Despite a better run differential, the Los Angeles Angels sit 11 games back of the Seattle Mariners as the two teams prepare for a weekend series head-to-head in Anaheim. The Angels figure to be sellers at the deadline as they sit 11 games out of the second Wild Card and a couple games under-.500. Meanwhile, despite a worse overall differential, the Mariners are in position to by, making a push for their first postseason in years. Can that momentum carry the Mariners in this series or will the Angels embrace their role as spoilers and get to spoiling a bit early?
First game of the three-game series between the Mariners and Angels is scheduled for Friday, July 27, 2018, at 10:07 p.m. ET at Angels Stadium with a night game on Saturday and a day game on Sunday to wrap up the weekend set. All three games will be televised locally.
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Odds Analysis
Despite the sixth best run differential in the AL, the Angels are all but eliminated in the chase for October and are 9-17 in their last 26 games.
The Angels haven’t been able to find the right blend of hitting and pitching with both having clear areas of weakness for Los Angeles.
That said, they did win their last series against the Mariners and are an even-.500 against them over their last six head-to-head games. The season series, however, favors Seattle seven games to five.
Speaking of Seattle, they come into this series holding onto the AL’s second wild card spot despite a bit of an anomaly based on their run differential. At just +2, there’s a clear expectation for the Mariners to regress towards the mean in the second half which would be a .500 record.
The Mariners have certainly been doing that lately, going 5-10 in their last 15 games. Of course, that’s not how statistics and averages work. Still, we’re seeing chinks in the armor for Seattle and they’re starting to play closer to their true level of talent. They’re 14-16 in their last 30 games playing right around .500. That’s what their Pythagorean record suggests is their true talent level.
While the gap in the standings between these teams is in the double digits, the statistics show these two teams are much closer in terms of talent.
The Angels, for instance, have outscored the Mariners by 19 runs and have hit 12 more homers though the two teams have nearly identical OPS numbers as a team. The Angels have a few more walks and more homers while the Mariners have a better average and more total extra base hits.
The better average lends itself to some clutch late game base hits. Those have led directly to late, close-game wins that have driven up the Seattle win total relative to its run differential. That’s something in Seattle’s corner for this matchup. Los Angeles brings more swing and miss.
On the mound, these two teams have bullpen ERAs within one-one hundredth of run of each other as of Wednesday. That’s indistinguishable in terms of production, though the Angels pen has 60 more innings while Seattle has 17 more saves. With Edwin Diaz, the Seattle ninth is much more locked down the Angels’ final inning.
Probable Pitchers
The series between these two divisional foes kicks off with a pitching showdown between two southpaws who’ve played much more important roles in their respective rotations than most would have thought preseason.
For the Mariners, the Game 1 starter for this series is lefty Wade LeBlanc. LeBlanc beat the White Sox a week ago, tossing a career-high 10 strikeouts over 7.1 innings to get the win. He’s been a pleasant surprise for the Mariners and is 6-1 with a 3.25 ERA in 15 starts since joining the rotation. Of his six wins as a starter, two have already come against the Angels.
Including five relief appearances, LeBlanc has a 3.44 ERA and 1.128 WHIP. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher despite the 10 Ks in his last start, but he’s got great control with just 19 walks in 96.2 innings.
On the other side of this pitching matchup is the Angels lefty Andrew Heaney.
Heaney’s got a better pedigree than LeBlanc and certainly had the better upside coming into the year, but he had a 7.06 ERA last year in 21.2 innings. Now, he is coming off a win in his last outing, topping the Astros with a one-run, six-inning outing. He’s been one of the Angels best arms all year and has been especially good at home. He’s 6-1 with a tiny 1.33 ERA in his last eight home starts.
That all bodes well for the Angels, but the Halo’s southpaw has thrown 108.1 innings this year, well more than he’s thrown since 2015 and fatigue must start impacting him. We’ll see if it’s in this series. That would seemingly be the biggest potential downside for Heaney as he’s 6-6 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.154 WHIP. He’s got a better FIP than LaBlanc, but not nearly as good of command.
As the series moves into Saturday, the pitching matchup is a battle of a beleaguered former ace against a youngster with upside as Felix Hernandez is on tap for the Mariners and Jaime Barria is slated for the Angels.
On Seattle’s side, King Felix isn’t exactly a king any longer based on his current season, but he’s coming off his best start of the season on a pure stuff level. Despite that, the White Sox still tagged him for four runs in five innings as he took another loss.
Once a workhorse, innings-eater and dominant ace, Hernandez is now the weakest link in the Seattle rotation and someone they hope to get five okay innings out of before going to the pen.
