ESPN’s first Sunday Night Baseball showcase game will feature division rivals as the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers square off in a series finale southern California. This nationally broadcast game is an excellent forum for the Giants to show they’re a vastly improved team over the 2017 version, but the injury-plagued roster will have its work cut out for it against the NL pennant winning Dodgers who, after a taste of the Fall Classic, have some unfinished business. Rich Hill gets his first start in this one while the Giants rotation remains in flux.
First pitch for the game between the Giants and Dodgers is scheduled for Sunday, April 1, 2018, at 8:37 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
This is the final game of the series between these two bitter rivals. While the Dodgers are the clearly superior team—particularly given the shambles the Bumgarner and Samardzija injuries have left the Giants’ rotation, rivalry games are always difficult to pick.
Case and point, even when the Giants had the worst record in the league last year, they still managed to beat the Dodgers—who had the most wins in baseball—eight times in 19 meetings. Sure, L.A. won the season series, but the last place Giants still won over 42-percent of their games head-to-head.
Given that, San Francisco could surely beat a diminished Dodgers team from the won that push all the way to the World Series last year.
Los Angeles isn’t as good of a team this year. They’re without Justin Turner—arguably their most consistent bat—and have a much shallower pitching staff both in the rotation and the pen. Meanwhile, the Giants are a better team, even with the current injuries in the rotation. San Francisco has more pop after struggling offensively last year.
All in all, these two teams are closer in terms of talent this year—and in Sunday’s game—than they were most of last year when the Giants still managed to win several games against L.A. It’s logical to expect the Giants to grab at least one game of this series. Is the series finale the day?
Probable Pitchers
The Dodgers were an elite pitching team last year, both in the rotation and in the pen. Without Yu Darvish, however, the L.A. rotation is still missing the No.2 behind Kershaw. As for the fourth starter, Rich Hill is likely one of the best fourth starters in the game.
Hill takes the ball in this Sunday night battle after going 12-8 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in 25 starts last year.
The 38-year old southpaw was a late bloomer and should continue without much decline, despite his age, giving the limited innings on his arm. That said, the Dodgers—and namely Dave Roberts—was cautious with him last year, often pulling him after two times through the order. Save for a game where he was allowed go to into the tenth with a no-hitter, Hill typically didn’t make it through more than six frames. He had only 135.2 innings in 25 starts.
With that, the bullpen should be involved for at least three innings—if not more—on Sunday even if Hill throws well. He should do that. His breaking ball is as good as ever and his spin rate is remarkable. HE induces weak contact due to the movement, but he’s also become quite a strikeout pitcher off that pitch with 11 K/9 in 2017.
Hill struggled through his spring outings, having some trouble with his curve. He needs that to be on point on Sunday. He allowed only one run in three different outings against the Giants last year though he never made it beyond six innings.
As for the Giants, Hill’s counterpart hasn’t been announced, but with the injuries in the rotation, it figures to be either Derek Holland or Chris Stratton.
Neither hurler earned their way on the roster, instead getting one almost by default. That said, neither have struggled too badly this spring either, putting up better spring numbers than Hill.
As for Holland though, he’s coming off a 6.20 ERA in 29 games with the White Sox where he really struggled down the stretch. Stratton, meanwhile, was better, serving as a fill-in starter for the Giants a year ago—much the same role he has now—going 4-4 with a 3.68 ERA in 58.2 innings. Despite the strong ERA, however, he posted an elevated WHIP at 1.483 driven primarily by a high walk rate.
Live Betting
The Dodgers won 40 more games than the Giants in 2017 and scored 131 more runs. The pitching was cream of the crop, but the offense also provided a sizable advantage.
For any team against the Giants last year, the biggest edge was power. San Francisco had next to none with Brandon Belt the leading home run hitter, hitting 18 homers in an abbreviated season.
When healthy, Belt has a solid power bat and Buster Posey is a good all-around hitter even if he is light on the power, but the Giants needed a lot more thump. Brandon Crawford, Hunter Pence and Joe Panik all under-performed. Add in Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen and this lineup suddenly has plenty of depth and a lot more pop.
The team, of course, is still missing a massive 30+ homer stick, but with Belt, McCutchen and Longoria, there are at least three players who could hit 25 with a few more able to swing a bit looser with less pressure on them.
While the Giant offense is better, the Dodgers are worse now that Turner is on the shelf. Los Angeles has the depth to overcome it. Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Yasiel Puig and Chris Taylor still form a strong top of the order, but Turner was a key cog in the middle.
In the bullpen, the Giants also added on, bringing in Tony Watson, helping to mitigate the early health questions around Mark Melancon and Will Smith.
The Dodgers still have Kenley Jansen to shut down the ninth inning, but the sixth, seventh and eighth will also need to be handled by the pen with Hill on the hill. In that respect, there are questions. Pedro Baez was cast off in the postseason. Can he be the primary set up man? Scott Alexander is a good lefty, but is that enough?
MLB Pick
These teams are much closer than they were last year, but the Giants rotation is in flux due to injuries and that’s where the Dodgers take the advantage in this game, even with a likely shorter outing by Hill.
Los Angeles has a good enough bullpen—even better than that based on last year’s numbers—to hold a lead against the Giants.
Yes, the Giants are improved and yes, they should win a game in this series, but don’t look for that to be Sunday night. It all comes down to who is starting and, right now, if it isn’t Cueto, that’s an issue for the Giants.
MLB Odds: Dodgers 6, Giants 4
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