The west coast’s best rivalry continues as the Los Angeles Dodgers welcome the San Francisco Giants to town for a best-of-three series starting on Monday. The Dodgers enter the series with the edge in terms of roster and standings, sitting in a tight fought battle atop the NL West while the Giants do everything in their power to hold-on on the fringes of contention. With that, San Francisco should be plenty motivated and in a rivalry series like this, you never can tell even if one team—like the Dodgers—is clearly better on paper.
First game of the three-game series between the Giants and Dodgers is scheduled for Monday, August 13, 2018, at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium with games the following two nights. The first and final game of the series will be shown on MLB Network.
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Odds Analysis
While the Dodgers are in a better postseason position than the Giants, its San Francisco that has the advantage head-to-head, winning seven of their first 13 meetings this season. Of course, Los Angeles has a couple blowout wins, giving them a 11-run advantage in the run-differential category in their season series.
The Dodgers were one of the biggest stories at the trade deadline with the additions of Brian Dozier and Manny Machado, but they’re 5-5 in August and 5-8 in their last 13 games, cooling off from a hot couple of months.
The Giants, on the other side of this matchup, are a below-.500 team, barely. After standing pat at the deadline, they’ve 3-6 and are 8-14 in their last 22 games.
Trends don’t have either team playing their best baseball right now, but they’re more favorable to the Dodgers who also have scored more than 100 more runs than the Giants on the year with an OPS over 50-poitns higher. More recently, since the All-Star break, the Giants have seen their offense take a nose dive while the Dodgers’ offense—despite the additions—remains stagnant statistically.
The Giants have a .680 team OPS since the deadline and a .307 OBP. They’re also showing very little power with just 16 home runs compared to 34 for the Dodgers who have played only a couple more games.
On the mound, these two teams have nearly identical bullpen ERA while the starting pitching matchup is broken down below.
Probable Pitchers
In an interesting battle between division rivals, we’ll be treated to exclusively southpaws starting for both teams in this three-game series.
The premier matchup of this series will be on Monday when the Dodgers and Giants send their respective aces to the mound in a battle between Madison Bumgarner and Clayton Kershaw.
Over the years, this matchup has been a common one for these two teams with wins on both sides of the fence. It’s also a fun matchup for the fans as we’ll be treated to a tightly-contested, low-scoring affair.
Both Bumgarner and Kershaw, despite injuries earlier this year, are still elite arms.
Bumgarner comes into the game with a 4-4 record with a 2.69 ERA and 1.249 WHIP. The WHIP is elevated for where he is accustomed due to a higher than normal walk rate. His strikeout rate is also a bit down at just 7.7 per nine innings, leaving him with a 2.1 strikeout to walk ratio.
The lower strikeouts and higher walks lead to his 3.58 FIP which is nearly a full run higher than his ERA. Still, the FIP is very good, largely because of just five home runs allowed in 73.2 innings of work.
In his career, the 28-year old southpaw is 15-10 with a 2.60 ERA in 30 games against the Dodgers. He’s pitched to a 1.044 WHIP in 190.2 innings. This year he allowed three runs in six innings against L.A. back in June, taking the loss in that game.
Kershaw, on the other hand, is 0-1 in two starts against the Giants this year, allowing two runs on 14 hits in 13 innings of work. Over his career, the 30-year old lefty is 22-10 with a 1.60 ERA and 0.847 WHIP in 43 games and 310.1 innings against the Giants.
Kershaw is also a three-time Cy Young Award winner and has led the NL in ERA on five separate occasions. With just 17 starts this year, he’s short of the numbers to be in contention for the ERA crown this year, but he’s 5-5 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.066 WHIP in his 17 starts. His WHIP is higher than his career norms, but not by much though his strikeout and walk numbers are both better than Bumgarner’s this year, giving up a superior 3.10 FIP.
In the regular season, overall, Kershaw’s career trumps that of Bumgarner, though Bumgarner is one of the most heralded postseason pitcher and even though this series in in the regular season, for a Giants team on the brink of dropping out of contention, every game is essentially a postseason game in terms of importance.
Moving on to the final two games of this series, the Dodgers will turn to Alex Wood and Hyu-Jin Ryu on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively while the Giants go with Andrew Suarez and Derek Holland.
Both Wood and Ryu will be coming off the DL to make their respective starts and are pushing Ross Stripling and Kenta Maeda to the bullpen. That should strengthen an area that needs some help with the injury to Kenley Jansen.
