The St. Louis Cardinals sit atop the NL Central standings when they journey into enemy territory to take on the Chicago Cubs in the first game of a four-game weekend series on Thursday night. This is an important game, and series, for both teams as they battle for the divisional top spot. Can the Cubs defend their home field against the Cardinals and cut into their rival’s lead or will the Cardinals gain ground with a key win in this series opener?
First pitch for the game between the Cardinals and Cubs is scheduled for Thursday, September 19, 2019, at 7:15 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. The matchup will be shown on FOX.
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Odds Analysis
The Cardinals have ridden a strong second half into the top spot in the NL Central standings as they’ve gone 39-22 since the All-Star break.
Despite that strong record, St. Louis has stumbled a hit of late, losing four of their last six going into the week and four of their last seven on the road.
Of course, the Cardinals remain under-.500 on the road overall even with their strong play the last couple of months. That bodes well for the Cubs who have a .676 winning percentage at Wrigley Field.
In fact, the Cubs took care of business against the Cardinals the last time these two teams met in Chicago, sweeping the Cards in a three-game set. St. Louis did win two of three the last time these two teams met overall, but Chicago still holds the advantage in the season series, going 7-5 in head-to-head games. The Cubs have outscored the Cardinals, head-to-head, by 12 total runs.
Probable Pitchers
Two of the National League’s more underrated pitchers are slated to take the ball for their respective teams in this one with Jack Flaherty and Kyle Hendricks the likely pitching matchup.
At 29, Hendricks is the junior most member of a big-name rotation for the Cubs. The right-hander has also been the most effective start. He leads the team in innings and ERA amongst other categories.
Coming into the game, Hendricks is 11-9 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.117 WHIP in his 165.2 innings spread over his 28 starts. He’s been even better than that in the second half of the season with a 2.94 ERA and 1.038 WHIP.
According to ERA+, Hendricks has been 38-percent better than the average pitcher and boasts the second highest rWAR on the Cubs, behind only Javier Baez.
As good as Hendricks has been overall, he’s been even better at home, boasting extreme home/road splits. The righty is 6-2 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.824 WHIP in his 13 home games this season and that’s over a rather sizeable 87.1 inning sample size.
On top of the stellar home numbers, Hendricks also dominated the Cardinals the last time he faced them, allowing no runs in seven innings in a game in St. Louis. He gave up one run in seven the last time he faced them at Wrigley.
Given Hendricks’ dominant performances against St. Louis and great numbers at home, it’ll be an uphill battle for the Cardinals, but they are countering with a starter who has thrown the ball exceptionally well of late.
At 23-years old, Flaherty has already established himself as the ace of the Cardinals. He’s 10-8 on the year with a 3.05 ERA and 1.033 WHIP. He’s thrown 174.1 innings and, like Hendricks, has the best rWAR of any starter on his team.
The Cardinals’ right-hander is also boasting a 3.64 FIP and has notched 206 strikeouts after striking out 10 Brewers’ hitters in his last start.
Flaherty did allow three runs in that start and took the loss. Despite that, he did notch his fifth straight quality start. Even with those three runs, Flaherty has a miniscule 1.05 ERA in 12 starts since the All-Star break. Those three runs he gave up in his last start was the most he’s allowed since July 2.
The Cardinals’ hurler dominated the Cubs the last time he faced them, allowing just one hit and two walks over seven scoreless innings. Of course, that start came in St. Louis. He struggled the last time he faced the Cubs in Chicago.
Live Betting
The starting pitching should keep this game close as both starters have been throwing the ball very well of late with Hendricks dominating at home as well.
Even with both starters likely to deal, neither are expected to go the distance, leaving it up to the bullpens to determine the outcome in what figures to be a close game late.
The Cardinals have the better bullpen ERA at 3.75, but the Cubs aren’t that far off and have gotten some great work out of their pen lately including Kyle Ryan and Steve Cishek pitching well in late game situations.
St. Louis has Carlos Martinez closing out games. He’s been huge in that role for this team, but recently it’s been the likes of Giovanny Gallegos, Dominic Leone, Junior Fernandez, and Ryan Helsley pitching well for the Red Birds.
Both bullpens find themselves in a similar situation. Interestingly, both offenses have produced nearly identical numbers in the second half, too.
The Cubs have the better offensive numbers overall and have scored more so far in September despite some key injuries.
Chicago will be without Javier Baez in this one and likely Anthony Rizzo as well. Despite that, the Cubs have seen Nico Hoerner come up and swing the bat exceptionally well with 11 RBI in his first seven games. Nicholas Castellanos continues to rake for the Cubs, too, with a 1.070 OPS since his acquisition. Even without Rizzo and Baez, the team has Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, and Willson Contreras amongst other prolific bats.
For the Cardinals, Paul Goldschmidt is back to his normal self in the second half while Kolten Wong and Tommy Edman have both been hitting well.
Paul DeJong continues to provide power. Marcell Ozuna is a quality bat, too. The depth, however, isn’t quite as great for the Cardinals compared to the Cubs offense and that could be the difference.
MLB Pick
Look for a great pitching duel through the first seven innings as both starters have been throwing the ball quiet well. Hendricks is lights out at home while Flaherty has been exceptional in the second half.
Even with Flaherty throwing as well as he has been, look for the Cubs to scratch across a couple runs against him, before adding on a couple more against the bullpen to eek out the win.
St. Louis has been playing well overall but has slowed the last week or so and haven’t been nearly as strong of a team on the road as at home this season. The Cubs are the reverse of that.
In the end, the Cubs’ offense gets enough against the Cardinals’ bullpen to get the narrow win in what should be an excellent, nail-bitter of a contest.
MLB Odds: Cubs 5, Cardinals 4
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