Not to miss a chance to showcase one of the game’s biggest rivalries, the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs will kick off the second half of the season for MLB with a primetime matchup on Thursday night. The only Thursday game on the schedule, the All-Star break is cut a bit short for these two clubs as the Cubs send Kyle Hendricks to the hill against the Cardinals who have yet to announce their starter for this game.
First pitch for the game between the Cubs and Cardinals is scheduled for Thursday, July 19, 2018, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. The matchup will be televised nationally on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Cubs have owned the opposition at home this year, going 28-15 for a winning percentage of .651, more than a hundred points higher than the winning percentage on the road. On the other side of the matchup, the Cardinals are a couple games over-.500 on the road, but have generally played the same home and away.
Head-to-head, however, St. Louis was won five of eight against the Cubs and split a brief two-game series in their only trip to Wrigley. Despite that, the Cubs have the momentum in this season series, taking two of three from the Cardinals back in June.
While the Cards have the edge in head-to-head record, it’s the Cubs that hold the statistical advantage offensively, on the mound and on defense.
At the dish, Chicago has scored more runs than any other NL team with 476 and have a .771 team OPS compared to a .714 mark for the Cardinals.
On the mound, the Cardinals starting staff has been more consistent than the Cubs’ starters, but the Chicago bullpen has been way better than the St. Louis relief corp with a 3.09 ERA compared to 4.48 for the Cards.
That then brings us to the defense. St. Louis’s defense—particularly on the infield—has been an issue for years. The team needs Jose Martinez in the lineup, but he struggles to pick it at first while Matt Carpenter should be at first given his limited range at third. Up the middle Paul DeJong isn’t good enough either. The Cubs, on the other hand, have Javier Baez, Addison Russell and Albert Almora to pick it up the middle with Kyle Schwarber in left really the only defensive issue.
We’ll see if the change of manager for the Cardinals has an impact. Under Mike Shildt, they won on Sunday, but we’ll see how the team reacts to the firing of Mike Matheny after a few days away.
Probable Pitchers
It’ll be Kyle Hendricks getting the start fresh out of the break for the Cubs.
The 28-year old right-hand has been a reliable arm in the Chicago rotation since getting a chance in 2014 and is sporting a .595 career winning percentage and 3.10 career ERA.
The righty’s numbers in 2018 haven’t been quite as good. He’s 6-8 with a 3.92 ERA. His FIP is also the highest of his career at 4.57 as he’s seen the rate of homers allowed continue to climb while his walk rate has held steady and his strikeouts have declined.
Hendricks is not a strikeout pitcher, but his 6.8 K:9 ratio is the lowest since his rookie season.
Even with some of lesser numbers from years past, Hendricks still has a 107 ERA+ and has been an above average starter for Joe Maddon. The biggest knock on him, however, has been his inability to go deep in a game. Fortunately, the Cubs have a good—and rested thanks to the break—bullpen behind him.
Hendricks will also be pitching at home where he’s 3-5 with a 3.18 ERA. He’s been better at Wrigley and that should benefit Chicago on Thursday night.
While Hendricks isn’t likely to dominate the Cardinals’ lineup, he is likely to keep the Cubs in the game. He’s pitched well. He consistently allows three runs or less, though the Cubs are just 7-12 in his starts. The team, however, did win his only start against the Cardinals this year.
Who the Cardinals will turn to in this game is still up in the air. All-Star Miles Mikolas won’t throw in the All-Star game after pitching Sunday and isn’t expected to make Thursday’s start either as he would be on short rest. Carlos Martinez, on the other hand, didn’t get the nod for the All-Star team, and would have plenty of rest for a Thursday start.
Martinez is the most likely choice for the start and had a good first half, going 6-5 with a 3.08 ERA despite an elevated 1.379 WHIP. He’s walked 4.7 per nine innings, well above his career norm of 3.4, but has done well to minimize damage. He’s had issues finding the strike zone, but when he’s in the zone, he doesn’t get hit hard.
The right-hander has made 16 starts and thrown 90.2 innings, but has allowed only four home runs and opponents are hitting just .231 against him with a .661 OPS. Those numbers appear sustainable, too, as his BABIP is in line with his career average.
Speaking of his career, it’s been bumpy in 25 games—15 starts—against the Cubs as he’s 4-4 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.505 WHIP. He’s pitched 96.1 innings against Chicago. He’s only thrown more against Milwaukee.
This season, the 26-year old has just ones start against the Cubs, going five innings and allowing three runs in a game the Cards would eventually lose.
Live Betting
While Martinez is an elite level pitcher, several Cubs hitters have swung well against him with Anthony Rizzo having hit three homers while posting a .354 OBP in 46 plate appearances. Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Ian Happ and Addison Russell have all also taken him deep with Contreras going 6-for-15 against him.
The Chicago lineup is stacked and there’s plenty of talent on the bench to allow late-game matchups with the St. Louis bullpen, which of course has issues of its own.
The Cubs have seven different players with a OPS+ of at least 110 and ten with an OPS+ of at least 95 meaning Chicago is getting at least league average offensive production from everyone it sends to the dish—save the pitchers.
As for the Cardinals’ hitters, Macell Ozuna is 4-for-13 with a homer and five RBIs against Hendricks while Matt Carpenter has taken him deep twice.
In general, the Cardinal bats aren’t as prolific as the Cubs’. Dexter Fowler is still hitting only .176 and Kolton Wong is the primary second baseman despite a .213 average.
Elsewhere on the diamond, Martinez is slugging, but the tradeoff is on defense while Matt Carpenter has quietly been the star. The return of Paul DeJong off the DL should help a bit, but this is still a case of a team trying to put square pegs in round holes. The lineup is full of No.2 and No.6 hitters, but lacks the thump in the middle even with Ozuna hitting better. On the year, Ozuna and Pham have both been below league average hitters based on OPS+.
MLB Pick
Carlos Martinez is the better pitcher compared to Kyle Hendricks, but the Cubs are the better team and they’ll have a well-rested bullpen and lineup ready to get back to work.
Chicago just overtook first place in the division prior to the break and will be keen to keep the good times rolling. The break could halt that, but the Cubs played better baseball in the second half last year and could do the same in 2018.
In this game, look for Chicago to get to Martinez as they’ve been able to do in the past. They’ll put up a couple early runs and ride that to a victory as Hendricks throws five solid innings and turns it over to the pen to knock out the final four innings.
The Cubs have the bullpen to shut the door against the Cardinals while St. Louis’s pen has been a much bigger question mark. With Hendricks starting this game, the Cubs have one of their most reliable arms and given their edge in every other faced of the game, look for Chicago to grab the win.
MLB Odds: Cubs 5, Cardinals 3
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