Opening Day is finally upon us and we will see how some of these teams stack up following their offseason moves. One of the more interesting divisions to watch this year will be the NL Central which may be the most balanced in baseball from top-to-bottom.
On Thursday, who of those teams in the NL Central will face off at Miller Park with the Milwaukee Brewers hosting the St. Louis Cardinals in a four-game set. The Brewers took the division on the last day of the season in 2018 and are going to try and repeat while the Cardinals are determined to get back to October baseball after missing out on the playoffs the last few seasons.
The journey to October begins with this series which could be a good early gauge for both teams as each appear to be contenders to take the division coming out of Spring Training.
The first game of the four game series between the Cardinals and Brewers is scheduled for Thursday, March 28, 2019 at the Miller Park, with first pitch at 2:10 p.m. ET.
You can bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Odds Analysis
The Brewers get to host the Cardinals for this four game series and are the reigning NL Central champions, but the Cardinals have better odds to take the division in 2019, making it an interesting series to kick off the season for both teams.
Milwaukee also comes into this game with a weakened bullpen after injuries have Corey Knebel and Jeremy Jeffress opening the year on the injury list.
Without them, Josh Hader and Jacob Barnes become the key late inning arms. Hader was Craig Counsell’s secret weapon last year and was used throughout the game in big spots. If he’s relegated to the end innings, that handcuff’s Counsell a bit. Barnes could be used in the closer role. He did get two saves last year, but his 3.33 ERA was a bit of a mirage given his struggles to keep his walks down.
Alex Claudio and Alex Wilson are new additions to the pen that help give a bit more depth. Junior Guerra and Chase Anderson are also in the pen now with the rotation filled by younger arms. Still, pen is supposed to be the team strength, but until Knebel and Jeffress are back, the edge is gone.
That’s particularly true as the Cardinals beefed up their pen this year with the addition of Andrew Miller.
Miller is the Cardinals’ answer to Hader and will be used to stop rallies and end innings in big spots. The Cardinals will use Jordan Hicks, primarily, in the closer’s role.
The bullpen didn’t put up great numbers last year, but took a major step forward under Mike Shildt and now has Miller and Alex Reyes as options with electric stuff.
Probable Pitchers
The St. Louis Cardinals, as a whole, have a better—or at least more proven—starting rotation than the Brewers.
Milwaukee used openers and leaned heavily on its bullpen to get all the way to the NLCS last season, but rather than adding to the rotation in free agency or trade this offseason, the Brewers lost Wade Miley and Gio Gonzalez. They’ll be counting on some of their young prospects to become key guys this year.
The Cardinals will also turn to some young guns, but do have a bit more of a veteran presence.
In this series, both teams will throw a surprise story from the 2018 campaign as their opening day starter with Miles Mikolas getting the honor for the Cardinals and Jhoulys Chacin getting the nod for the Brew Crew.
Mikolas is in his second season back in the states and learned to pitch while in Asia. He went 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.071 WHIP last year while finishing sixth in NL Cy Young Award voting.
The veteran right-hander earned an All-Star game nod and was surprisingly consistent throughout the year, keeping his team in the game even when he didn’t have his best stuff. The Brewers are highly unlikely to run away with the first game of this series. Milwaukee had more success against Mikolas than some teams as his ERA was 4.01 against them in four starts, but the Cardinals’ hurler was still 3-0 on those games.
As for Chacin, he’s coming off a 15-8 season with a 3.50 ERa and 1.163 WHIP. He didn’t rack up the strikeouts and doesn’t possess elite command. As a result, the peripherals don’t love him. He’ll need to be able to prove he can continue to get soft contact and outs as he has been inconsistent over his career.
Chacin, however, was good last year and got his share of wins, but Mikolas was better and more consistent. He’s the better bet to hand the ball over to the pen with the win in Game 1.
As for the rest of the matchups, the Cardinals have Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson and Michael Wacha slated to round out the series. The Brewers will go young with Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, and Corbin Burnes.
Flaherty gets the start in Game 2 for St. Louis off a good rookie season with a 3.34 ERA and 1.106 WHIP. Despite those numbers, he was just 8-9 as he didn’t get great run support. He has a better offense behind him now.
