The Seattle Mariners have fallen behind the Oakland Athletics in the Wild Card race and the Mariners are still a threat to both the A’s and the Houston Astros in the NL West. The Astros currently hold a 6.5-game edge on Seattle, but the Mariners will try and cut that down over the weekend as they kick off a four-game head-to-head series on Thursday night. Thursday’s game will be a fun one to watch with both teams sending their aces to the mound and James Paxton and Justin Verlander are slated to make the start.
First pitch of the game between the Mariners and Astros is scheduled for Thursday, August 9, 2018, at 8:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park. The matchup will be televised nationally on MLB Network.
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Odds Analysis
The Mariners have been sliding really since the Fourth of July. Since then, they’ve gone 11-17 and dropped from half a game back from Houston to 6.5 back and in third place behind the A’s.
Even with the fall, Seattle has still won 10 more games than their run differential says that they should. They’ve actually allowed more runs this season than they’ve scored. They’ve just played so well in close games that they’ve been able to overcome that. It seems that statistical anomaly was just too strong and they’ve begun regressing closer to their expected performance.
Houston, meanwhile, has its own struggles. They’ve still got the best run differential in baseball, but the gap is closing as the Astros battle a number of key injuries.
Offensively, Houston is one of the best teams in the sport, but they’re without three of the best players with Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and now George Springer all on the disabled list.
Derek Fisher is up again, but he’s struggled in The Show with a .173 average. Tony Kemp, Evan Gattis, Josh Reddick and Marwin Gonzalez are stepping up to fill the void, but without three All-Star caliber players it’s hard to maintain a top-tier offense. They do still have one All-Star in the lineup as Alex Bregman leads the team in WAR and OPS+ at 4.9 and 153 respectively.
Bregman is slashing .278/.383/.522 this season with a team leading 22 home runs and 36 doubles. He’s really come into his own and without so many players, he’s key to this team treading water until the others are back.
The Mariners are trying to tread water themselves, but they’ve been sinking in the standings. The offense is a piece of that.
Robinson Cano is coming back soon and could help spark the team, but for now, Nelson Cruz is on a bit of an island. Jean Segura and Mitch Haniger are both is slumping and while Dee Gordon is getting on base reasonably well, he’s never been a particularly high OBP hitter. His speed, as a result, doesn’t play up as much as it otherwise should.
Probable Pitchers
James Paxton is an elite level pitcher, but for much of the season, Justin Verlander looked to be the odds-on favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award, sporting a sub-2 ERA and posting ridiculous numbers.
The 35-year old right-hander and former MVP was pitching as well as he has in his career earlier this year and had a miniscule 1.05 ERA into late May.
While the righty did hit a bump in the road at the end of June and heading into the All-Star break, he’s bounced back well since the time off, throwing three consecutive strong starts, combining for 18.2 innings in those three starts while only allowing three runs on 18 hits and four walks. He struck out 32 in that time.
Verlander now sits with an 11-6 record and 2.19 ERA though the Astros are just 14-10 when he starts. They’ve been better at converting his starts to wins recently though, winning four of his last six outings.
The veteran righty hasn’t faced the Mariners this year as his starts haven’t aligned with the Astros and Mariners’ head-to-head battles. In his career, however, is 12-8 with a 3.01 ERA in 24 starts against the Mariners.
Paxton, on the other hand, has faced the Astros three times this season and has dominated Houston in those starts, going 3-0 with a 0.87 ERA in 20.2 innings of work. He’s allowed 15 hits and four walks in that time while striking out 21.
Overall this season, the 29-year old southpaw is 9-5 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.065 WHIP. He’s also thrown a no-hitter amongst his 22 starts, tossing zeros against the Blue Jays back in May.
After a couple rough outings in mid-July, Paxton has bounced back nicely in his last two starts, throwing 14 combined innings and allowing just three runs on 11 hits and one walk since the All-Star break. One of those post-All-Star break starts came against the Astros where he went seven scoreless frames on July 30 to lead the Mariners to a shutout win over Houston.
Live Betting
With strong starters toeing the rubber for both teams, we are likely to have a close game, putting a lot on the bullpens for each team to pitch meaningful innings.
The bullpen—and specifically the ninth inning—was the biggest question for the Astros going into the non-waiver trade deadline, but by the numbers, Houston still has a great bullpen with a 3.05 team ERA, the best in baseball. Seattle, by comparison, is pitching to a 3.94 ERA as a unit.
Despite the good ERA, there was concern about the Astros’ closer situation. Hector Rondon has been holding down the spot and throwing well with a 2.21 ERA and 12 saves since taking over from Ken Giles, but most thought they needed to improve there. So, in comes Roberto Osuna and a slew of off-the-field concerns.
The distraction Osuna brings could hinder the on-field performance of him—or the team in general—but purely on the mound, Osuna is a nice talent added to an already strong bullpen. He had a clean first inning off the suspension list on Monday.
Along with Rondon and Osuna, the Astros also have Collin McHugh with a 1.01 ERA in 53.1 innings, Brad Peacock with a 2.96 ERA in 48.2 innings, and Tony Sipp pitching to a 1.63 ERA from the left side.
The variety in the pen helps give A.J. Hinch plenty of options though one of McHugh and Peacock may be off the table for this series with Lance McCullers Jr. going on the DL and one of the two veteran arms needed in the rotation.
Moving on to the Mariners’ bullpen, they don’t have the same gaudy numbers as the Astros’ pen, but they did add much less controversial pieces at the deadline with Zach Duke and Adam Warren joining the ranks. The early returns haven’t been great, but they add depth along with earlier acquisitions of Alex Colome and Sam Tuivailala.
The depth in the Houston pen may be better right now, but the ninth inning in Seattle is lockdown. If they can get to the ninth with the lead, the game is over. Edwin Diaz leads baseball with 42 saves and has a 1.96 ERA and 0.800 WHIP as he’s allowed just 29 hits and 15 walks in 55 innings while striking out 91 batters.
MLB Pick
Paxton has dominated the Astros this season and Houston comes into this game with a depleted lineup. That’s not a good formula, but don’t look for the Astros to go scoreless again. Houston is a hard to team to keep down. The Astros will scratch across a couple runs against Paxton this time around.
With Verlander pitching for the Astros, Houston also has their ace on the hill and someone capable of shutting down a slumping Mariners’ team. The Seattle offense hasn’t been quite as strong recently. Look for Verlander to keep Seattle to just a couple runs in his first start against them this season.
Overall, this should be a low scoring game with the Astros—the better overall team—coming out on top. While the Roberto Osuna situation is still a bit of a concern, he looked good in his first outing and does provide a good late inning arm to help close out the win.
MLB Odds: Astros 3, Mariners 2
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