The St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves are set for the NLDS beginning on Wednesday when the Braves host the Cardinals. Atlanta is the favorite in the series and has homefield advantage, ending the regular season with six more wins, but the Cardinals surged to the finish line. Can they keep the good times rolling with an upset for the Braves or will Atlanta advance to their first Championship Series appearance since 2001?
The National League Division Series between the Cardinals and Braves starts on Thursday, October 3, 2019 at 5:02 p.m. ET at SunTrust Park. The series will be broadcast live on TBS.
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Odds Analysis
The Cardinals battled it out to the final game of the season to lockdown the NL Central and with just 91 wins, they’ve got the fewest victories of any division winner, coming in six-shy of the Braves.
St. Louis does come limping into the playoffs a bit. They beat the Cubs to close out the regular season and clinch the division, but prior to that dropped four in a row, two to the Diamondbacks and two to Chicago. The first of those four losses was a 19-inning affair. That likely attributed to the other losses and will be well in the rearview mirror come Thursday.
Overall, the Cardinals have been a second half team with a .635 winning percentage since the break and have a distinct advantage at home with a .617 winning percentage. The Braves, however, have homefield advantage and have an identical mark at home while the Cardinals are just barely over .500 on the road. They’ll need to steal one of the first two in Atlanta to have a chance.
Speaking of Atlanta, the Braves also are limping a bit into the postseason having been swept by the Mets to close out the season and going just 4-8 in their last 12 games.
Probable Pitchers
The starting rotation of these two teams are rather balanced and even. Both teams have a stud young pitcher along with some solid veterans and a surprising youngster as the possible fourth starter.
For the Cardinals, the young ace is Jack Flaherty. Perhaps the single biggest reason for the Cardinals’ second half turnaround, Flaherty went from being a good young pitcher to an absolute ace.
The soon-to-be 24-year old right-hander just completed his second full season and amassed a 6.0 WAR. He started the year a bit inconsistent, much like most young arms, but ended up giving the team a 2.75 ERA and 0.968 WHIP in 196.1 innings. His WHIP leads the National League. He only pitched to a 11-8 record, but despite that is likely to be a top-3 finisher in the NL Cy Young Award balloting.
In the second half of the season, Flaherty was almost unhittable. He pitched to sub-1 ERAs in both August and September and since the All-Star break is 7-2 with a 0.91 ERA in 99.1 innings of work. That’s not an inconsequential sample size. He clearly turned a corner.
While he’s the Cardinal’s best starter, he’s lined up to start Game 2 and then come back in Game 5, if needed, after starting on the final day of the regular season as the Cardinals were looking to lockdown the NL Central top spot.
With Flaherty pushed back, Adam Wainwright could get the Game 1 start. The 38-year old managed to stay healthy all season and produced his best season in five years.
Wainwright is coming off a five-run start against the Diamondbacks his last time out, not great, but did allow just a single run in 27 innings through the previous four starts.
The veteran hurler, of course, is a proven postseason pitcher with a 3.03 postseason ERA in 24 games. Of course, he’s not the same pitcher he was in his prime, but he is still one to buckle down and find a way to win. That’s not exactly a sabermetric trait, but nevertheless, it’s one that applies to Waino.
Even as a diminished version of himself, he still had a solid season with a 14-10 record and 4.19 ERA. His WHIP was a bit inflated, but he managed to work around the base runners and keep his team in the game.
The Cardinals’ No.3 starter is very similar as Miles Mikolas likely gets the nod. Mikolas is another solid veteran. He’s spent most of his career in Japan but came back last year and finished sixth in Cy Young voting with a 18-4 record and 2.83 ERA. The 31-year old wasn’t the same this year, finishing with a league leading 14 losses, but still had a respectable 4.16 ERA and 1.223 WHIP in 184 innings.
The righty threw a quality start, going seven innings and allowing three against the Braves back in May. He’s also gone six straight games allowing three runs or less and is coming off a very good appearances against the Cubs, going 7.2 innings and allowing just one run.
If a fourth starter is needed, that will likely be Dakota Hudson. The 24-year old right-hander pitched out of the bullpen as a rookie last year, but earned a rotation spot this spring and produced with a 16-7 record and 3.35 ERA. His FIP, however, is a bit high at 4.93, indicating he’s been a bit lucky. He does have a high walk rate with a league leading 86 free passes but has worked around them.
To counter those four, the Braves have an interesting set of arms themselves. Their answer to Flaherty is Mike Soroka, a 21-year old righty who has been their best starter.
Coming into the year, Soroka had five starts in the Majors. He started 29 games this year and threw 174.2 innings, so fatigue is a concern. Even so, the Braves are counting on him after he went 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.111 WHIP.
Like Flaherty, Soroka may not be starting Game 1 despite having the best season. The Braves are likely to opt for veterans with more experience and could push Soroka back to Game 3 so he would start on the road where he’s been amazing, going 7-1 with a 1.55 ERA in 98.2 innings of work.
If the Braves do that, however, Soroka will only be able to make one start in the series against a team he went 1-0 against with a 0.69 ERA in two starts this season.
Provided Soroka doesn’t go in Game 1, the nod probably goes to Dallas Keuchel who has the most postseason experience on the team.
