In the late game on Independence Day, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the St. Louis Cardinals in the desert in the finale of a three-game series against two NL contenders. This is a big series by both teams, already in the heat of divisional races. We have a prime pitching matchup in this contest, too, as two of the NL’s biggest surprises square off with Miles Mikolas and Patrick Corbin both scheduled to take the mound in the series finale.
First pitch for the game between the Cardinals and Diamondbacks is scheduled for Wednesday, July 4, 2018, at 10:10 p.m. ET at Chase Field. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
After winning seven of eight games, the Diamondbacks hit a wall against the Giants over the weekend, getting swept at home. They’ll be looking to bounce back in their series with the Cardinals.
Overall, this team is still 19-10 since the end of May and have been one of the best teams in the NL save for that month.
During that rough month, the offense was silent largely because of a cold start to the year by Paul Goldschmidt showing that as Goldschmidt goes, so goes Arizona.
Fortunately for the D-Backs, Goldschmidt is red hot right now, having just won Player of the Week. He’s got his OPS back to .900 and his slash line up to .265/.377/.523. He’s back to leading the team in homers with 18 and has 44 RBIs to tie him with David Peralta.
Aside from Goldy, Peralta and Daniel Descalso have been the most reliable hitters. Others, despite lackluster overall numbers, have been hitting well recently.
Goldschmidt has a 1.246 OPS in the team’s last 27 games with 11 of his homers and a .368 average. Ketel Marte doesn’t match up, but his .912 OPS is still impressive, as it his .344 OBP. Nick Ahmed, Jake Lamb and even Peralta are all hitting well above their season numbers.
On the other side of this matchup, Matt Carpenter, Jose Martinez and Marcell Ozuna are the hot hitters right now in St. Louis.
Carpenter has a .316/.417/.643 slash line in the last 30 days while hitting eight homers. Martinez is tied with him for homers in that time with Ozuna one behind with seven. Martinez has a 1.000 OPS while Ozuna is hitting .324.
Having those players step up, especially Ozuna, helps mitigate the damage from Tommy Pham going cold.
In the end, the Cardinals lack the big bopper in the order like Goldschmidt though they have a bit more depth in the order compared to Arizona. Overall, both teams rank in the middle of the pack in runs scored though Arizona has been a lot streakier with its offensive production than St. Louis and has been the better offense over the last month.
Probable Pitchers
In the offseason, Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish got most of the attention from teams looking for starting pitching help, but to this point, Miles Mikolas looks to be the best offseason acquisition, at least from a pitching perspective.
The right-hander takes the ball for the Cardinals in this series finale and although he has taken the loss in two of his last three decisions, he’s still pitching well.
With the highest WAR amongst pitchers and second highest overall on the team, Mikolas has gone 8-3 with a 2.61 ERA and 0.987 WHIP in his 16 starts. He’s pitched 103.1 innings, giving the Cards some much needed innings to help insulate a bullpen that has had its lumps.
Prior to his tenure in Japan, Mikolas was unable to establish himself in the states, but he clearly learned to pitch overseas and has done an excellent job maneuvering through opposing lineups.
Unlike most pitchers in today’s game, Mikolas is not a strikeout guy. He’s only averaging 6.3 per nine innings. Instead, he’s inducing weak contact and making the opposition work their way on. He’s tops in the NL with a 1.1 walk per nine innings rate. And, although, his strikeout rate isn’t great, he’s got a 5.54 strikeout to walk ratio. That, along with just eight homers allowed has allowed him to pitch to a 3.22 FIP. His production is more than just luck.
Over his last two starts, Mikolas has faced a couple good offenses in the Brewers and Braves and held them to a combined three runs in 13 innings. Five of his last six starts have been quality starts and while his 2.61 ERA is impressive enough, since his first two starts of the year, he’s pitched to an even more impressive 2.17 ERA in 14 games.
Mikolas is a good candidate for the NL All-Star team, but so his is counterpart in this game, Patrick Corbin.
The 28-year old southpaw was an All-Star back in 2013, but has battled injuries since then. He had a 5.15 ERA in 2016 and while he bounced back to a 4.03 ERA and 14 wins last year, nobody saw another massive leap forward coming here in 2018.
Despite that, Corbin enters play with a 3.14 ERA and 2.81 FIP. He’s pitched 17 games with 106 innings pitched. He’s just 6-3, however, and the Diamondbacks are only 9-8 in his starts, due largely to a 1-5 record in May when the D-Backs scored the fewest runs in the sport.
Corbin was, perhaps, the NL’s best starter through mid-May, posting a 2.12 ERA after his start on May 9. Since then, however, he’s had a few more bumps in the road. Nevertheless, he’s back to throwing exceptionally well after holding the Pirates scoreless over seven two starts ago and allowing just a single run on four hits over six frames against the Giants last time out.
Corbin has faced the Cards four times in his career with okay numbers, but has a good matchup for this showdown given St. Louis has scored the fewest runs against a lefty in baseball and has a combined .676 OPS against southpaws.
Live Betting
Overall, this matchup features two solid—but flawed—offenses against two of the league’s better starting pitchers over the first half of the year.
This looks to play out to a low scoring game which would make the bullpens even more important as runs will be coming at a premium.
Arizona’s bullpen has been the best in the game per ERA. They’ve pitched to a 2.53 mark while St. Louis has a 4.14 ERA as a unit.
For Torey Lovullo, the reliable options are plentiful, allowing the manager to put his arms in a position to succeed. Brad Boxberger has had a few issues in the ninth inning, but overall has a 3.68 ERA and 19 saves. Comparatively, the Cardinals de facto closer, Bud Norris, has a superior ERA and WHIP, but does have a couple blown saves over the last month.
For most of the year, Norris and Jordan Hicks were the only two arms Mike Matheny could rely on in his pen. They’ve been overworked as a result.
On the positive side, however, Greg Holland finally looks to be the Holland they thought they signed. He’s now pitched scoreless outings in his last six appearances with only two hits and no walks allowed while he’s struck out eight.
If Holland is back, that’s huge, but the Arizona pen is still deeper. After Boxberger, Archie Bradley—regardless of whether or not he’s gone to the bathroom—is one of the best set up men in the game. Plus, the D-backs have gotten great work from Yoshihisa Hirano, Andrew Chafin and T.J. McFarland in their respective roles. Silvino Brancho is filthy, too.
MLB Pick
Look for a well-pitched game by both teams with Mikolas and Corbin representing their respective teams. These are each team’s most consistent starter on the year so we should have a good idea of what to expect from each.
In the end, look for bullpen to be the difference in this game, giving the game to the home town Diamondbacks. After all, in terms of overall numbers, the pen is the area that’s led to Arizona’s four-game advantage over St. Louis in terms of overall record.
With a tight game going into the latter innings, the D-Backs have the more reliable bullpen. Look for the Cardinals to give up a key run late and fall in a close game.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks 4, Cardinals 3
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