Against the Brewers, Flaherty has pitched some of his best games with 12 innings and 22 strikeouts.
Hudson and Wacha are both having excellent springs with the former earning the rotation spot despite pitching exclusively out of the pen in his time in St. Louis last year. He’s allowed just three runs, six walks, and 15 hits in 21.2 innings. Wacha has a 1.93 ERA in his 14 innings and went 8-2 with a 3.20 ERA last year.
The one red flag for both Hudson and Wacha is command. Hudson walked well over a batter every other inning in relief last year while Wacha out pitched his peripherals in 2018 largely because of his ability to work around those walks.
Each of the Brewers’ starters for the last three games of this series has very limited big league experience. Peralta got his first taste of the show last year in 16 games, 14 of them starts. In that time, he had 96 strikeouts to 78.1 innings, but did walk too many batters. His walks have been much better this spring.
As for Woodruff and Burnes, the two combined for just four regular season starts last year, all by Woodruff.
Woodruff had a 3.61 ERA and 1.181 WHIP in 42.1 major league innings last year. Burnes had a 7-0 record and 2.61 ERA in 38 innings over 30 games out of the pen.
Both have looked good this spring and earned their rotation stops over last year’s opening day starter in Chase Anderson who begins the year in the pen.
Live Betting
Last year, the Cardinals ended their season having scored five more runs than the Brewers. Neither team possessed an elite offense, but both ended up in the top-half of baseball in runs scored.
Milwaukee got there with a better average, more home runs and a higher OPS, but more strikeouts. The Cardinals were less streaky, but also had a bit less thump. Of course, that was before they added Paul Goldschmidt to the mix while the Brewers merely brought back Mike Moustakas and added Yasmani Grandal.
The Brewers’ lineup is a bit deeper with Grandal, but Moustakas at second base provides some defensive concerns, especially here early in the season with turning double plays. He got a chance to iron some of that out in spring training, but things change under the lights.
Overall, it’s a deep lineup for the Brewers who have Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich at the top. Cain finished last year with a .308 average and .395 OBP along with 30 steals as a great leadoff option. Yelich is the reigning NL MVP with a .326/.402/.598 slash line after a career high 36 home runs and 110 RBIs.
After that, there are Jesus Aguilar and Travis Shaw who both hit at least 32 bombs. Ryan Braun, Moustakas, Eric Thames, and Grandal are all power threats, too. This is a difficult lineup to navigate though there is some swing and miss.
On the other side, the Cardinals will slot Goldschmidt in the top part of the lineup, allowing Matt Carpenter to lead off in his most comfortable spot in the order with some protection after his 36-home run season.
Dexter Fowler is the X-Factor in this lineup. He was bad last year and hasn’t looked good this spring, but figures to get the starts early in the year ahead of Jose Martinez and Tyler O’Neill who will be on the bench.
Other than Fowler and, to a lesser extent Kolten Wong, the Cardinals have a deep lineup. Yadier Molina still proved he could mash with 20 bombs last year. Marcell Ozuna hit 23 in a down year. He struggled early and turned things around. He could be in for a bit season with some pressure off him thanks to Goldschmidt. Ozuna had a monster season in his last in Miami when he had a big bat in Giancarlo Stanton taking the attention in the order. Goldy could be a similar situation.
MLB Pick
Look for a series split in this one. The Cardinals have the stronger rotation, on paper, though the Brewers’ young arms do come with quite a bit of optimism. The bullpen is typically the area that Milaukee would have its advantage, but with some key guys on the injury list, that group is full of quality young arms and lacking experience.
The Brewers are playing this series at home which will give them a bit of a boost. They also have a strong offense with plenty of pop. Look for a timely homer or two to help them capture a couple wins. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are an improved team from last year and have closed the gap that made the Brew Crew the division champions while keeping St. Louis out of October.
The first part of the season will be tough for Milwaukee with their bullpen injuries, particularly considering how strong their schedule is to start the year. They should stagger through the first weekend with a split against the Cardinals.
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today!
