The St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves wrap up a three-game series on Thursday night. This series, and its finale, feature two contending teams struggling a bit in mid-May, but very much in the race in their respective divisions. The venue and recent trends should give the Braves an edge as the Cardinals are under-.500 on the road and have really struggled to find consistency of late, but they still boast a better overall record the Braves.
First pitch for the game between the Cardinals and Braves is scheduled for Thursday, May 16, 2019, at 7:20 p.m. ET at SunTrust Park. The matchup will be shown on MLB Network.
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Odds Analysis
The Cardinals have stumbled into this series with the Braves having lost three in a row and nine of their last 11, dropping down from first in the NL Central to fourth during that stretch.
The pitching has been a big part of the recent struggles, but the offense has also struggled to find consistency. The team scored 17 against the Pirates on Thursday, but have also failed to score more than a single run in six of their last 11 games.
Despite that, the Cardinals still have the second best batting average in the NL, they’ve just had issues translating those hits into runs.
After a hot start, Marcell Ozuna has slowed. He’s still a nice power threat, but he’s got a .319 OBP to go with his 11 dingers and 34 RBIs. Matt Carpenter, meanwhile, is hitting just .201 and has only four homers and nine RBIs after such a massive season last year.
Jose Martinez, Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong and Dexter Fowler have all put up solid numbers in the early going, with DeJong’s .972 OPS particularly impressive, but team’s overall production—particularly of late—has not exactly live up to the sum of its parts.
Since the start of May, St. Louis has a .677 team OPS as the power has dried up. The team has just nine May homers, ranking ahead of only the Marlins and Phillies in the NL.
While contact and average seem to be the Cardinals’ strengths at the moment, but Braves are a tick better in team batting average, ranking first in the NL.
Like the Cardinals, Atlanta’s offense has slumped a bit lately though their team OPS of .688 this month is a bit better than St. Louis.
Overall, the Braves have 10 of their 12 active players sporting an OPS+ over 100 and while the Cardinals have a couple hitters with double digit homers, but Braves’ leader is Ronald Acuna Jr. with eight, but five different batters have at least six.
Acuna is off to a strong start in his sophomore campaign. Meanwhile, Josh Donaldson and Nick Markakis have both been excellent off-season signs.
Probable Pitchers
There’s an interesting pitching matchup slated for this series finale with each team’s rotational elder statesman slated to take the ball.
For the Cardinals, that’s 37-year old right-hander Adam Wainwright while it’s a 28-year old for the Braves in Julio Teheran.
Wainwright comes into the game 3-3 with a 4.15 ERA over eight starts this season and is coming off an encouraging seven-inning performance his last time out.
The righty is no longer the Cy Young contender he once was, but he still processes all the grit that made him great, just with diminished stuff. Still, he’s seemed to find a way to stay competitive as his curveball has played up this year and its usage has also seen a jump.
His 4.15 ERA so far this year would top the marks he’s produced each of the last four seasons. He seems to finally be fully healthy and back to being a serviceable mid-rotation arm.
Over his last four starts, Wainwright has allowed two runs or fewer while going at least six innings in three of those four starts.
On the other side of this matchup, Teheran is just 2-4 with a 4.26 ERA. The right-hander has pitched well since some troublesome early starts. In fact, he has a 2.88 ERA over his last four outings. He’s been even better the last two times out, allowing just one run in 12 innings. Despite that, he’s winless in his last five starts.
Overall, Teheran has a 101 ERA+ and has made nine starts, throwing 50.2 innings. He’s peripherals are in line with his overall numbers, making him a good mid-rotation arm, much like Wainwright.
In his career, Teheran has faced the Cardinals on six different occasions, having some solid success with a career 3.18 ERA versus the Cards.
Live Betting
In the bullpen, the Cardinals have the advantage and with two starters with interesting resumes, but some questions along with two similar offenses, both struggling, this game could come down to the final innings and the pen.
That’s not good news for the Braves. Atlanta thought they had enough young arms to mix and match their way at the end of games, but Arodys Vizcaino and A.J. Minter were supposed to be part of the answer. Vizcaino is on the IL and Minter is now in the minors after allowing 12 runs in 11 innings, struggling with both walks and home runs in the ninth inning.
Having a bad bullpen can be demoralizing and the Braves have a bad pen right now. Luke Jackson is the de facto closer and while he’s thrown well this season with a 2.25 ERA in 20 innings, he’s unproven in such high leverage innings. Josh Tomlin and Dan Winkler have also found themselves thrust into key situations. Jerry Blevins and Jonny Venters are veteran options in the pen, but they’ve had their issues, too, in very limited chances.
Really, the latter innings are a giant question mark right now for Atlanta.
The end of the game is a bit more defined for the Cardinals. Overall, team bullpen ERA has the Cardinals with a slight edge on Atlanta, but when you consider the key late inning arms, the gap is much bigger.
Jordan Hicks has taken a step forward in the ninth. His 104 mile per hour fastball was somehow still getting hit last year, but it’s played up even more this year with better movement and a better arsenal to play off of it.
Hicks has a 1.88 ERA and 20 strikeouts in his 14.1 innings. He’s got nine saves. Meanwhile, John Gant and John Brebbia ha vebeen great setting up Hicks. It’s a younger, less-experienced trio, but it’s been effective, particularly while Dominic Leone and Andrew Miller have struggled to find their footing.
MLB Pick
Both Wainwright and Teheran seem to be pitching near the top of their game at the moment and while neither are shutdown starters, both have been team aces at some point in their careers. Teheran is closer to that in age, but it’s hard to underestimate Wainwright’s grit.
Look for a strong outing from both starters, particularly given both teams have seen their offense slow over the last couple of weeks.
Still, take the Braves’ deep lineup to manufacture some runs against Wainwright and grab the narrow, but early, lead.
The bullpen, however, is the issue for the Braves. Look for the Cardinals to score a couple on the pen as the Braves ultimately lose this one late.
Take the Cardinals on the road at BookMaker.eu to get back on track with a win in this series finale.
MLB Odds: Cardinals 6, Braves 5
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