The Seattle Mariners are quickly falling out of the AL West race. They’re still within striking distance of the Houston Astros, but the Mariners are in the midst of a difficult stretch and it doesn’t get easier on Saturday when the Mariners take on the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park for the middle game of a three game series. Seattle has Mike Leake slated to make that start as they go against the Red Sox’s young southpaw, Eduardo Rodriguez.
First pitch for the game between the Mariners and Red Sox is scheduled for Saturday, June 23, 2018, at 4:15 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. The matchup will be shown on FOX.
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Odds Analysis
The Mariners and Red Sox split a four-game series last weekend. The first three games of the series were all one-run affairs while the series finale went to the Red Sox in a 9-3 final.
Boston showed some offense in the series finale, but given these are two tightly matched teams, the first three games may show a bit more and if they’re any indication, the bullpens may be sizable factors in this game.
The Red Sox have the superior bullpen ERA, but both Boston and Seattle have several good options in the later innings. The acquisition of Alex Colome earlier this season has certainly bolstered the bridge to Edwin Diaz who already has 27 saves and 62 strikeouts in 38 innings. Colome’s been a bit vulnerable and his track record against the Sox is a bit inconsistent. Overall, he’s allowed 20 runs and 16 walks against Boston in 37 innings, but hasn’t allowed a home run.
Seattle won two of the three one-run affairs against Boston last weekend, including a 1-0 game last Saturday. In that one, Colome and Diaz shut the door after a good start from Wade LeBlanc.
Despite those two close victories, the Sox have the more reliable pen. Diaz is great, but Craig Kimbrel is more proven. He’s having just as good of a season, too.
Setting up for Kimbrel, the Red Sox have Joe Kelly and Matt Barnes though nobody is as proven as Colome, the former Rays’ closer.
Probable Pitchers
While this could very well be a matchup of the two AL Wild Card teams and a preview of the Wild Card game, it’s a safe bet that neither starter slated to pitch on Saturday will be toeing the rubber in a win-or-go-home Wild Card game. Both Mike Leake and Eduardo Rodriguez are throwing the ball well right now, but neither starter is the top-gun in either rotation.
As for Leake, the veteran right-hander has made a name for himself as a dependable middle-of-the-rotation arm, but even that’s been a stretch the last couple years. He, however, has seemed to rediscover himself in Seattle.
The righty is 4-1 with a 3.17 ERA over his last eight starts, but the one loss came against Boston last Sunday when he gave up five runs in six innings of work. He’s struggled mightily against the Red Sox in his career a 0-3 record and 6.75 ERA in five starts.
Leake will need to overcome those struggles to put Seattle in a place to get a much needed win. Overall, he’s generally one to give his team a chance to win the game. He’s 7-4 in 15 starts this year. Yes, his 4.47 ERA and 4.50 FIP are a bit high, but he leads the team in innings with 92.2. He routinely goes six innings, often more, as the 30-year old will cover innings even when he doesn’t have his best stuff.
Eduardo Rodriguez, on the other hand, is a bit different. He doesn’t go as deep into game as Alex Cora sometimes has a quick hook with the 25-year old southpaw.
Despite that, when E-Rod is in the game, he’s pitched very well this year. He’s 9-1 overall, boasting a 3.59 ERA and 3.49 FIP. His walk and home run rates are in line with his career norms, but he’s getting more swings and misses, allowing him to get out of jams a bit easier. His strikeout to walk ratio is a career best 3.75.
In Rodriguez’s last start, the lefty held this same Mariners team to two runs on six hits while pitching on the road. He’ll get the start at home on Saturday against the same Seattle team and we’ll see how the Mariners are able to adjust and if E-Rod can adjust back if needed.
Live Betting
The bullpens are close and the starting pitching matchup has two starters both throwing well headed into battle. Based on the arms, this one could be another close contest.
That said, Leake hasn’t exactly thrived in his career against Boston. The current Red Sox crop of players are batting a combined .321 against him with a .825 OPS. It’s not really a surprise. Leake doesn’t have electric stuff and the Sox have a great offense.
Boston has scored the third most runs in baseball, 52 more than the Mariners. Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez are two of the top AL MVP candidates at this point in the season. Betts has missed several games, but still has 18 home runs and 38 RBIs to go with his .340/.424/.688 slash line. Martinez has a 1.004 OPS of his own with 22 homers and 55 RBIs.
Those two alone can put up some runs, but Mitch Moreland is having a fine year with a .884 OPS and 10 dingers while Andrew Benintendi on most other teams would be the primary storyline with a .292/.379/.528 slash line. In Boston, he’s merely the third best hitter on the roster.
While it’s not all great news at the plate for Boston, even some of those that’ve had rough seasons have good numbers against Leake. Bradley is batting .180 with a .574 OPS, but has a homer and three hits against Leake in 11 at bats. Rafael Devers is 3-for-5 with a homer and four RBIs.
The Mariners’ offense has picked things up without Robinson Cano. Dee Gordon is back at second and has seen Rodriguez well in limited at bats. He’s an electric guy at the top and along with Jean Segura—who is hitting .334—brings speed.
Mitch Haniger, Nelson Cruz Ryon Healy, Denard Span and Ben gamel all have an OPS+ of at least 110. Nobody on the Seattle roster is having a year comparable to Betts of Martinez, but their offense has fewer holes than Boston’s.
MLB Pick
Both the Mariners and Red Sox are on pace for 100-wins. Seattle may fall short of the mark, but there’s no denying these are two of the best teams in baseball.
This could very well be a preview of the AL Wild Card game, but based on the ballpark and the Mariners’ struggles the last couples games against the best of the best, look for the Sox to come away with the win.
E-Rod is getting the job done. He’s been great at Fenway this year and has done well against the Mariners in his career. While the Seattle offense is swinging well, look for Rodriguez to throw a quality start in this one, leaving the game with a slight lead.
From there, the Boston bullpen should be able to close the door.
In the end, look for a close, well-played game, but the Sox are the better team and playing in Boston gives them the upper hand.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 5, Mariners 4
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