It’s the Wild West in the National League with the NL West up for grabs. The Diamondbacks had the division under wraps last month, but have fallen fast with injuries and poor performance. Now, the Colorado Rockies hold the top spot as they get ready to open a series against the San Francisco Giants on Memorial Day. The contest will feature Chad Bettis and Andrew Suarez on the mound as the two teams fight for NL West supremacy.
First pitch for the game between the Giants and Rockies is scheduled for Monday, May 28, 2018, at 7:10 p.m. ET at Coors Field. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Rockies sit in first place in the NL West, almost by default, with the Giants a few games back in third place.
Colorado isn’t playing great ball right now, they’ve lost nine of their last 14 games, but at two games over-.500 that’s enough in the division that’s plagued by the top dogs in Los Angeles and Arizona struggling mightily at different points in the campaign.
The slumping Rockies are just not slumping quite as badly as everyone else. There’s something to be said for that.
While the team in general has managed to stay afloat better than the rest in the division, the offense hasn’t been a big reason why.
At the plate, the Rockies have always been an elite team, partially because of their home park. In May, the Rockies rank No.22 in baseball with 81 runs scored and have a team average of .236 and team OPS of .706. Those numbers are terrible, particularly when considering they’re inflated playing half their games at Coors.
The Rockies are not a good hitting team right now. Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado, of course, are star hitters. They’re elite and swinging well, but after getting past the first few batters in the order, the rest of the lineup has vastly underperformed.
Trevor Story is giving the team some pop and his .325 OBP is serviceable enough, but with D.J. LeMahieu on the DL, that really leaves three players with an OPS+ over the 83 of David Dahl, let alone at or above league average.
There are still threats in the lineup and the guys at the top can hit, but unless Ian Desmond runs into one or Carlos Gonzalez starts to get hot, this lineup can be navigated.
Of course, the same can be said about the Giants’ lineup. San Francisco, however, has put up better numbers this month.
The Giants have a .785 team OPS this month and are riding a hot bat of Brandon Crawford and season long run by Brandon Belt. There are more quality players have quality seasons for the Giants though it’s hard to match the talent of the Blackmon/Arenado duo in Colorado.
Probable Pitchers
Neither team has officially announced its starter for this Memorial Day showdown, but both Chad Bettis and Andrew Suarez would stay in rotation to make the start.
Bettis has been one of the Rockies’ best starters this season. After battling cancer last season, Bettis is relishing a chance to start a season on the roster and contribute. He’s throwing well despite a low strikeout rate and inflated walk rate. Bettis has a 1.77 strikeout to walk ratio, but despite that he’s managed to go 4-1 with a 3.30 ERA thanks to a lot of weak contact.
The change up has served Bettis well in his last two starts. He struggled through five innings a few starts ago, allowing seven runs at home, but has been better the last two times out. Now he needs to do a better job locating the change at home.
While Bettis does have great numbers, his home/road splits are quite pronounced. He’s pitching fair better on the road, away from Coors Field. In three starts at home, he’s got a 6.89 ERA. Of course, that’s only 15.2 innings compared to 44.1 innings and seven starts on the road where he’s got a 2.03 ERA.
Bettis, traditionally, has done better than that at home. His ERA is a run higher at home than on the road over his career, but he’s still 14-8 at home. Any pitcher will give up runs at Coors. It’s just a matter of giving up less than the opposition and he’s done that more times than not.
On the other side of this matchup, Suarez’s numbers are not great. He’s 1-4 with a 5.68 ERA and six home runs allowed in 31.2 innings. That rate is not going to fly at Coors, but the homers certainly will.
While the homers show Suarez can miss in the zone, he’s done well to not miss out of it with just five walks to 27 strikeouts this season. Suarez makes you earn your way on, but sometimes he’s a in the zone a bit too much.
The 25-year old southpaw’s overall numbers don’t catch many eyes, but his ability to stay in the zone has intrigued the Giants who continue to give him a chance. Of course, a 1.16 ERA in four Triple-A starts to begin the season cannot hurt either.
Having another lefty in the rotation is always nice, too, though the Rockies have actually swung the bat well against southpaws with a .762 team OPS and 76 runs against lefties, tied for most in the NL.
Live Betting
Over his career, Bettis has faced the Rockies a few times. The current Giants players have a combined .248 average and .697 OPS against Bettis. Those are okay numbers, but not astonishing.
There are some good individual numbers, however, including Belt who is 8-for-19 with a pair of double, a homer and three walks. When we get later in the game, Belt is 4-for-7 against Adam Ottavino and hasn’t faced Wade Davis.
Davis and Ottavino are two big reasons the Rockies sit atop the division. The two have anchored the Rockies bullpen and effectively limited the game to a couple innings. Relievers like Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw are struggling in Colorado, but Davis and Ottavino are delivering.
Ottavino is now 3-0 with a 1.01 ERA. He’s allowed seven hits in 26.2 innings. He does walk his fair share, but with so few hits, he’s still got a 0.638 WHIP. Davis is hard to hit, too. He’s allowed a dozen hits in 20.1 innings. He’s already converted 17 saves and has 23 strikeouts. Ottavino already has 45.
The Rockies’ bullpen can be beat, but if you get to the back two, the game is over.
Colorado and San Francisco actually boast similar bullpen ERAs, but have gotten there different ways. The Rockies have two dominant guys at the end and some question marks in the middle innings. The recipe against the Rockies is to get to the pen early.
San Francisco has a deeper pen than the Rockies, but don’t have nearly the same firepower at the end of the game. Hunter Strickland is a good arm and Tony Watson has been an effective reliever for years, but they’re not nearly as dominant as Davis and Ottavino. Still, with Sam Dyson, Reyes Moronta and Will Smith, amongst others, providing quality innings, the options are far more plentiful for Bruce Bochy than for Bud Black.
MLB Pick
The Rockies offense hasn’t been great. They haven’t gotten nearly the production they need out of most of the lineup, but Colorado and San Francisco are still closely matched at the plate. The Giants are hitting better this month, but the Rockies are still a good offensive club and are playing at home in the thin air of Colorado.
Look for the Rockies to put some runs on the plate against Suarez who will have some issues with his breaking pitches in the thin air. Suarez is prone to the longball and the longball is a product of Coors Field.
Bettis is a veteran of pitching in the Mile-High City and has been the superior pitcher this season, just not at home. Look for Bettis to have issues in this game as well, leading to a high scoring affair.
Both starters don’t figure to last much past five innings, leaving the bullpens exposed. If the Rockies can get to the eighth with the lead, they get the win, but don’t count on that. The deeper bullpen in San Francisco should allow the Giants to win in what ultimately could be a close, shootout.
MLB Odds: Giants 9, Rockies 8
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