It’s been an interesting first half for both the Seattle Mariners and Colorado Rockies as they meet on Sunday for the finale of their weekend series and first halves. Both teams will look to head into the All-Star break with a win under their belt and feeling good heading in the second half. Seattle, of course, is sitting in a better position than the Rockies, but both will be playing in meaningful games coming out of the break, pushing for the postseason.
First pitch for the game between the Mariners and Rockies is scheduled for Sunday, July 15, 2018, at 3:10 p.m. ET at Coors Field. The matchup will be televised locally on the local broadcast channels.
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Odds Analysis
The Rockies were 8-17 from May 30 through June 27 as they plummeted from first to fourth in the NL West standings. After hitting their low point on, the Rockies have begun to play better baseball lately, winning nine of 12 and getting back into the division race.
Colorado scored 19 against Arizona to win on Wednesday night, but the pitching has been central to the Rockies’ success over the last couple weeks. The Rockies have allowed no more than a single run in six of their last 11 games. The rotation is carrying this team, but the bullpen has come together.
The Rockies have the worst bullpen ERA in the National League right now, but that’s not indicative of how the Colorado relievers are throwing right now. Wade Davis has allowed one run on four hits over his last seven appearances and has five saves in that time.
Adam Ottavino is the key to it all. He’s healthy and setting up. His 1.74 ERA and 0.944 WHIP—particularly as a Rockie—shows just how dominant he’s been.
Of course, the Mariners’ bullpen is still better overall than Colorado’s. Seattle has already gotten 36 saves from Edwin Diaz as the Mariners have become the master of the one-run game. With a measly +14 run differential, the Mariners are 23-games over-.500, sporting a record 10 games better than their Pythagorean record.
Given that, the Mariners are a bit overrated, but they’re getting clutch hitting and good bullpen work in close, late games to allow them to win those type of contests way more often than not.
That said, Seattle is just 3-4 in their last seven games though they’re still 11-4 in their last 15.
Probable Pitchers
Mike Leake will get the ball for the Mariners in this game, coming off back-to-back rough starts against the Angels. A new opponent should help, but playing in Coors Field could prove to be an issue. He’s pitched there just once, allowing six runs and eight hit in 4.1 innings. It’s a tough place to try and get back on track.
Even with his latest struggles, Leake still put together a respectable first half, going 8-6 with a 4.36 ERA. His 1.331 WHIP is a bit high as a result of 9.9 hits per nine innings, but he’s been good at limiting walks.
Leake’s a serviceable mid-rotation arm. He doesn’t strike many out and is thus dependent on the defense which is thankfully pretty good in Seattle. That’s a big part of why he’s been better with the Mariners than he was in St. Louis.
The 30-year old right-hander won’t give Seattle a ton of stellar performances, but he’s usually dependable to keep the team in the game. After all, the Mariners are 13-6 in games he starts even if the bullpen has been credited with five of those wins.
Still, he’s lost back-to-back games now and has allowed 11 runs—eight earned—on 21 hits over just eight innings in that two-game span. That’s not overly promising.
On the other side of this matchup, the Rockies haven’t announced their starter for Sunday, but Tyler Anderson would be on rotation to make the start.
The 28-year old southpaw has been worth 3.4 WAR and has pitched rather well with a 6-3 record and 3.76 ERA despite getting half his starts in a hitters’ haven in Colorado.
The lefty has been 27-percent better than the average Major League starter according to ERA+ and has pitched solidly at home and on the road. While Coors provides challenges, Anderson has a 4.05 ERA in nine starts at home this year. He has allowed 10 homers in those nine starts, but has limited the damage.
Over his last three starts, Anderson has been on top of his game. He’s thrown 22 innings in those three games and has allowed just one runs on nine hits while walking seven and striking out 25. Those are mighty impressive numbers, particularly against good teams like the Dodgers, Giants and Diamondbacks.
Live Betting
The Rockies have outscored the Mariners by 69 runs this year, but much of that is driven by the ballparks each call home.
Seattle has a strong lineup with several All-Stars including Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger and Nelson Cruz.
Segura is batting .329 with a .358 OBP. He’s been a doubles machine and has added 14 steals, combining with Dee Gordon to bring plenty of speed to the order while setting the table for the big boys in Haniger and Cruz in the middle.
Haniger just keeps getting better. He’s hit 18 homers and has a team high 65 RBIs while putting up a .274/.360/.500 slash line. Meanwhile, Cruz is seemingly getting better with age. Now in his age-37 season he’s got a .901 OPS and 22 home runs. Ryon Healy and Kyle Seager offer a bit more pop for the Mariners as well while Denard Span is batting .300 and getting on base at a solid clip.
What makes the Seattle offense so interesting is that they’ve got a lot of different hitters with different skill sets. They can make things happen on the base paths with Gordon and Segura or hit the ball out. They have guys like Ben Gamel and Span who can just blend into the order.
For the Rockies, they’ve gotten some power recently from Ian Desmond and Carlos Gonzalez has started to swing the bat better, but Nolan Arenado is still the key piece to the offense with his .990 OPS and 23 bombs. Charlie Blackmon isn’t the player he was last year, but he’s still elite and Trevor Story is hitting for both average and power—though he’s still getting struck out, too.
There are pieces for the Rockies, but the Colorado offense while it has generated more runs is also more limited in how it scores. The Mariners have the better average and OBP, but Colorado has the edge in slugging percentage.
MLB Pick
Seattle has been the better and more consistent team this year, but the Rockies have the personnel to contend with the Mariners and they have the hotter pitcher on the mound, too.
Look for Anderson to continue to pitch well, perplexing the Mariners’ hitters, even at Coors Field. While the stadium is conducive to giving up runs, look for Anderson to minimize the damage and hand Bud Black six quality innings while the Rockies hitters connect a couple times with Leake, giving Anderson a lead as he leaves the game.
While the Rockies’ bullpen has been an issue all year, they’ve been throwing better lately. Look for that bullpen—along with the offense—to do enough to get the Rockies a win at home in the finale of the first half.
MLB Odds: Rockies 7, Mariners 5
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