The Tampa Bay Rays took care of business handily against the Athletics in Oakland on Wednesday night to advance to this series. Now, they get to take on baseball’s best team—based on record—in a five-game set. The Houston Astros will host the Rays for the first two games before the series shifts to St. Petersburg in a series featuring stadiums sponsored by orange juice brands. The Rays will be looking for the upset, but Houston is the favorite to go the distance leaving most to wonder if this series ends at Tropicana Field or Minute Maid Park with less question of who ultimately wins.
The American League Division Series between the Rays and Astros will begin on Friday, October 4, 2019 at 2:05 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park. FS1 and MLB Network will share the broadcasting rights for this series.
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Odds Analysis
The Astros are heavy favorites in this series despite the Rays winning the season series against Houston, four games to three.
Tampa Bay won’t be scared in this series, but—at least on paper—they will be out manned. While the Rays did win the season series head-to-head, the reason for that was a four-game series to open the season. It’s hard to put much stock on a battle way back in April.
As for how the teams stack up now, both clubs bring some momentum to the matchup. The Rays, of course, sent the A’s home in the AL Wild Card game and will be riding high off that win. Having played on Wednesday, they’re also less likely to be rusty out of the gate compared to the Astros who spent the better part of a week between competitive games.
The rest factor aside, Houston is 12-2 in their last 14 games and have a seeming advantage in nearly every facet of the game save—perhaps—the bullpen where Houston still has plenty of solid options.
Probable Pitchers
We have a clear picture of the pitching matchups for this series and in nearly every case, the Astros have an advantage.
The series should kick off on Friday with a Justin Verlander on the hill for the Astros while the Rays are expected to send Tyler Glasnow to the bump.
Glasnow has had a nice season when he’s been healthy. He’s 6-1 with a 1.78 ERA but has only pitched in 12 games and has just 60.2 innings of work, having spent nearly fourth months of the season on the IL.
The 25-year old right-hander has made just four starts since coming off the IL and has yet to work his way up to than 66 pitches and 4.1 innings. He’ll be allowed to go a bit further on Friday if he’s throwing well but doesn’t figure to go much beyond five frames.
While length may be an issue, quality hasn’t been since coming back from injury. In the four starts since his return, he’s allowed just two runs. In his last three starts, he’s gone 10.1 innings with just four hits and three walks allowed. He’s struck out 16 without allowing a run in that time.
Glasnow faced Houston back in April and went five innings, giving up just one run against them.
While Glasnow will be lucky to go five in Game 1, Houston’s starter is likely to significantly deeper as Verlander has 223 innings of work in 34 games this season.
The Houston ace is a Cy Young contender having gone 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA and 0.803 WHIP. The 36-year old right-hander looks as strong as ever having put up a 7.8 WAR season while striking out 300 batters. His wins, innings pitched, WHIP and K:BB ratio all lead the league.
On top of all that, Verlander comes into October having pitched well down the stretch and finding success against the Rays this year, allowing just a single run in 12.1 combined innings.
Verlander is also a proven postseason arm. He was crucial to the Astros 2017 World Series title and has a 3.19 career postseason ERA in 152.1 innings. He’s 13-7 overall and is 7-0 with a 2.38 ERA in ALDS matchups.
Moving on to Game 2, the Astros have another Cy Young contender taking the ball in Gerrit Cole while the Rays turn to another talented pitcher coming off an injury.
Blake Snell has made just three starts since coming off the IL and hasn’t quite gotten as deep into a game as Glasnow making him more likely to go just three of four for the Rays in Game 2.
While the outing may be short, Snell is a quality pitcher and last year’s AL Cy Young Award winner after pitching to a 21-5 record and 1.89 ERA. He is 6-8 with a 4.29 ERA in 2019 but has shown flashes of the same brilliance he showed last year. In fact, his 3.32 FIP this year is only slightly elevated from the 2.94 FIP he posted in 2018.
A big strikeout arm, Snell has struck out 147 batters in 107 innings and done a reasonably good job limiting homers as well.
Snell went on the IL in mid-July, coming off to make a start on September 17. Since then, he’s made three starts, going a combined six innings and allowing three runs on five hits and five walks while strikeout 11.
