ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball this week will feature the Chicago Cubs, playing host to the San Francisco Giants, in the finale of a three-game weekend series. The Cubs are in a dog fight in a stacked NL Central. Chicago hasn’t gotten the pitching they’ve expected, including from Sunday’s starter in Yu Darvish. Darvish is hoping to get on a roll as he opposes Ty Blach in this primetime showdown.
First pitch for the game between the Giants and Cubs is scheduled for Sunday 27, 2018, at 8:08 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
Cubs are 4-6 in their last 10 games as they continue to hang around in the division, but have yet to really put it all together as a team.
The rotation has been more of a concern than expected and even the offense has been a bit disjointed with Addison Russell, Jason Heyward and even Anthony Rizzo slumping.
Outside of those three, however, the Cubbies do have a number of hitters producing well, including Kris Bryant who leads the team with a 164 OPS+ thanks to a .418 OBP and .566 slugging percentage, powered by eight homers and 15 doubles.
Albert Almora has also been a beast at the plate and in the field. The centerfielder is an early favorite for a Gold Glove, making insane plays. He’s stolen back some playing time after Ian Happ opened the year in center. Happ, though, is hard to keep out of the lineup, too. He’s got a .362 OBP and eight bombs in 118 at bats.
Factoring Javy Baez, Kyle Schwarber and Willson Contreras, the Cubs are getting enough offense even though they are still waiting for Rizzo to heat up. After all, they’ve outscored every NL team outside of Atlanta with 238 runs and have .766 OPS as a team to pace the National League. And they’ve gotten better in May with 105 runs and .790 OPS, both tops in the NL.
In San Francisco, the offense has been better than one could expect. This is a team that was last in the league in homers last year and struggled getting any offense outside of Buster Posey.
The trail only the Cubs in runs scored in May. Brandon Belt has been otherworldly. He’s got a .317/.416/.593 slash line with 11 homers and 29 RBIs. Brandon Crawford has been red-hot this month, too, and is now hitting .310 on the year. Meanwhile, Buster Posey has been great, as always, and Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen have been chugging along providing league average production at third base and right-field, both massive improvements on what the team ran out there last year.
Both these offenses are swinging well right now though the Giants, like the Cubs, don’t really have the wins to show for it. San Francisco is 5-11 in their last 16 games.
Probable Pitchers
It’s been a disappointing start to his Cubs’ career for Yu Darvish who just nabbed his first win in a Cubbies’ uniform in his last start, going six innings against the Reds.
Darvish will try and maintain that momentum on Sunday night and parlay it into back-to-back wins with a victory over the Giants. The veteran right-hander has only faced San Francisco once, throwing seven scoreless against them back September as a member of the Dodgers.
Through some injuries and early struggles, Darvish is just 1-3 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.425 WHIP over eight games. He’s thrown just 40 innings, averaging just five innings a start.
Of course, with the strong Cubs’ bullpen, five innings is enough as long as those are five good innings.
It’s command that’s plagued Darvish. He got a late start due to signing late and perhaps that’s showing. Maybe his last start is a good sign. We’ll see as the Giants represent a significantly more difficult challenge than the Reds.
One thing is for sure, he’ll need to do better than the 21 walks and seven homers allowed. He still walked three, but didn’t allow a homer in his six innings against Cincinnati.
Statistically, Ty Blach has out pitched Darvish this year, though it’s rather close.
Blach is 3-4 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.491 WHIP in 11 starts. He’s averaging just around five innings a start himself.
The 27-year old southpaw has a 1.42 strikeout to walk ratio. He’s only sat 27 down on strikes in 57.2 innings, leaving him vulnerable to the defense behind him. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but the defense in San Fran leaves something to be desired, making the most errors of any team in the NL.
His last time out, Blach only went 4.1 innings, allowing four runs on eight hits against the Rockies. It was the third straight game that Blach failed to get through the fifth. He’s allowed 10 runs in 16.2 innings during those three games.
Live Betting
When looking at the Cubs so far in 2018, it’s easy to pick apart what hasn’t gone well. Rizzo isn’t hitting. The starting pitching hasn’t been as strong as expected. The team is in fourth place.
That’s all true, but in a season that the Cubs have had a number of negatives hold them back, they’ve had one big positive that’s helped keep them over-.500: the bullpen.
The Cubs’ bullpen is third best in the NL and fourth best in the Majors with a 2.81 ERA. By comparison, San Francisco’s bullpen ERA is 4.15.
Brandon Morrow has been better than one could’ve hoped in the closer’s role. He’s allowed just two runs in 17 innings and has 10 saves. If this game gets to the ninth with the Cubs in the lead, it’s over. In fact, with Carl Edwards—save his most recent outing, Steve Cishek, Pedro Strop and Brian Duensing all lined up, if this game gets to the bullpen with Chicago ahead, it’s as good as a win for the Cubs.
In a battle of bullpens, there’s no doubt the Cubs’ win. Bruce Bochy is as good a bullpen manager as there is, but then again, the same goes for Joe Maddon. Both managers manage the pen well. Maddon just has better options.
Hunter Strickland has come into his own in the closer’s role while Tony Watson and Sam Dyson are good veteran options with closer experience from either side. That’s not a bad trio, but it doesn’t matchup with the depth in Chicago.
MLB Pick
Darvish looks to be coming around. He’s too good a pitcher to expect him to continue to struggle as much as he has.
Look for six solid frames from the Cubs’ right-hander and his second straight win as Chicago’s offense is doing well right now. They’ll knock Blach out of the game early, again, and continue to add against the Giants bullpen.
On the other side, after Darvish’s six solid, the Cubs’ bullpen will be lined up to deliver goose eggs. Chicago’s pen has been lights out all year long and there’s no reason to expect anything different on Sunday night.
Bank on the Cubs capturing the win in the series finale on Sunday.
MLB Odds: Cubs 7, Giants 4
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