Despite finishing second to the Red Sox in 2017, most pundits have the New York Yankees winning the AL East in 2018. In fact, the Baby Bombers as they’ve been called are amongst the favorites—alongside Houston—to represent the AL in the World Series. Meanwhile, their opponent in Monday’s series opener are the likely cellar dwellers in the same division. Can the Tampa Bay Rays hobble together enough quality arms to get them through a game against a prolific offense like the Yankees? And, can they plate enough runs against the team’s weakest arm in Jordan Montgomery before the vaunted bullpen takes over?
First pitch for the game between the Rays and Yankees is scheduled for Monday, April 2, 2018, at 1:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Yankees won 12 of 19 meetings against the Rays in 2017 and are poised to take the first of 19 in 2018 as well.
New York has already gotten some impressive moonshots from new slugger Giancarlo Stanton. The new bash brothers are a dynamic pair. Stanton and Aaron Judge combining for 100 bombs in 2018 seems like a more than reasonable number after the two combined for well over that last year.
Them in the same lineup is staggering, but then adding in a solid veteran atop the order in Brett Gardner, the game’s best offensive catcher in Gary Sanchez and a collection of professional hitters in Didi Gregorius, Neil Walker and Brandon Drury, it’s hard to image a better collection of hitters on any team.
New York outshines Tampa Bay at nearly every position on the field. Even first baseman Tyler Austin—playing in place of the injured Greg Bird—is at least a push compared to the Rays’ C.J. Cron who is looking to benefit from a change of scenery after never fully blossoming in Anaheim.
While the Yankees are loaded with power and on-base top-to-bottom in the order, the Rays are a weaker—or at least different—offense than the one that managed just 694 runs scored in 2017. Tampa Bay scored the second fewest runs in the AL last year. In the offseason, they lost well over 100 homers in Lance Morrison, Evan Longoria, Corey Dickerson and Steven Souza Jr. That’s a lot of thump to replace.
In place of the power, the Rays will be a more speed oriented team, but even with Kevin Kiermaier, Carlos Gomez, Denard Span and Mallex Smith, the Rays can only manufacture so many runs.
Probable Pitchers
Most teams have five starters, some—like the Angels—have six. The Rays, on the other hand, only have three.
During the spring, Tampa Bay decided to go with a four-man rotation and go with a bullpen game anytime a fifth starter was needed. That was an okay plan, in theory, but then Nathan Eovaldi went down and the Rays were left with three.
Chris Archer, Blake Snell and Jacob Faria are all slated to pitch in Tampa’s series against Boston to open the year, leaving them without a starter for Monday.
Obviously, someone will start on Monday, but the Rays may already have to phone the minors for a spot starter or go to another bullpen game just two days after their first bullpen affair. The former would help save the pen, but the latter may be the direction they go.
Matt Andriese is in the pen now and was a starter last year, he’s not fully stretched out, but could give a few innings if he doesn’t pitch before Monday.
Given the uncertainty of who’s taking the ball for the Rays, the Yankees are in a better position almost by default with Jordan Montgomery. Of course, Montgomery threw well in his rookie campaign last year, making the advantage even greater.
In 29 starters for the Bronx Bombers in 2017, Montgomery pitched to a 3.88 ERA and 4.07 FIP. He struck out 8.3 per nine innings, limited walks to three per nine and allowed 21 homers, the same amount as Luis Severino and C.C. Sabathia, both regarded as better pitchers.
Montgomery is the staff’s No.5 starter, but he’s still a dependable arm. He’s never been a top prospect and doesn’t have electric stuff, but over the course of his minor league career he’s gotten outs and kept his team in the game.
That’s essentially the job description for a starter and he’s done that in the minors and now, in a full season at the Major League level.
On the negative side for New York, Montgomery did face the Rays three times in 2017 and was okay at best. He did strikeout 17 in 13.1 innings, but he also allowed 17 hits, five walks and eight runs. Of course, that was a much more prolific Tampa Bay offense with a ton more home run pop.
Live Betting
The Yankees have a better offense with more ways of scoring runs than the Rays. They also have the advantage on the mound to start the game considering the Tampa Bay starter remains a questions mark.
To win on Monday, the Rays will need the bullpen to shoulder the brunt of the pitching load and while the Rays do have nine relievers on the roster—more than the Yankees—they’re still not as deep as New York in that department.
Alex Colome is a good closer, if the game gets to him with a lead, and Sergio Romo is a proven vet while Jose Alvarado, Yonny Chirinos and others have potential. That’s all fine and the Rays have a proven track record of finding dependable relievers, but not team in baseball can matchup with New York’s pen.
Aroldis Chapman is regarded as one of the game’s best closers. He, David Robertson, Dellin Betances, Chad Green and Tommy Kahnle are as dominant as relivers come. All of them rack up well over a strikeout an inning. They can flat out over power the best hitters in the game and proved just that during the Yankees’ postseason run in 2017.
Even if one reliever is off his game, there are enough options to pick him up. The Yankees can effectively shorten a game to five or six frames for a starter. If Montgomery can go two times through the Rays’ order, this game is basically in the books for New York.
MLB Pick
This is a David versus Goliath story, but don’t expect David to exit victorious. The Rays’ roster is lacking at a lot of spots, but most notably in the starting rotation.
Tampa Bay has been a scrappy team for years, fighting hard against the big boys with a fraction of the payroll, but the success has long come thanks to a strong starting rotation. That’s not here in this game as neither Chris Archer, Blake Snell nor Jake Faria are making the start.
There’s still pitching on the team, just not for Monday’s series opener against the Yankees. While Jordan Montgomery is not a top of the rotation arm, he proved himself solid-enough last year, particularly when the Rays will be piecemealing the game together.
With more predictable innings to start the game and a nearly impenetrable bullpen, the Rays’ offense—which is questionable—doesn’t stand much of a change.
As for the Yankees’ offense, it features some of the games’ most prolific hitters. That’s more than enough to give the Yankees the edge. Look for New York to win this one handily.
MLB Odds: Yankees 9, Rays 2
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