Coming out of the All-Star Break, the Chicago Cubs are hosting the St. Louis Cardinals in a usual five-game series including a doubleheader on Saturday. The first game of the doubleheader is a make-up of an April 16 postponement with the night game of the day-night twin bill the original scheduled contest. In that night cap, the Cardinals have John Gant coming up to make the start while Tyler Chatwood will get the nod looking for his first win against the Cards in his third start against them this season.
First pitch of the game between the second game between the Cardinals and Cubs is scheduled for Saturday, July 21, 2018, at 7:15 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. The matchup will be televised regionally on FOX.
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Odds Analysis
The Cubs went into the break playing great baseball and taking over the top spot in the NL Central while the Cardinals went into the break in a state of fluke having just fired Mike Matheny.
It’ll be important how the Cardinals react to the managerial change. It can often spark the team in the short term though the shock undoubtedly wore off over the break.
Right now, there’s no doubt the Cubs are playing the better baseball. Of course, they also have the better offense.
Chicago’s offense has been the best—at least in terms of run production—in the NL and it’s no surprise why. The team is stacked with talent.
Javier Baez and Kyle Schwarber were both part of the Home Run Derby so we’ll see how that impacts both of them. They’re two powerful hitters with a 131 and 129 OPS+ respectively. The team had three offensive All-Star even without Kris Bryant or Anthony Rizzo having their best halves. Braynt, of course, was still very good, Rizzo was average.
Top to bottom there isn’t a bad hitter on the team or in the order. Even Jason Heyward is having a good offensive season while Addison Russell has picked up his game lately.
The Cardinals have more holes to worry about. Dexter Fowler is still a mystery with his .176 average and the Cards are still giving him at-bats desperate for him to break out of it.
Jose Martinez and Matt Carpenter are the two best hitters on the team this year and they’re both men without real positions. Neither are good defenders leaving the pitchers responsibility to helping minimize that deficiency with the strikeout.
Paul DeJong and Yadier Molina are now healthy which helps, but Marcell Ozuna has been a bust and so has Tommy Pham. Without them hitting well, the Cardinals are a team full of No.6 hitters along with Carpenter who does his best work in the leadoff spot.
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Chatwood, the Cubs’ starter, saw his first half ERA balloon to 5.04 after allowing 17 runs in 15.2 innings over his final three starts of the half.
The 28-year old right-hander is the Major League leader in walks with 73 even though he only made 17 starts and threw 84 innings. That’s a terrifyingly high walk rate of 7.8 per nine innings. The fact he’s been able to keep the ball in the park and induce generally weak contact—on the ground—when the ball is in the zone has allowed him to maneuver his way out of damage enough to maintain his job—at least to this point.
Still, he’s got a 1.774 WHIP and 5.20 FIP. With so many base runners and so many pitches, even when he is able to dance his way out of trouble, Chatwood does not pitch deep into games, averaging fewer than five innings a start. That means the bullpen plays a huge role in his starts.
This year against the Cardinals, Chatwood is 0-1 in two starts—the Cubs lost both games—allowing six runs in 8.2 innings pitched. He walked 12 in those two games.
Remarkably, even with all the walks, the Cubs are 9-8 in Chatwood’s 17 starts as he’s getting good run support and has a very good bullpen behind him.
The bullpen is one thing that puts Chatwood ahead of the Cardinals’ starter, John Gant.
Gant’s a fill-in starter for the Cardinals who have a need for him to throw in this doubleheader.
The 25-year old right-hander has jumped between the bullpen, rotation and minors this year. In 12 games—six starts—with the big club, he’s 3-3 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.122 WHIP in 49 innings.
Those are rather solid numbers though the better ones have come as a reliever. He’s pitched to a 1.72 ERA in 15.2 innings out of the pen and a 4.32 ERA in 33.1 innings as a starter. He’s also just 1-3 starting.
Gant’s last appearance came in four relief innings on Sunday where he didn’t allow a hit against a good Cincinnati offense while he walked two and struck out four. He got the win in that game though the Cards are only 4-8 when he pitches.
Gant’s last start came nine days before his last appearance when he went six innings and allowed two runs to the Giants. In the minors, Gant was 5-1 with a 1.65 ERA for Triple-A Memphis of the hitter friendly Pacifica Coast League.
Live Betting
Depth is crucial for the second game of a twin bill. The Cubs certainly have the edge the depth department both on the bench and in the bullpen.
Behind the plate, the Cubs have All-Star Willson Contreras as their everyday catcher, but Victor Caratini is the back up. Regardless of who plays for the Cubs in the second game, it’s a good option—at least offensively. The Cardinals, however, have a significant drop off from their own All-Star in Yadier Molina to Francisco Pena, a 28-year old journeyman backstop with a .198 average.
The rest of the bench is a bit more comparable between the two teams with Harrison Bader, Yairo Munoz Greg Garcia, and Jedd Gyorko solid offensive threats. Of course, the defense takes a hit, but the Cardinals aren’t a great defensive squad—particularly in the infield—regardless.
For the Cubs, there’s a lot of moving parts which is a specialty for Joe Maddon. Ben Zobrist, Tommy La Stella, and Ian Happ offer Maddon a lot of flexibility to rest the appropriate players in the doubleheader.
Meanwhile, in the bullpen, the Cubs are looking to improve the depth, particularly from the left-side. Still, guys like Brandon Morrow, Steve Cishek, Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards Jr., and the lefty Justin Wilson are all great late-inning arms. The 30-year old Anthony Bass has even been throwing very well in his limited innings.
With Brian Duensing’s struggles of late, the Cubs could use an added lefty to help Wilson in the pen, but most of their arms can get both lefties and righties out.
For the Cardinals, Bud Norris and Jordan Hicks have been good, but they both cannot be expected to play both ends of a doubleheader. With games on Thursday and Friday, one or both may not be available at all on Saturday, leaving veteran question marks like Brett Cecil, Tyler Lyons, Luke Gregerson, and Greg Holland to cover meaningful innings.
MLB Pick
Chatwood is prone to walks and the Cardinals have some good offensive pieces to take advantage of the free passes and drive in some runs.
Look for the Cardinals to get to Chatwood, but there’s a reason Gant is a fill-in starter for the Cardinals and while he’s got a good ERA and FIP, he’s doing that with a low home run rate and very low BABIP. He’s also prone to walks, averaging nearly one every other inning. The Cubs, meanwhile, have scored the most runs in the NL.
Overall, this will be a higher scoring affair, at least early, meaning the bullpens will play a significant role. That should give the win to the Cubs as they’ve got the depth to still trot out solid relievers after using some earlier in the day.
Take the Cubs to win Game 2 of the doubleheader on the road.
MLB Odds: Cubs 8, Cardinals 6
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