From their histories in the Big Apple, the rivalry between the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers is one of the game’s oldest and most storied battles. The latest iteration of the rivalry is set for Thursday evening and will be the first of 19 meetings in 2018 as the two teams meet head-to-head on Opening Day. The Dodgers holding a distinct advantage in the season opener, coming off a 104-win season and sending Clayton Kershaw to the bump opposite Ty Blach for the Giants.
First pitch for the game between the Giants and Dodgers is scheduled for Thursday, March 29, 2018, at 7:08 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
At home or on the road, it really didn’t matter last year for the Giants, they were just a bad team. Everything went wrong. Bumgarner was out for much of the year. Johnny Cueto was not himself. Matt Moore pitched horribly. The offense couldn’t score and definitely couldn’t hit for power.
With a couple offseason acquisitions to improve the bullpen and lineup, it seemed the Giants had addressed a number of their biggest flaws and put themselves in a position for a bit of a bounce back season.
The injury to Bumgarner has put a damper on expectations in San Francisco, but the Giants should still be better offensively after outscoring only the Padres in 2017.
Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen lengthen the lineup and along with Brandon Belt, Buster Posey, Joe Panik and Brandon Crawford, should form a rather respectable starting lineup.
The team now has a number of profession, experienced hitters who could battle against Kershaw to scratch across a few runs and possibly find success against a bullpen assuming Kershaw’s pitch count will be limited in his first start of the year.
After all, even in the Giants’ down year in 2017, San Francisco battled the Dodgers, winning eight of 19 games, a .421 winning percentage in a season where they won fewer than 40-percent of their games.
The Dodgers, for their part, slumped to the finish line in 2017 regular season, but pushed their way to the World Series in October.
This is much the same team though the offense will be without Justin Turner in the season opener. The team, however, is deep enough to cover his loss.
Probable Pitchers
Just a few days ago, it seemed we would be treated to a great pitching matchup with a pair of ace southpaws toeing the rubber.
Instead, we’re left with a bit of a pitching mismatch after the Giants’ Madison Bumgarner broke his hand on a comebacker in his final Spring Training game. The Dodgers will go with Clayton Kerhsaw, but instead of MadBum, his opponent will be fellow lefty Ty Blach.
Kershaw has been nearly unhittable this spring, pitching 21.1 scoreless innings, allowing only 12 hits and four walks while striking out 23. He appears to already be at the top of his game heading into Game 1 of 162.
The Dodgers’ ace is a five time ERA leader, three time wins leader and three time Cy Young Award winner. He’s coming off a season when he led in both wins and ERA while finishing second in the Cy Young, his sixth top-3 finish of his career. He’s finished top-5 in each of the last seven years, including 2016 when he was limited to 21 games.
Health has been a bit of issue for the lefty the last could years, but when he’s been on the mound—at least in the regular season—he’s been as good as anyone. Against the rival Giants, Kershaw has 22 wins, the most he has against any opponent. He’s also pitched to a 1.60 ERA and 0.831 WHIP in 297.1 innings and 41 games, more than a full-season sample size. We can easily expect another dominating outing on Thursday.
Given the impossible task of matching up against one of the game’s best will be second-year starter Ty Blach. The 27-year old southpaw pitched in just 17 innings before last year and finished 2017 with an 8-12 record, 4.78 ERA and 1.356 WHIP. Those are hardly the numbers you’d expect from an Opening Day starter.
Even with Bumgarner out, Blach is hardly the team’s best available starter, but Bruce Bochy opted to go with the young southpaw to keep the rest of his rotation in order and, as a result, here we are with Clayton Kershaw against Ty Blach on Opening Day.
Blach was a solid starter last year, overall. He had an inflated ERA, but still provided better than replacement level production. Of course, he was better at home than on the road, but pitched well in two games—10 innings—at Dodger Stadium. In those 10 frames, he allowed two runs and 10 hits, but only struck out three. In an era of high strikeout rates, Blach is an exception which—of course—makes him more reliant on his defense. He struck out just 73 in 163.2 innings last year, that’s an average of four per nine innings, one of the lowest rates in the game.
Live Betting
Statistically, both teams have had solid springs, finishing the Cactus League schedule right around-.500. While wins and losses in Spring Training hold little meaning, it’s always nice to get a few wins under ones belt heading into Opening Day and both clubs have done just that.
These two teams have met on Opening Day five times since 2002 with Los Angeles winning three of those five meetings, including each of the last three, all three of those were at Dodger Stadium.
The Giants and Dodgers have matched up in L.A. home openers five times since the 2008 season. The Dodgers have won four of those five games, but lost the most recent in 2014. Overall, Los Angeles has won eight of its last 10 home openers.
MLB Pick
The Dodgers are the better team. They won 40 more games in 2017 and while the Giants did suffer some bad luck, that doesn’t make up 40 games.
Yes, the Giants’ offense is better, but the pitching matchup is a big mismatch. Even an improved Giants’ offense will have issues scoring on Kershaw who hasn’t allowed a run all spring. Meanwhile, Blach will have troubles containing a deep Dodgers’ lineup.
Look for L.A. to score a couple runs early, add on a throughout the game and coast to a rather easy win. San Fran may scratch across a run or two against Kershaw and the pen before Kenley Jansen, but not enough to threaten Los Angeles’ chances on Thursday.
MLB Odds: Dodgers 5, Giants 2
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