This Easter Sunday meeting in New York marks the finale of a season opening series between two likely NL Wild Card contenders: the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets. Both teams missed out on postseason play a season ago, but come into the new season having added some offensive firepower, but still have significant questions to address around the pitching staff. Sunday’s pitching matchup features Luke Weaver and Steven Matz. Weaver was the better arm last year, but Matz—if healthy—still has a ton of potential.
First pitch for the game between the Cardinals and Mets is scheduled for Sunday, April 1, 2018, at 1:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
You can bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Odds Analysis
The Cardinals have been one of the better teams this spring, posting a 17-12 record in Grapefruit League play, including going 3-1 against the Mets. As for New York, they had the worst record in Grapefruit League play, going 10-18. While spring stats are hardly indicative of what to expect in the regular season, it could have some early bearing.
While St. Louis has looked good this spring, they aren’t without their warts, mostly in the bullpen. Luke Gregerson is starting the year on the disabled list. He’s slated to be the team’s closer which, in itself, is indicative of the bullpen woes.
Without Gregerson, Dominic Leone and Tyler Lyons are likely to split closing duties while Brett Cecil and Bud Norris serve as key set up men.
The Mets’ bullpen is a bit deeper in the backend. While the Cards don’t have any true closers on the active roster, the Mets have two in Jeurys Familia and A.J. Ramos. On top of that, the addition of Anthony Swarzak gives New York three strong arms to back up a talented, if injury prone, rotation. It’s when the opposition can knock the starter out after five or fewer that the Mets’ pen becomes a bit light.
Probable Pitchers
After more experienced arms take to the mound in the first two games of this series, the pitching matchup on Saturday turns to Luke Weaver and Steven Matz.
Weaver looked good in 13 games for the Cardinals in 2017. He started 10 games and ended the year with a 7-2 record, 3.88 ERA and 1.260 WHIP in 60.1 big league innings. That was enough to earn a spot in the starting rotation, particularly after posting a 10-2 record and 2.55 ERA in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.
Weaver’s performance in 2017 was a stark improvement over his nine-game trial in 2016. He made the needed adjustments, reducing his home run and hit rates while maintaining a very high strikeout rate of 10.7 per nine innings.
This spring, Weaver solidified his rotation spot throwing 13.1 innings and allowing just two runs—one earned—while giving up only five hits and four walks. He also struck out 15 in route to two wins. A lot rides on Weaver’s shoulders in the Cardinals’ rotation. He’s got plenty of upside and so far has done well to deliver on it.
Pitching for the Mets is their own high-upside youngster in Matz.
Like Weaver, Matz has yet to pitch a full season at the Major League level. Of course, in his case, it’s more a result of health than anything else. Though even when on the field last year, things weren’t going his way.
After a 22 start 2016 where he went 9-8 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.209 WHIP, he looked poised for a break out 2017, but instead limped the through season, ending up with just 13 starts and a 6.08 ERA and 5.05 FIP. His walk rate didn’t jump, but he was still missing his pitches. He was being hit hard in the zone with his hits per nine jumping by nearly two and a half while his home run rate skyrocketed, too. He gave up 12 dingers in 66.2 innings.
Unfortunately, he hasn’t looked much better this spring. He is healthy so that’s a plus, but he’s 0-4 with a 6.30 ERA. He’s been a bit better with the long ball, but has given up 21 hits and nine walks.
Live Betting
Offensively, both the Cardinals and Mets took significant steps forward in the offseason to build off overall mediocre seasons. They were separated by just 26 runs scored in 2017, but the difference between the two going into the offseason was much bigger.
The Mets sold at the deadline and went into the offseason with few answers around the field. They had Yoenis Cespedes, Asdrubal Cabrera and Amed Rosario, but little else since Michael Conforto is starting the year on the DL.
With holes in centerfield, all around the infield and behind the plate, GM Sandy Alderson had his work cut out for him.
With the depressed free agent market, Anderson brought back Jay Bruce and add on Todd Frazier and Adrian Gonzalez to help fill some holes.
There are, of course, questions around Gonzalez and whether he’s got anything left, but Bruce, Frazier and Cespedes at least gives the Mets some pop in the middle of the order.
For the Cardinals, the team was littered with top-of-the-order hitters and six-hole bats, but sorely needed the thumper in the middle to tie the order together. A trade for Marcell Ozuna brought them just that.
Ozuna slugged .548 last year, belting 37 homers and 124 RBIs with a .312 average. He’s carried that into the spring with four spring bombs, 13 ribbies and a 1.077 Spring OPS in 64 plate appearances. With him in the middle, it takes pressure off Matt Carpenter to be himself rather than a power hitter.
Now the team has several strong OBP hitters at the top with Carpenter, Dexter Fowler and Tommy Pham. They follow that with Ozuna and a collection of other strong sticks including Yadier Molina, Paul DeJong and Jedd Gyorko.
MLB Pick
Weaver is coming off a strong season and a strong spring while Matz is the opposite. The Cardinals are coming off an excellent record in spring while the Mets struggled mightily.
Look for those trends to continue and carry into Saturday. Weaver should be able to navigate the Mets’ lineup. Cespedes and Bruce are threats, but most of the lineup can be pitched to with success.
As for the Cardinals, their lineup is deeper top to bottom. They may have a bit less thump, but the batters at the bottom of the order will put up better at-bats overall.
The Cardinals bullpen could allow the Mets to stay in the game, but look for the St. Louis bats to give the pen enough of a lead to capture the win.
MLB Odds: Cardinals 6, Mets 4
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today!
