Not exactly a premier matchup of division leaders, but the Tampa Bay Rays and Kansas City Royals open a series on Monday with a game broadcast on ESPN. The self-proclaimed worldwide leader in sports often gets criticized for featuring just a couple teams on all broadcasts. This matchup is a clear example to refute that claim and while it features two under-.500 teams, it should still be a good matchup and a nice early chance for large market teams to see some potential deadline trade pieces on the national stage.
First pitch for the game between the Rays and Royals is scheduled for Monday, May 14, 2018, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Rays started the season 1-8 and were 4-13 on April 17. Since that time, Tampa Bay has gone 11-6 in 17 games, playing better defense, hitting much better and getting more quality pitching out of the rotation and bullpen.
On the offensive side of things, the team needed people to step up after trading away all the big bats in the offseason. Looking to have a more speed, contact driven offense, the Rays struggled to find their offensive identity early, but now they’re starting to come together.
Daniel Robertson has been great. He’s sporting a .289/.433/.470 slash line as he’s move around the diamond. Mallex Smith has produced a .326 average and .407 OBP with eight steals while Denard Span is leading the team with his approach alongside fellow old-man Wilson Ramos.
Span’s 24 RBIs leads the team and his .364 OBP is sending the message of how important it is to get on base. Ramos has a .313/.364/.485 slash line behind the plate.
In Kansas City, there are a few more black holes in the lineup.
The Royals did score 10 in an inning against the Orioles, but that’s an outlier and not indicative of this team’s offensive prowess. Alex Gordon has been better after a down year and Salvador Perez is a proven hitter behind the plate. Those two accompany Jorge Soler who is finally breaking out and Mike Moustakas in the lineup. Whie Merrifield is still a good OBP option with some speed, but the bottom of the order is barren.
Probable Pitchers
The starting rotation in St. Petersburg behind Chris Archer, Blake Snell and Jake Faria has been up in the air all season. Injuries have eaten into the staff which has opened a spot for Ryan Yarbrough after he began the year in the bullpen.
Neither team has announced its starter for Monday, but Yarbrough figures to get the start for the Rays while Erik Skoglund is in line for Kansas City.
Yarbrough is a 26-year old rookie. He’s made two starts with mediocre results. His last start came against Atlanta when he allowed five runs in five innings while throwing 79 pitches. The most he’s thrown in any outing is 88 so he’ll have a short leash provided he does get the start.
The southpaw was a starter throughout his minor league career and was effective in that role with a 3.22 ERA in four minor league seasons. He was 13-6 with a 3.43 ERA at Triple-A Durham last year.
Provided this is the pitching matchup, it’ll be a battle of rookie southpaws as Skoglund also throws from the left side.
Skoglund did make seven appearances in 2017, allowing 20 runs in 18 innings. He’s made six starts in 2018 and has been better, but still not great.
He’s 1-2 with a 6.34 ERA and 1.316 WHIP in 32.2 innings of work. He’s lasting just over five innings a start and has allowed five homers already through he’s done well cutting down on his walks from where they were a year ago.
While the overall numbers aren’t great, the lefty has thrown two quality starts in his last three games, giving up one run in seven frames against the White Sox and three runs in 6.1 innings against the Orioles. Tampa Bay offers a similarly lackluster offense to those two non-contenders.
Live Betting
Back when the Royals made their run to back-to-back World Series, Kansas City’s chief strength was its bullpen. Despite an okay rotation, the Royals could win regularly because once the bullpen was in the game, the game was won.
That’s not the case any more for the Royals. Kansas City’s rotation probably isn’t much worse, but the pen surely is.
Ranked dead last in baseball, K.C. has an ERA of 6.18 out of the pen as Ned Yost has nothing to rely on outside of Kevin Herrera who has been good in the closer’s role when the rare chance to close out a win comes up.
Traditionally able to pluck quality arms out of obscurity, that trick hasn’t worked for Kansas City this season.
Tampa Bay’s been a bit more successful out of the pen, though the Rays are still in the bottom half of the sport with a 4.35 bullpen ERA.
Kansas City can be confident to get the win with a lead in the ninth thanks to Herrera, but Alex Colome hasn’t been as good. He’s sporting a 5.17 ERA and 1.723 WHIP. Matt Andriese and Jose Alvarado have been the more reliable arms while Chaz Roe has had his moments.
As for feel good stories, Jonny Venters hasn’t allowed a run yet in his limited action. The three-time Tommy John recipient is back in the big leagues for the first time since 2012 and has looked great so far.
MLB Pick
This is a battle of fill-in starters for sub-.500 clubs. It’s not exactly a Yankees-Red Sox or Cubs-Cardinals showdown, but these two teams do appear evenly matched.
Tampa Bay has been the better team this year and been mediocre on the road which is more than can be said about the Royals at home.
Don’t count on a lot of offense for either club. A 10-run inning on Tuesday aside, neither team has hit with much authority. Instead, look for the pitcher that’s best able to locate go hand the ball over to its respective bullpen with the lead and hope for the best.
The Rays are a bit of a deeper squad. Look for Tampa Bay to come away with the victory.
MLB Odds: Rays 5, Royals 3
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