The Seattle Mariners are the surprise team in the American League to this point in the season and will make the trip across country to take on the New York Yankees on Tuesday. The Mariners are still trying to prove they belong with the big boys and while their record would suggest they do, a big series win against the Yankees—starting with winning Game 1—would go a long way. While the pitching matchup on Tuesday won’t mirror a potential Wild Card showdown, it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that we’ll be witnessing a Wild Card game preview of sorts on Tuesday.
First pitch for the game between the Mariners and Yankees is scheduled for Tuesday, June 19, 2018, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium. The matchup will be shown on MLB Network.
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Odds Analysis
Yankees have a makeup games against Nationals on Monday while the Mariners will have a day off to rest, the Yankees will travel to Washington D.C. and then back to the Big Apple for Tuesday’s game.
When you’re dealing with two red hot teams, you must look for even the slightest advantage for either to help differentiate the teams. After all, the Yankees have the best record in baseball at 46-20 and have done 11-3 in June. The Mariners have the same number of wins as New York, though they’ve played five more games.
Seattle is 12-3 in June and 22-6 over their last 28 games. They’re streaking despite not having Robinson Cano, arguably their best player.
The Cano suspension is huge, but the Mariners have used it as a rallying cry rather than an excuse to falter. They’ve had everyone else step up their game without Cano and the cumulative result is an even better team.
The Mariners are a good hitting team. They don’t matchup with the Yankees who have already hit 112 home runs and rank third in runs scored and first in OPS at .794, but they’re still a better than average offense. They’re able to manufacture runs when they need and have enough power to go along with some good speed as well.
Going into Sunday—and since the beginning of June—the Mariners have outscored the Yankees by seven runs in only one more game. Over the season, the Yankees’ offense is better, but over the last couple weeks, the two offenses are rather close.
For Seattle, Mitch Haniger has officially become a superstar. He had a big first half last year, too, but got injured. He’s now showing that if he’s healthy he’s a big, middle-of-the-order bat. He’s got 16 home runs and 53 RBIs. He’s leading the team with a .876 OPS.
Meanwhile, Nelson Cruz is still mashing the ball despite the advanced age while Ryan Healy is also putting up solid OPS numbers.
While the big boppers are doing their thing, the Yankees have more than just power. Dee Gordon has 19 steals, Jean Segura has 14 go to with a .343 average and 138 OPS+. Then, of course, the newly acquired Denard Span has been great in his 16 games. He’s batting .320 with a .882 OPS, providing a nice spark and good replacement bat for Cano with Gordon returning to second from the outfield.
Probable Pitchers
Marco Gonzales is on tap to get the ball for the Mariners. The lefty has pitched very well so far, going 7-3 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.278 WHIP in 14 starts and 79 innings.
Going into the year, the rotation was an area of concern for the Mariners. King Felix has regressed, but with others like Gonzales stepping up and providing surprisingly consistent production, its helped keep the team in games and allowed the offense and bullpen to do the rest. The team is 10-4 in his 14 starts.
A former first round pick and top prospect for the Cardinals, it took leaving St. Louis for Gonzales to realize his potential. The southpaw’s really come into his own in Seattle and is 4-0 with a 1.41 ERA in his last six starts. His last start wasn’t as strong as the previous five, but he still limited the opponent to three runs while taking the no-decision.
Gonzales will get his first chance to pitch against the stacked Yankee lineup on Tuesday, but at least he’ll head into the game throwing the ball well in his most recent starts.
The Yankees haven’t announced the starter they’ll send to the mound opposite Gonzales, but Domingo German would be on schedule to make that start with Sonny Gray going on Monday.
German has already made seven starts and 12 appearances for the Yankees with mixed results. He’s 1-4 with a 5.23 ERA, but his FIP is a full run lower and his strikeout rate of 10.6 per nine innings, shows someone with dominant stuff that can overpower big league hitters. It’s just the consistency of the location that’s still an issue. German has been plagued by the home run ball a few times, too.
The rookie right-hander may finally be starting to find some consistency. He’s thrown back-to-back quality starts now though both just barely qualified with three runs allowed and six innings pitched in both. Of course, with a lineup like the Yankees, dominance isn’t need, just quality.
The two most recent starts did come against the Mets and Rays. The Mariners will be more of a challenge even with Cano still suspended.
He allowed four runs against Houston and six each against Texas and Oakland prior to the back-to-back quality outings. He, however, has never faced the Mariners.
Live Betting
Even with the lack of a day off before this game, the Yankees do still have a deep lineup that should help give German run support, even against Gonzales as well as he’s throwing.
Gary Sanchez is struggling, but Austin Romine has been hitting well behind the plate. Other than that, there’s really nothing to complain out on this roster. Greg Bird is showing flashes though his average is still low, he still provides some good power. He, however, may not even play given Gonzales is a lefty.
The Yankees’ offense is stacked with right-handed power. Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge are obvious, combining for 34 home runs, but Gleybar Torres and Miguel Andujar are mashing the ball from the right side, too.
Didi is a left-handed hitter and was struggling much of the season after being nearly impossible to get out in April, but he’s started to show signs of life, too, further deepening this lineup.
Obviously, it’s a tough matchup for both starters so it shouldn’t be a surprise if the bullpens play a significant role in the game.
That, of course, would seemingly favor the Yankees, but Seattle has some good options in the backend of the pen, too.
Aroldis Chapman has been amazing, but Edwin Diaz is having a good season, too, with 62 strikeouts in 38 innings and 1.84 FIP.
Setting up Diaz, Alex Colome is a former All-Star closer recently added while Roenis Elias has been good covering multiple innings in his first few games. Chasen Bradford and James Pazos also have good numbers.
The names are bigger for New York with Chad Green, David Robertson and Dellin Betances, but the production has only been a bit better overall.
MLB Pick
The Yankees are the better team overall. The offense is deeper and the bullpen is more likely to hold up over the course of the long season. Both teams are hampered a bit in the rotation and the Mariners may have the upper hand there, but the Yankees have the resources to close that hole come July.
For this game, look for a close battle. German making the start instead of Luis Severino or C.C. Sabathia, gives the Mariners a better shot at the win on the road, particularly with Gonzales throwing so well.
Look for Gonzales to continue pitching well on Tuesday. The Yankees’ bats are too good to shut down completely, but look for Gonzales to navigate the lineup well enough to give six quality innings before turning it over to a good backend of the bullpen. Without over exposing the middle relievers, Seattle should have the pitching advantage on Tuesday.
The Mariners are playing well right now and German is not exactly infallible. Look for Seattle to get to German and capture a lead by the sixth. The Yankees’ bullpen should be able to hold the score there, but look for the Mariners to narrowly beat the Yankees on Tuesday even if New York carries the rest of the series.
MLB Odds: Mariners 6, Yankees 4
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