Like Glasnow in Game 1, the Rays are going with a good pitcher, but there are plenty of questions. There aren’t too many questions about Cole.
The Houston Game 2 starter was 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA and 0.895 WHIP. His 185 ERA+ leads the league as does his 2.64 FIP.
Cole struck out 326 batters in 212.1 innings pitched and has found some postseason success in a handful of opportunities in October.
The power righty has already put himself in excellent position for his upcoming free agency but could put himself in an even better position with a good October showing. He’s got a good chance to do just that, too. He’s pitched brilliantly down the stretch, going 5-0 with a 1.07 ERA in 42 innings over his last six starts.
The only downside for the Astros in this Game 2 matchup is the Rays managed to plate four runs against Cole in both his starts against them this season.
On the pitching side, at least, the Astros are well positioned in the first two games at home. The matchup in Game 3 at Tropicana Field is a bit more balanced with a pair of durable starters taking the mound.
Former Astro Charlie Morton is slated to start for the Rays after giving Tampa Bay five quality innings against Oakland in their Wild Card win.
Morton reinvented himself in Houston but has carried over the success to Tampa Bay going 16-6 with a 3.05 ERA this season. The 35-yaer old right-hander has a 2.81 FIP and 1.084 WHIP in 194.2 innings of work and has been particularly good at avoiding the home run giving up just 15 this season despite the ball flying out of most parks at a record pace.
The veteran righty pitched well against the Astros in his first start against them this year, but struggled in an August outing in Houston, allowing six runs in just four innings. He’ll look to do better this time and will be pitching at home where he had a 2.59 ERA in 17 starts this year.
The Astros counter their former hurler with their newest starter in Zack Greinke. The veteran right-hander isn’t a power pitcher like the first two in the Houston staff, but he’s still an ace-level pitcher. In his 10 starts since joining the Astros, he’s gone 8-1 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.069 WHIP. He went 18-5 with a 2.93 ERA and 0.982 WHIP in 208.2 innings combined between Houston and Arizona.
Interestingly, Greinke’s worst start as an Astro came against the Rays when he allowed five runs in 5.2 innings of work back in August. Since then, however, he’s thrown very well including a near no-hitter to close the season when he ultimately ended up going 8.1 innings of two-hit ball.
The Game 4 starter is the one question mark for the Astros and it’s a question for Tampa Bay, too.
Houston will go with either a struggling Wade Miley or an inexperienced Jose Urquidy. Miley had a nice year going 14-6 with a 3.98 ERA but hasn’t gotten more than three outs in three of his last five starts and has a 16.68 September ERA. Urquidy is pitching better than that lately—after all, it’s hard to do much worse.
The rookie right-hander just seven starts and nine appearances in the Majors but is 2-1 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.092 WHIP. Either way, the starter for Houston will have a short leash.
The Rays could go with an opener in Game 4. Whether as an opener or as the second guy up, Yonny Chirinos and Ryan Yarbrough are the most likely options to see the most innings. Chirinos is 9-5 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in 133.1 innings but missed most of the last two months and would be limited just like Glasnow and Snell, having pitched no more than 38 pitches in any outing since August 4. Yarbrough, however, was 11-6 with a 4.13 ERA and 0.995 WHIP, but is coming off three straight losses.
Bullpen Breakdown
Starting pitching, without a doubt, heavily favors the Astros in this series. Tampa Bay has some quality arms, but save for Morton, won’t get much depth, putting a huge burden on the bullpen and on Kevin Cash to push the right buttons.
Fortunately for the Rays, they do have the best bullpen in baseball, at least based on team bullpen ERA. Tampa Bay finished the year at 3.66. Houston was just a few spots down at 3.75.
The two biggest names in the pen for Tampa Bay are Nick Anderson and Emilio Pagan, two diamonds in the rough journeyman types. Anderson was acquired midseason but is the team’s biggest weapon. He’s struck out about half the batters he’s faced since joining the Rays, including striking out four of the five he faced in the Wild Card game.
When the Rays need a bit K, they have Anderson as the go-to option. In the regular season, he recorded 41 saves in just 21.1 innings since joining Tampa Bay.
