The St. Louis Cardinals and Minnesota Twins kick off a brief two-game interleague series on Tuesday when the Cardinals head to the Twin Cities to take on the Twinkies. Both the Twins and Cardinals were second wildcard competitors in their respective leagues last year with Minnesota nabbing the playoff spot and the Cardinals falling just shy. This year, they both find themselves competing their respective divisions whether by quality of play or lack of quality amongst the rest of the division. Either way, these teams matchup with plenty on the line—even for a May series—and will go with Jake Flaherty and Jose Berrios on the bump.
First pitch for the game between the Cardinals at Twins is scheduled for Tuesday, May 15, 2018, at 8:10 p.m. ET at Target Field. The matchup will be shown on Fox Sports 1.
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Odds Analysis
The Twins dropped a 2-1 contest to the Angels on Sunday to fall back to two games under-.500 for the seasons.
It’s been a choppy start to the season—at best—for Minnesota. The Twins have looked terrible at times and great at others. They’ve already had an eight-game losing streak amidst a 1-11 stretch. They, however, are now 8-3 over their last 11 as they head into this game playing much more consistent baseball.
On the other side, the Cardinals just lost back-to-back games to the San Diego Padres of all teams, ultimately splitting a four-game series. The series split comes after they were swept in St. Louis against this same Twins team they face-off against on Tuesday.
In that brief two-game series in St. Louis, the Cardinals were outscored 13-1 as the St. Louis bats couldn’t find their ways against Fernando Romero or Jake Odorizzi. They’ll have a different hurler to try and beat in this one. The Cardinals, meanwhile, also send a fresh arm to the bump.
Probable Pitchers
Jack Flaherty is coming back from Triple-A Memphis to make this start, getting the nod to take this turn in the rotation following the injury to Carlos Martinez.
Flaherty has already pitched a couple games in the Majors this year, going 10 innings over two starts while allowing four runs and striking out 11.
There’s no question that the 22-year old right-hander is ready for a regular spot in the rotation. The issue has been space in the rotation and service time considerations. He, however, is needed in The Show now.
Over eight big league games in his career, Flaherty’s biggest weakness has been command. He’s walked 15 batters in 31.1 innings and allowed five dingers. The homers are down in his two starts this year, but the walk rate is still elevated.
Of course, there’s no doubt that Flaherty has the stuff. The main question is how well—and quickly—can he adjust to facing big league hitters and using the slightly different big-league ball. After all, in the minors this season, he’s pitching to a 4-1 record and 2.27 ERA in his five starts. He’s also posted a 5.86 strikeout to walk ratio and 0.916 WHIP.
The youngster is a career 3.25 ERA starter throughout five minor league seasons and most recently struck out 13 his last time to the hill. In his most recent Major League start, he gave up three runs in five frames to the Pirates.
While the Twins have their own youngster starting this game, Jose Berrios does offer a bit more experience and a better big-league track record.
Like Flaherty, Berrios was a highly ranked prospect, but has since graduated after making 14 starts in 2016 and 25 last season.
His initial big-league stint was anything but a success with an 8.02 ERA in 2016, but they provided helpful lessons that the now-23-year-old right-hander used to improve to the tune of a 14-8 record and 3.89 ERA last season.
His start to 2018 has been a bit more uneven. He’s shown the dominant stuff in a few outings, but overall is 3-4 with a 4.50 ERA. His shutout proves he’s still the same dynamic hurler, but he’s struggled with his release point of late and has been unable to locate his curveball. Without the breaking pitch, he’s become too predictable for hitters and has an 8.84 ERA over his last four starts after allowing five runs in 5.1 innings against the Angels last time out.
Live Betting
Offensively, both the Twins and the Cardinals fall in the bottom third in baseball in total runs scored with St. Louis only barely beating out Minnesota by three runs—albeit in two less games.
The Cardinals still need Dexter Fowler, Marcell Ozuna and Matt Carpenter to heat up. Those are three of the team’s most established bats, but even with them struggling, the team’s scored enough to boast a 22-16 record.
Tommy Pham has basically carried this team and while the loss of Yadier Molina certainly hurts the offense, opponents cannot rely on Fowler, Ozuna and Carpenter remaining ice cold. Those three are all proven enough in the Majors to count on the back of the baseball card.
For the Twins, the struggles of the newly healthy Byron Buxton are in line with his previous early season draughts and while Logan Morrison’s disappointing .175 average is certainly a shock, the same can be said for his breakout campaign last year.
In the bullpen, however, the difference in these teams is much bigger. The Cardinals still need to get Greg Holland going to push everyone else back and deepen the pen. There are sizable holes in the middle innings, but the unit has produced a solid 3.61 ERA compared to the Twins’ 4.93 mark.
For the Twins, there are solid bullpen arms like Ryan Pressly and Addison Reed, but the unit as a while hasn’t produced the numbers.
In St. Louis, it’s better, largely because of Bud Norris and Jordan Hicks stepping up to close down the final few frames. It’ll be up to the Twins to beat up on the guys in the middle as Flaherty doesn’t figure to go more than five or six frames.
MLB Pick
Neither team is lighting it up on offense, but both are hanging around the top of the division though that’s a much bigger accomplishment for St. Louis.
The Cardinals have the more complete team on paper—despite the Twins sweeping them in St. Louis last week—and while both have had their issues in the bullpen, the St. Louis pen is a bit deeper than Minnesota’s.
With Berrios unable to locate the curveball, look for the Cardinals’ bats to eliminate that pitch and thus put together a couple good innings against him. Flaherty isn’t a proven ace, but he’ll do enough to hold back the Twins and give the game over to the bullpen with the lead. From there, count on the Cardinals carrying this one to a victory, even if the late innings can get dicey for St. Louis.
MLB Odds: Cardinals 7, Twins 4
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