If he can do that on Saturday, he gives Seattle a chance to win. Still, his 8-8 record and 5.14 ERA along with his 1.369 WHIP and 4.64 FIP all point to Hernandez being—at best—a No.5 starter at this point in his career. It’s a sad fall from dominance for Hernandez, but with a 78 ERA+ and a 2.47 strikeout to walk ratio and high opponent batting average, he’s not a reliable starter any longer.
As for Jaime Barria, a plethora of arm injuries have opened a spot for the young right-hander. He’s shown some bright spots this year but hasn’t been all that great lately. The Angels have lost his last seven starts during which, he’s pitching to a 5.19 ERA. That includes giving up four runs in five innings against the White Sox of all teams in his last start.
Still, the 21-year old’s season numbers trump those of King Felix. Barria is just 5-7, but he has a 3.80 ERA in 71 innings. Of course, luck plays into those numbers, too. Hernandez has the better FIP as Barria is striking out 6.8 per nine innings and has a very low BABIP against him while giving up 12 dingers in 14 starts.
Finally, this series will wrap up with Marco Gonzales on the bump opposite the Angels’ Felix Pena.
Gonzales pitched into the sixth inning without allowing a hit in his last start and has now thrown four straight starts where he’s not only delivered a quality outing, but done one better with at least six innings and two runs or fewer.
The southpaw has had a very good year and is 11-5 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.145 WHIP. His 3.32 FIP puts him ahead of everyone in the Seattle rotation not named James Paxton and the 26-year old has done a great job at keeping the ball in the park, getting key strikeouts when he needs it and, perhaps most importantly, making the opposition earn their way on. He’s allowed only 23 walks all year.
As for Pena, the inexperienced righty is new to the rotation. Pena is another fill-in thanks to the glutton of injuries to the rotation arms for the Angels.
Pena’s only pitched 29.2 innings as a starter, but has notched 32 strikeouts in that time, pitching to a 2.73 ERA. He’s pitched well over that short sample size, but he’s just now getting to the point where the league will start adjusting.
Along with his time in the Show, Pena’s also spent 10 games in the Pacific Coast League and had a 3.51 ERA in that hitter friendly environment.
Live Betting
As is the case in any Angels game, Mike Trout is the star. The best player in baseball is stuck on a mediocre team with little support around him.
While Trout has already been worth 7.2 WAR, the rest of the team hasn’t tallied nearly enough WAR around him to make this a good team.
Trout has a .305/.457/.599 slash line. His 192 OPS+ makes him worth nearly as much as two average hitters. Unfortunately, even if you count him as two average hitters, the Angels have five on their roster with Andrelton Simmons, Justin Upton and Shohei Ohtani the other three. And Ohtani has now been cleared to throw so he’s only a part-time hitter.
Kole Calhoun has been much better since coming off the DL and can be an extra bat to set up Trout, but even so, Calhoun, Trout, Upton, Simmons and even with Ohtani in the lineup, the Angels have a barren bottom of the order.
Albert Pujols has a .287 OBP and isn’t a real offensive threat any longer while the rest of the infield—aside from Simmons—remains a major disappointment.
While Seattle doesn’t come close to having an offensive player that can match Trout, they do have three All-Star bats in Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger, and Nelson Cruz with a 124, 136, and 143 OPS+ respectively. Trout’s 192 is better, but the next highest Angel other than the part-time Ohtani is at 118.
Meanwhile, along with those three bats, the Mariners also have some good power coming from the corners with Ryon Healy having hit 20 homers and Kyle Seager adding 16 along with 24 doubles. In addition to them, Ben Gamel has a great OBP, Denard Span as quietly been a well above average hitter and while Dee Gordon’s OPS and OBP are poor, he’s a speedy spark plug on top the order when he does get on.
The Mariners have the deeper offense with a larger variety of threats and are much more likely to make something happen to score runs even if the ball isn’t flying out of the park.
MLB Pick
There is an 11-game difference between the Angels and the Mariners in the standings, but the actual difference between these two teams is miniscule. Essentially, Seattle’s been able to win the close game and the Angels have not.
Los Angeles has a +20 run differential but is under-.500 while the Mariners are 20 game over with a +1 differential. How does that happen? Basically, the Mariners win the close game and the Angels do not. Look for that to hold to true in this series.
While the Mariners haven’t been as good lately, look for them to steal two wins despite these two teams likely ending the series close to even in the runs scored department. Bank on the Seattle southpaws to give the Mariners enough length to get to a good bullpen while the Angels are likely to overcome some issues from Barria to beat King Felix on Saturday.
Either way, look for a good series between teams with similar rotations, bullpen ERAs nearly identical and offensive numbers much closer than one would expect.
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