The regular season is here and that means meaningful weekend baseball and plenty of quality lines and spreads to pick. Spring Training lacks predictability with players coming in and out of games and minor leaguers impacting outcomes. Now, the rosters have been trimmed to 25 and things are a bit clearer heading into the 2019 season’s first slate of weekend games.
There are a number of great matchups between divisional foes on the slate for Saturday, including a showdown between the Indians and Twins, one between the Braves and Phillies, and one between the Cardinals and Brewers.
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MLB Odds – Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins Game Preview
First pitch for the game between the Indians and Twins is scheduled for Saturday, March 30, 2019, at 2:10 p.m. ET at Target Field. The matchup will be shown on the team’s local networks.
Odds Analysis
Following a down year, the Twins changed things up, bringing in Rocco Baldelli to manage the club and adding Marwin Gonzalez and Nelson Cruz in an effort to try and close the gap with the Indians in the AL Central.
Minnesota is the only real competition for the Indians making this opening week match-up on Saturday all the more important, particularly when the Indians will look to Trevor Bauer who appeared to have turned the corner into becoming an ace last year.
The Indians’ primary advantage over the Twins is in the starting rotation. Offensively, Minnesota is deeper and the bullpen appears to have a few more answers as well.
Jose Ramirez is expected in the opening day lineup for the Indians despite his injury, but the team will be battling in this series without Francisco Lindor. That, coupled with an already light outfield, leaves the offense a bit shallow.
In the bullpen, Brad Hand is the only sure thing. He’ll lockdown the ninth inning, but bridging the gap could prove a challenge even with a rotation likely to give six innings an outing. There are still an inning or two a game that need to be covered before Hand can take the ball.
Cleveland had a 4.60 ERA out of the pen last year compared to the Twins’ 4.45. Neither are stellar in relief though Minnesota did add Blake Parker and will use Adalberto Meija and Martin Perez out of relief to start the year.
Probable Pitchers
Offensive concerns aside, the starting pitching does heavily favor the Indians with Bauer on the bump opposite Jake Odorizzi for the Twinkies.
Odorizzi actually started opening day for the Twins last year, but didn’t pitch all that well, ending the year 7-10 with a 4.49 ERA and 97 ERA+. Going back to his days with the Rays, he’s had a few good seasons, but has settled into the role of a mid-to-back of the rotation starter.
The 29-year old right-hander was shelled some in spring training, but he was working to tweak his delivery, primarily streamlining his lower half to increase his fastball velocity and movement. We’ll see how that translates to the mound in real game action.
As for Bauer, he’s coming off a 12-6 season with a 2.21 ERA and 1.089 WHIP in 28 games. He missed some time which kept him out of the Cy Young contention, but the 28-year old right-hander still finished sixth in the voting and was, arguably, the team’s best pitcher when he was on the mound, pitching to a better ERA and FIP than Corey Kluber.
Bauer was 2-1 with a 2.50 ERA in three starts against the Twins last year, pitching 18 innings and striking out 25. Odorizzi, on the other hand, was 0-3 with a 7.23 ERA in five starts and 23.2 innings against the Tribe.
MLB Pick
The Twins have more depth in the bullpen and on offense. Cleveland scored their share of runs last year, but their team has been pared down to save money and retain the deep rotation.
Minnesota should be able to hold its own head-to-head against Cleveland this year, particularly if it can work the counts and force the Tribe to go to the pen early.
On Saturday, however, look for a well-pitched six innings from Bauer and enough in relief to close this one out. Cleveland’s had a ton of success against Odorizzi and even with a tweaked delivery, he doesn’t figure to fair well. Cleveland gets off to an early lead and rides it to victory.
Indians at Twins Pick: Indians 6, Twins 3
MLB Odds – Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Game Preview
First pitch for the game between the Braves and Phillies is scheduled for Saturday, March 30, 2019, at 4:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. The matchup will be shown on FS1.
Odds Analysis
The Braves and Phillies were two of the bigger surprise teams in the league throughout the first half of 2018. From there, Atlanta continued to soar, nabbing the NL East title while the Phillies floundered and eventually finished below-.500.
The Phillies were clearly not satisfied with the finish and made major changes this offseason, including completely overhauling an offense that was in the bottom half of baseball in runs scored by bringing in Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Jean Segura and Andrew McCutchen.
Philadelphia struggled defensively last year, too, and really addressed the issues there with these moves as well, none bigger the Rhys Hoskins going back to first base. This team is so deep now that Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez and Maikel Franco make up the bottom of the order after hitting at the top and middle of the order last year.
On the Braves side of things offensively, they were the better hitting team last year and have three legitimate MVP candidates in Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Josh Donaldson. The latter is healthy and a big cog in the order. He also gives the Braves some nice options off the bench in this game with Johan Camargo who could easily come up with a big hit on Saturday.
Late in the game pitching is also better for the Phillies. They added David Robertson, giving them a sure thing in the ninth inning and allowing the big, electric arms of Seranthony Dominguez and Hector Neris to be available in key spots earlier in the game. The Braves, like have a lot of good, young arms, but are missing that bullpen stabilizer in the ninth innings. Jonny Venters is the primary veteran voice.
Probable Pitchers
Bryse Wilson earned his spot in the rotation this spring. He added a change up last year which was the difference maker and coupled with his slider, it really allows his fastball to play.
He gets the start in this game opposition Nick Pivetta for the Phillies in what is a battle of a couple lesser-known pitchers.
With Wilson and Pivetta will be key for their respective teams in 2019. Wilson showed excellent control this spring, particularly with the slider, and dumbfounded the opposition in Grapefruit League play. He got a taste of big-league action at 20-years old last year and struggled in seven innings. That’s hardly enough of a sample size.