Even with his stay on the DL, Wood still leads the Dodgers in starts with 22 and innings with 123.1. He’s 7-6 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.168 WHIP. His FIP is right in line with his ERA as he’s been a very sturdy start for the Dodgers.
Before the injury, Wood’s last start saw him go six strong against the Astros, allowing just two runs—one earned—on four hits. Counting that start, he’s got 10 straight starts giving up three runs or less. That’ll keep your team in the game.
As for Ryu, he’s only made six starts this year and has been on the 60-day disabled list. He’s 3-0 with a 2.12 ERA in 29.2 innings over those six starts but may be rusty.
When healthy, however, the 31-year old southpaw has been a very reliable big-league starter with a 3.33 career ERA in 88 games. While rehabbing in Oklahoma City and Rancho Cucamonga, he’s combined for nine innings and allowed just seven hits and one run with no walks and seven strikeouts.
As for the Giants Game 2 and Game 3 starters, Suarez is 4-8 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.328 WHIP In 110.2 innings pitched. He’s got the second most innings for the Giants behind Holland who is 6-8 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.275 WHIP.
Both Suarez and Holland have given the Giants innings, but Holland’s innings have been a bit better than Suarez’s.
The 25-year old rookie, Suarez, has been great in his last five starts. Before that, he had a 3.75 ERA. In those five starts, he has allowed 22 runs, all earned, in 26.2 innings.
Interestingly, however, despite his number of innings, he has yet to face the Dodgers in his 20 games played.
Holland, however, faced the Dodgers three times this season. San Francisco was 1-2 in those three starts and Holland allowed 10 runs, nine earned, in 13.1 innings.
Live Betting
Offensively, the Giants are missing Brandon Belt who has been—arguably—the best hitter on the team this year.
Without Belt’s team leading 14-home runs or his 128 OPS+, the Giants are left with a team of average—or slightly better—hitters. Buster Posey isn’t having his normal season. He’s got a 111 OPS+ which, allowing with Andrew McCutchen leads the team amongst those active and having at least 100 at-bats.
Without Belt, the Giants lack a true middle of the batting order, but—on the plus side—they also lack too much of a black hole at the bottom of the order, unless Hunter Pence is playing. The rest of the offense at least gives the Giants a quality at bat.
Meanwhile, the Giants have the edge in this series in the bullpen. The Dodgers are without Jansen and while Maeda and Stripling are both quality arms added to the pen, they’ve been conditioned as starters most of the year and will take some adjustment time to the warm up regimen of relievers.
While Dave Roberts is left piecing the final innings of each game together, Bruce Bochy has Sam Dyson, Tony Watson and Mark Melancon as former closers with Will Smith getting the ninth inning a lot and Reyes Moronta pitching to a 1.72 ERA.
The Giants have more quality—and proven—depth in the bullpen while it’s the Dodgers that have that on offense.
After a hot start in blue, Manny Machado has cooled a bit, but still has a 111 OPS+ in his 98 plate appearances. Brian Dozier has a 173 OPS+ driven by a .400 OBP and three homers in 10 games. With those two up the middle, Roberts can shift Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez around.
With Matt Kemp slumping some in the second half, the Dodgers have the depth of players to mix and match, giving Kemp, Hernandez, Joc Pederson, and Yasiel Puig the best matchups to succeed. Counting Machado and Dozier, the Dodgers have 10 players with an OPS+ of at least 106 and nine over 110.
This team has tons more power than the Giants. Muncy and Yasmani Grandal have 26 and 20 homers respectively while Machado has 26 combined with his time in Baltimore.
MLB Pick
The Dodgers are the better offensive team though they do have a big issue in the bullpen with Jansen out. Even with a good bullpen ERA, the general thought was this team was missing an eighth inning man. Now, they’re lost in the latter innings. The Giants could exploit this for a win or two in the series.
Neither team is playing at their best right now so a sweep by either side seems far-fetched. Whoever wins the series opener figures to capture the series. With a pitching matchup as sweet as Bumgarner versus Kershaw, it’s sure to be a tightly-contested, low scoring game and with the depleted Dodger bullpen, the edge goes to the Giants.
From there, look for the Giants to steal one of the two final games as well. In a rivalry series, it’s always hard to predict, but the Giants are a team that’s hard to count out. Bruce Bochy is one of the best managers in baseball and will have his team ready to take advantage of the missing certainly the Dodgers’ bullpen.
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