Pagan, meanwhile, is a lockdown option against right-handers. Righties have a meager .193 OBP against him. Overall, he’s got a 2.31 ERA and has been a huge piece in the closer’s role.
In addition to those two, there are a slew of other quality arms that provide different looks all of whom Cash has seemingly put in at the right time to find success. From Diego Castillo to Hunter Wood, there are options and all the arms will be utilized in this series.
Houston doesn’t quite have the same level of depth, but the Astros don’t need to either. With three ace-level starters, the bullpen isn’t likely to pitch more than a couple innings in the first three games. If this series goes beyond that, the Astros may have to use a few more arms in Game 4, but they’ve got a solid pen, too.
Roberto Osuna has been a strong option in the closer’s role. He had a 2.63 ERA and 0.877 WHIP during the season while recording 38 saves. He did regress a bit in the second half and occasionally allowed the longball, but overall was a strong option in the ninth.
Leading up to Osuna, Will Harris and Ryan Pressly are the primary options. Pressly was lights out to start the year with a 1.36 first half ERA but pitched to a 4.91 mark in 16 second half games. Nevertheless, he’s still got filthy stuff and seemed to get back on track over his last few appearances.
Offensive Comparison
Somehow the Twins and Yankees both outscored the Astros this season, but Houston still put up a staggering 920 runs while leading the Majors with a .848 team OPS. Houston took things up a level in the second half with a .887 OPS and league leading 462 runs scored, 22 more than the Yankees.
This Houston offense is just staggeringly deep. Carlos Correa is expected back for this series, giving the Astros seven starts with an OPS+ of at least 126. Despite playing just 75 games, Correa is one of seven players with at least 21 home runs. The team has four with at least 31 jacks in Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve, George Springer, and Alex Bregman. Yordan Alvarez, meanwhile, was only a few away with 27 home runs in 87 games.
Alvarez is the likely AL Rookie of the Year while Bregman is a contender for the MVP. The former posted a .313/.412/.655 slash line while the latter has a .296/.423/.592 slash line. The two lead the team in OBP but are far from the only on-base machines in the lineup. Seven different players have at least 200 at bats and an OBP above .350. Top to bottom, this team can mash. The lineup also has plenty of patients to make the opposing pitcher work which is particularly dangerous for the Rays who are relying on starters who are unlikely to go five innings save for Morton.
While the Astros are one of the league’s most prolific offenses we’ve seen in a long time, the Rays rank in the middle of the pack in runs scored and team OPS. The lineup is effective enough but doesn’t come close to as dominating as the Astros.
That said, the offense looked great in the Wild Card game with Yandy Diaz leading the way, slamming a pair of home runs to lead the team to a 5-1 victory.
Tampa Bay can hit the long ball when needed, but the team can also manufacture runs with the big hit. They’ve got a collection of selfless players who form a very effective team, but the talent level just doesn’t match up to Houston.
Tommy Pham, Brandon Lowe, Ji-Man Choi, Jesus Aguilar, Travis d’Arnaud, Avisail Garcia, and even Austin Meadows are quality, but underappreciated, players.
Meadows leads the team with 33 home runs and a .922 OPS and while that was a monster year for the young outfielder, it would rank maybe fifth on the Astros.
MLB Pick
For the intellectual baseball fan, this is a truly interesting series. The Astros and Rays are, perhaps, two of the most analytically minded teams in the game.
Tampa Bay shifts more than any other team and tries to gain the small advantage wherever it can give its lack of spending power. That is a big part of how this team got to where it is. They’ve maximized their talent, but against Houston, they’re analytical edge is gone.
Baseball is a game where even the worst team can beat the best team occasionally, so it’s hard to speak with certainty about a short series, but it’s hard to see a scenario where the Astros drop this series. Tampa Bay may salvage a game, but the starting pitching and offense are just too much the Rays to get the upset in this series.
Tampa Bay may have a good team and a great bullpen, but look for the pen to get worn down with the number of innings against such a great lineup.
While Cole and Greinke didn’t throw their best games against Tampa Bay this year, look for them to set up their games while Verlander throws a gem in Game 1. Houston should take both games at home while the Rays could possible steal Morton’s start in the first game at Tropicana Field.
Look for the Rays to maybe steal a game, but ultimately bank on the Astros in four in this series.
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