The 31-year old southpaw made just 19 starts for the Braves after signing late in the year, but put up solid numbers, going 8-8 with a 3.75 ERA despite missing the preseason and the start of the year.
The lefty has postseason experience with Houston, including winning a World Series, has a 3.31 postseason ERA and 4-2 record in 10 games.
That’s all great, but Keuchel does have some concerns. He hasn’t looked great in his last few starts.
The other veteran likely to get a start—or two—in this series is Mike Foltynewicz. He was the ace of last year’s NL East champions with a 2.85 ERA but hasn’t been as good this year. He even was demoted to the minors for a bit but came back much stronger.
His 4.54 ERA and 4.97 FIP are a bit deceiving. He’s thrown much better down the stretch. Since his return to the rotation in August he is 6-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.075 WHIP in 10 games.
Should the Braves use a fourth starter, the options are Julio Teheran and Max Fried. Teheran had a nice season but has really slumped lately. Fried, meanwhile, has shown signs of fatigue after a surprising 17-6 season.
All in all, these two teams are rather balanced in the rotation, leaving the bullpen and offense to be the difference makers.
Bullpen Breakdown
Statistically, the Cardinals have the better bullpen with a 3.82 ERA to the Braves’ 4.18. After losing their flame throwing closer, Jordan Hicks, midseason, Carlos Martinez has been excellent filling in while Giovanny Gallegos has emerged as an elite set up option, making the Luke Voit deal with the Yankees look a bit less lopsided.
St. Louis added Andrew Miller to the pen in the offseason to try and provide a lockdown option midgame, but he hasn’t looked anything like the guy that basically carried the Indians to the World Series a few years ago. Despite that, he’s still a serviceable arm alongside John Brebbia, John Gant and others, though they’ve all shown some weaknesses in September. While the Cardinals have played well, the bullpen has had some issues.
St. Louis has the better bullpen on paper, but the Braves’ unit seems to be coming together at the right time. The team added three guns at the deadline. Shane Greene was supposed to be the closer. He was almost unhittable for the Tigers but struggled after the deal. Mark Melancon finally settled in as closer doing an admirable job. Greene is now back on track as a solid set up option along with Chris Martin, Sean Newcomb, and Luke Jackson.
Given how both units have thrown down the stretch, the Braves may have an edge here despite the overall bullpen ERAs for the two squads.
Offensive Comparison
The Cardinals go into this NLDS mostly healthy except for Kolten Wong who is trying to come back from a hamstring injury. Atlanta is without some bench options in Johan Camargo, Charlie Culberson, and Ender Inciarte. They’re also unsure about the status of Josh Donaldson who has a hip contusion.
On the Cardinals’ side, Wong has had a nice season for St. Louis with a 106 OPS+ along with strong defense up the middle. If he’s out, Tommy Edman slides into this spot and he’s hit well in 92 games with a .304 average and .850 OPS. Donaldson would be a bigger loss for the Braves.
Assuming health, the Braves have the advantage on offense. While Austin Riley and Dansby Swanson have cooled considerably after a hot start, the trio of Donaldson, Freddie Freeman, and Ronald Acuna Jr. gives the Braves the upper-hand, particularly when adding in Ozzie Albies, Nick Markakis, and the veteran leadership of Brain McCann.
Acuna leads the Braves in homers with 41 and adds 37 steals and a .883 OPS to the mix. He’s a huge threat atop the order and then Donaldson and Freeman add 37 and 38 homers, respectively, in the heart of the order. Those three alone should provide challenges to the Cardinals’ pitchers, but beyond them, Ozzie Albies had 24 homers and a .852 OPS and Nick Markakis offers a solid .385 OBP.
The Braves also have a deep bench. They picked up Adeiny Hechavarria and Billy Hamilton midseason. Hechavarria is a defensive-first shortstop but has hit well in 70 plate appearances for the Braves. Hamilton can help the outfield defense late in games while also serving as a pinch runner, providing extra pressure on the base paths alongside Acuna.
Back to St. Louis, the Cardinals do have a Paul Goldschmidt who has hit much better in the second half after a slow start. He’s got a .886 OPS since the break and has a .954 OPS in September. Marcell Ozuna is back healthy and serves as good protection in the middle along with Paul DeJong at shortstop.
Yadier Molina is aging, but still a future Hall of Famer and nice piece behind the dish and at the plate. And while Matt Carpenter’s season is a bust compared to last year, the third-baseman has really picked up his game over the last month.
MLB Pick
Neither team came streaking into the playoffs, but the Cardinals were playing a bit better baseball down the stretch, but with several days off, that hardly matters.
The Braves have a slight edge in this series beyond just homefield advantage. Atlanta’s offense is a bit more defined and the bullpen has come together while the Cardinal’s pen has had some issues in the season’s final month.
Look for some great pitching performances by some of the best young arms in the league with Flaherty and Soroka dominating in their respective starts. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like we’ll get to see them go head-to-head.
In the end, look for the starters to match up well, giving us competitive games throughout the series. This could be the best division series matchup this year.
Take the Cardinals to stretch this series to five games, but the Braves to win at home to advance to the NLCS for the first time in nearly two decades.
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