In the minors, Wilson had a phenomenal year. He was lights out in five starts in High-A ball, pitched very well in Double-A and got five games—including three starts—in Triple-A where he went 3-0, striking out 28 in 22 innings. The long ball has been an issue here and there this spring and in his brief time in Triple-A, but he’s got a great assortment of pitches.
As for Pivetta, he brings a bit more experience as this will be his third big league season. He’s 15-24 in his career with a 5.33 ERA, but has improved. He had a 4.77 ERA last year in 164 innings, but posted a much more impressive 3.80 FIP as he had a 3.69 K:BB ratio and allowed one less home run in 31 more innings of work.
Like Wilson, Pivetta offers great stuff and plenty of optimism, but he still needs to prove it. His peripherals were good last year, but can that translate into better common stats? The Braves are a good place to start. He faced them five times last year, posting a 3.12 ERA and 1.192 WHIP in 26 innings.
MLB Pick
These teams are evenly matched, but the Phillies have a deeper bullpen—or at least a more proven option in the ninth. They also have the deeper lineup and will try to prove something at home against the home-town fans.
Look for Wilson to pitch okay, but allow a few runs in a game where he’ll have a shorter leash given his lack of experience. Pivetta isn’t likely to go that deep either, but he’s been good against Atlanta in his young career and should carry that into this game in the tune of a couple runs allowed in five frames.
Overall, look for a bit of back and forth in this one with the Phillies coming out ahead.
Braves at Phillies Pick: Phillies 6, Braves 5
MLB Odds – St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers Game Preview
First pitch for the game between the Cardinals and Brewers is scheduled for Saturday, March 30, 2019, at 7:10 p.m. ET at Miller Park. The matchup will be shown on the team’s local Fox Sports channels.
Odds Analysis
The Brewers managed to win the NL Central in Game 163 against the Cubs last year despite serious questions about the rotation. They used an opener strategy at times in the playoffs and leaned heavily on a strong offense and even stronger bullpen.
Going into the 2019 season, the bullpen is compromised with Jeremy Jeffress and Corey Knebel on the injured list along with Jimmy Nelson and Brent Suter, two starters who would push guys like Corbin Burnes into the pen had they been healthy.
The pen still has Josh Hader, arguably the most dominant reliever in the game, but Milwaukee will have to pick their spots with him and may be forced to use him in the ninth rather than as a man to get out of a key jam earlier in the contest.
There are still some quality arms in the pen, but the unit as a whole is down without two of their better arms.
As for the Cardinals, they know a thing or two about bullpen woes. They suffered through their share in the first half of 2018, but seemed to work things out down the stretch as they turned to the better arms regardless of name recognition or salary.
Most of those arms are still here. Jordan Hicks continues grow and will benefit from having Andrew Miller cleaning things up ahead of him.
On offense, the Brewers are strong. They’re using Mike Moustakas at second base which is question mark defensively, but at the plate, he’s slotted to hit in the sixth hole in a rather deep lineup. The team has the defending NL MVP in Christian Yelich, an elite on base machine at the top in Lorenzo Cain and a number of underrated guys all around.
The Cardinals really beefed up their offense in acquiring Paul Goldschmidt whose mind should be clear now that he’s signed an extension. Goldy’s looked good at the end of spring and allows the rest of the lineup to fall into place. Matt Carpenter doesn’t have to be miscast in the middle of the order. He can lead off where he’s put up his best numbers. Marcell Ozuna is better protected and could be primed for a huge year.
Probable Pitchers
Both of Saturday’s starters got most of their appearances in the bullpen last year as Brandon Woodruff takes the ball for the Brewers opposite Dakota Hudson for the Cardinals.
In fact, Hudson pitched exclusively out of the pen in his rookie year in 2018. In 26 appearances, he was 4-1 with a 2.63 ERA though he had a 1.06 K:BB ratio. Despite the walks, he found success as he kept the ball down and in the yard.
Those walk numbers will have to go down to find success in the pen, but he looked good in spring with just six walks in 21.2 grapefruit league innings. He was the last man standing for the final rotation spot after going 2-0 with a 1.25 ERA and 0.969 WHIP this spring. He’s thrown the ball exceptionally well.
The 24-year old right-hander will now have to show he’s capable of going two or three times through an order on the biggest stage.
Woodruff got a bit more exposure to starting in the big leagues than Hudson last year, but still only four of his 19 starts came in the rotation.
He was an important pitcher on the staff down the stretch, but that work came in the pen and while he started a game in the NLDS, he went just three innings as Craig Counsell leaned heavily on his elite bullpen.
In the end, it’s time for the 26-year old right-hand to put up. He’s getting up there for a prospect though he lost that tag already.
The righty is coming off a strong spring with a 2.55 ERA and 0.962 WHIP in 17.2 innings. He struck out a whopping 26 batters in that time. That was enough to earn him a spot in the rotation and send last year’s opening day starter, Chase Anderson, to the bullpen.
Overall, the righty is 5-3 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.254 WHIP in 27 big league games, including 12 starts. He had a 3.61 ERA and 1.181 WHIP last year with a 3.30 FIP and 114 ERA+.
MLB Pick
Hudson is coming into this game throwing very well though Woodruff has earned praises this spring as well. Look for both youngsters to pitch well, though each may be limited a bit in their first start of the regular season, given their age and experience. That puts some pressure on the bullpens which would typically be in Milwaukee’s wheel house if not for a slew of injuries.
Look for Miller to come up with a couple big late-game outs against some of Milwaukee’s big lefties like Yelick, Shaw and Moustakas to seal the deal for the Cardinals on the road.
Cardinals at Brewers Pick: Cardinals 5, Brewers 4
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