Michael Taylor is hitting better in June with less playing time. Dave Martinez is choosing his spots with him now that Soto is up and Adam Eaton is healthy. It’s working.
Philadelphia has some struggling hitters now, too, but it hasn’t been quite as bad as in Washington. Sure, J.P. Crawford is on the shelf and both Maikel Franco and Aaron Altherr have been ice cold in June, but Odubel Herrera’s bat is heating back up.
Rhys Hoskins is batting .357 with four homers and 13 RBIs in 11 games since coming off the DL while Carlos Santana has a .421 OBP in June and Cesar Hernandez continues to set the table.
Probable Pitchers
While the Phillies are spending the top of the rotation arms earlier in the series, Nick Pivetta, like the rest of the rotation has some good stuff. For the 25-year old right-hander, the main question is consistency.
Pivetta had a 6.02 ERA in 26 starts in 2017, but has been much better this year. He’s only 4-6, but his 4.08 ERA is much better as is his 1.185 WHIP. His walk rate is down, his strikeouts are up and he’s not giving up nearly as much hard contact.
While the overall stats for Pivetta this year over last show a sizable step forward, the young right-hander did hit a bit of a road bump this month. In his first three June starts, Pivetta regressed to his 2017 form. In 14 innings—spread over three games—he allowed 13 runs, 19 hits and seven walks. To make things look worse, Pivetta was bad in his only start of the year against the Nationals, allowing six runs in one inning.
Despite that, Pivetta seemed to rebound nicely in his last start, going 7.1 innings and allowing two runs on four hits and one walk against the Cardinals. He struck out 13 St. Louis batters, a career high, and got 11 swing and misses on his curveball. The curve location had been an issue in previous starts.
With the feel of the curve back, Pivetta could be poised for a fun of success. Prior to his struggles in June, he did have four straight starts where he allowed two runs or less, giving up just three total runs in 24 innings in those four starts.
It’s hard to say which Pivetta will show up, but if it’s the good one, the Phillies will be in an excellent spot. After all, while we don’t know which Pivetta will show for the Phillies, its completely unknown which pitcher will even get the start for the Nationals.
With Stephen Strasburg and Jeremey Hellickson both on the disabled list, a filler arm will take the start with Jefry Rodriguez lined up for his second career start.
In his first start, Rodriguez gave up five runs—three earned—to the Orioles in five innings of work. He waked three and allowed two homers in those five frames. The results weren’t great despite facing one of the game’s worst offenses.
The 24-year old rookie was a big overwhelmed in his second Major League appearance and will need to adjust to facing big league hitters. He’s rather inexperienced against higher-level talent overall. Prior to his Major League call up, he made just 13 starts above A-ball, all coming this year at Double-A Harrisburg. In those starts, he’s 5-3 with a 3.31 ERA, but command was a bit of an issue with a 3.7 walk per nine innings ratio.
Live Betting
Kelvin Herrera made his first appearance for the Nationals on Wednesday, pitching a scoreless, hitless inning. He’s now the primary set up man for Washington. Added to Sean Doolittle in the ninth and good early returns from Justin Miller and Tim Collins, the Washington pen has quickly turned from a concern to a strength.
The health of Brandon Kintzler and effectiveness of Ryan Madson are questions still, but the Nationals’ pen has enough reinforcements now to not be a concern. The issues in this game will be getting to the back-end guys with the lead.
The names are much less proven in the Philadelphia bullpen. Hector Neris has lost his spot as closer and been demoted to the minors. Normally, that would be a concern, but not the way Seranthony Dominguez and Edubray Ramos are pitching. They’re generally unknown guys nationally, but they could be key late innings options for Gabe Kapler in this nationally televised game.
MLB Pick
The Nationals’ bullpen took a major step forward with Kelvin Herrera added to the mix, but the rotation sorely misses Strasburg and Hellickson. Rodriguez didn’t look good against a bad Orioles’ offense in his start. Don’t expect much from the youngster in start number two if he gets the nod. Either way, it won’t be Max Scherzer getting the start and the rest of the options can be beat.
While the Phillies’ bats aren’t the greatest, they’re better than Baltimore and can put a few runs together. Herrera is swinging better and along with Santana, Hoskins and Hernandez, there are enough pieces to plate some runs. Meanwhile, the Nationals’ hitters are struggling.
Count on the Phillies to grab an early lead and hold in throughout the game. Pivetta’s last start was a good sign for him to hold the Nationals in check and give a good, albeit young, collection of relief arms a chance to close it out.
Look for the Phillies to steal a win on the road over the Nationals in a statement win on national television.
MLB Odds: Phillies 6, Nationals 4
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