The St. Louis Cardinals are traveling to Hollywood to take on a struggling Los Angeles Dodgers’ squad. The Red Birds will play the Boys in Blue in a best of three, with the middle game on Tuesday broadcast nationally. This game could serve as another announcement by the Cardinals that they’re for real as they continue to surge. Daniel Poncedeleon gets the start for the Cards in this important game as Hyun-Jin Ryu makes the start for the Dodgers.
First pitch for the game between the Cardinals and Dodgers is scheduled for Tuesday, August 21, 2018, at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Dodgers made some of the biggest splashes at the trade deadline—and before—with Manny Machado and Brian Dozier added to the lineup. Despite that, Los Angeles didn’t do anything to bulk up the bullpen—save for a minor deal to bring in John Axford. That has seemingly curse the team as both the Diamondbacks and Rockies have past them in the NL West standings.
The Dodgers lost Kenley Jansen recently and have seemingly fallen apart without him to lock things down late in the game.
With Jansen on the shelf, Scott Alexander and Caleb Ferguson are the only two Dodger arms with saves this season. The newly acquired Axford is out, too, and while Ross Stripling and Kenta Maeda were pushed to the bullpen, only Maeda is still on the roster. Stripling has joined Jansen and Axford on the DL.
Maeda pitched well in relief in last year’s postseason, but he’s transitioning back to the role for the stretch run. We’ve yet to fully see what difference he can make.
On the Cardinals side of things, St. Louis has made a lot of adjustments, too. They sold off a few pieces at the deadline, but mostly remade a couple areas of the team that needed a different personality.
Included in the team midseason facelift was the dropping of dead-weight out of the bullpen along with improving the defense, getting back to the Cardinal Way after years of poor defense and bullpen inadequacies.
Brett Cecil is still massively underperforming, but Mike Shildt is using him in much lower-leverage situations than Mike Matheny did. Meanwhile, the new manager has arms like Dakota Hudson, Chasen Shreve and Austin Gomber replacing Tyler Lyongs and Greg Holland who each had an ERA north of seven and a half when they were let go.
Defensively, the Cardinals now have Matt Carpenter instead of Jose Martinez at first and while Martinez is getting time in the outfield, so is Harrison Bader who at least partially makes up for the ineptitude Martinez brings on the defensive side of the ball.
Probable Pitchers
Daniel Poncedeleon goes back into the rotation, replacing Luke Weaver who shifts to the bullpen.
Poncedeleon made a spot start several weeks back and was phenomenal in that start, going seven no-hit innings against the Reds before being pulled from the game.
The 26-year old rookie has made a solid first impression in his first six appearances. He’s gone 17.2 innings and allowed four runs. Eliminating this seven, no-hit innings in his start, that’s still 10.2 innings and four runs, not a bad ratio.
While the overall numbers are good, there are still some definite detractors for the righty. For instance, in his 17.2 innings, he’s walked nine and struck out only 10. That’s not a very good strikeout to walk ratio. He cannot sustain that level of success with that many free passes and although the Cardinals’ defense is improved, he’s still a bit too reliant on that defense.
Of course, we’re still dealing with a ridiculously small Major League sample size. In the Triple-A Memphis, Poncedeleon went 9-3 with a 2.15 ERA in 92 innings. In the PCL, he had a very good 10.1 strikeout per nine inning ratio, showing he can sit down the opposition, but his put-out pitches just haven’t quite played in the Majors, yet.
The higher K rate in the minors is a huge plus, but the walk rate was high in Triple-A, too, and that could pose a problem, particularly against a stacked offense like the one in Los Angeles.
On the other side of this pitching matchup, Hyun-Jin Ryu gets the start for the Dodgers. The southpaw had six scoreless innings against the Giants in his return from the DL. He also comes into this game having pitched well in three career games against the Cardinals.
Ryu’s only made seven starts this year due to injury. In those seven games, however, he’s 3-0 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.813 WHIP. He’s already amassed 1.5 rWAR in 35.2 innings pitched.
He’s pitched extremely well, when he’s been healthy this year, but seven starts doesn’t give us a huge sampling. Over his career, the numbers aren’t quite as good, but he’s still proven himself to be a good starter when healthy. He proved he was healthy in his last start.
The southpaw has also proven himself against the Cardinals. He’s made three starts—and pitched four games—against them. In that time, he’s got a 1.50 ERA in 24 innings.
Ryu is certainly the more experienced of the two arms, and the more proven. He should put up a good outing while Poncedeleon has been good in his time in the Big Leagues but has a lot more questions. Health is it for Ryu.
Live Betting
The Dodgers have scored more runs than the Cardinals this year. They’ve got more home runs and though St. Louis has the superior batting average, the Dodgers have a slightly better OBP in addition to the edge in the slugging department.
While the season long numbers favor the Dodgers, the Cardinals have scored the most runs in the NL since the All-Star break. While the Dodgers added Machado and Dozier to beef up the offense, the Cards went with their younger players like Bader in shipping off Tommy Pham to Tampa Bay.
That’s worked, apparently, as the Cardinals have taken off. They’re hitting .271 as a team in the second half and have a .796 OPS. Matt Carpenter continues to swing a scorching hot bat. He’s a MVP candidate with his 159 OPS+ and 33 bombs. Since the break, Carpenter has hit 14 of his long balls, driven in 25, scored 26 and posted a 1.106 OPS.
While Carpenter is the headliner for the Cardinals, he’s not a solo act. Paul DeJong, Marcell Ozuna, Harrison Bader, and Yadier Molina, amongst others, have put up staggering second half numbers.
For the Dodgers, Machado and Dozier both made immediate impacts for L.A., but have faded a bit since. Matt Kemp has also faded fast. The All-Star hasn’t been the same player in the second half while Chris Taylor’s slumping, too.
L.A. still has enough players to make up the difference with the bats, but the offense hasn’t been as otherworldly as expected post trade deadline and with the relief pitching faltering, that’s not a good combination.
MLB Pick
The Cardinals are the hotter team and the Dodgers have a better record on the road than at home. Those two facts point this in the direction of St. Louis though the Cards are at a disadvantage in the pitching matchup.
Look for Poncedeleon to allow the Dodgers a few runs while getting into the sixth. He may even leave the game with L.A. in the lead, but the Dodgers are finding ways to lose these days and a weak bullpen certainly isn’t doing the team any favors.
Count on the Los Angeles bullpen to falter until Kenley Jansen returns and even then, the options in leading up to him are sparse.
Look for the Dodgers to have a slight lead—or at least a tie game—when the bullpens take over, but even with the Cardinals bullpen woes this year, look for them to pull this one out thanks to the momentum they’ve got on their side.
MLB Odds: Cardinals 5, Dodgers 4
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