The Texas Rangers and Boston Red Sox will close out a three-game series on Wednesday night with Texas’ Bartolo Colon going for the record for most career wins by a Latin American pitcher. The veteran right-hander will have his work cut out for him if he’s to achieve that record, facing one of the game’s best teams and one of the league’s best pitchers with All-Star southpaw Chris Sale toeing the rubber for the Sox.
First pitch for the game between the Rangers and Red Sox is scheduled for Wednesday, July 11, 2018, at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
Leading into the Rangers’ series, the Red Sox swept back-to-back series against the Nationals and Royals.
Going back a bit further, the Sox are 10-2 in their last 12 games and have scored double-digit runs in five of their last 13 games as the offense is scorching hot.
No team has scored more than Boston this year, plating 489 runs in 91 games while slamming 128 home runs and posting a MLB leading .798 team OPS.
Since joining the Sox, Steve Pearce has played in seven games and is 9-for-20 with four doubles, adding a spark off the bench—and in the lineup—against lefties.
The team still has Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez as two of the league’s best hitters with a 1.105 and 1.039 OPS respectively. Betts has a .342 average, 22 home runs and 44 RBIs with 16 steals atop the order while Martinez is tops in the league in homers with 27 and RBIs with 74 while also sporting a very strong .329 average.
In addition to those two, Andrew Benintendi is having a huge sophomore season with a .293/.379/.515 slash line. He’s amongst the final vote contenders for the All-Star game.
As if those three weren’t enough, Mitch Moreland is an All-Star, Xander Bogaerts has a .875 OPS and even Rafael Devers has picked up his game after a slow start. In his last 26 games, he’s batting .282 with five homers, 20 RBIs and a .816 OPS.
The Sox’s lineup still has a few holes—namely at catcher—but they’re far more balanced than the Rangers.
Sure, Texas has Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre back, but Andrus has slumped since his return, batting .205 with a .244 OBP. Beltre is still a consistently good hitter with a .295 average, but his power isn’t what it once was as he’s now 39-years old.
Of course, Joey Gallo brings the power with 21 homers, but his .188 average is a far cry from what the Sox’s 20-homer bats are producing.
Probable Pitchers
Bartolo Colon will take a shot at his 246th career win on Wednesday, but the odds are certainly against the 45-year old.
Colon has been worth 0.8 WAR so far this season. He’s still a Major League quality player, but his value has been shrinking in recent years. He’s had a bounce back of sorts this year, but with a 4.65 ERA, he’s got a 97 ERA+, making him, at best, a mid-rotation arm.
The peripheral numbers, however, paint a grimmer picture. The righty has a 5.30 FIP due to a 5.3 strikeout per nine inning ratio and 22 home runs allowed in only 100.2 innings of work.
While Colon does keep the ball in the zone—he’s only walking 1.3 per nine innings, he’s sometimes in the zone too much and good hitting teams, like the Red Sox, can take advantage of all the strikes.
Boston beat Colon and the Rangers when they faced him back in May and scored four runs—all on solo homers—against him in his seven innings of work. In his last start, Colon gave up just three runs in eight innings, but even there, he allowed two homers.
On the positive side, however, Colon had given up just one homer combined in his previous three starts. He’s also allowed three runs or fewer in four straight outings.
On the other side of this match up, Chris Sale is the Sox’s ace. He’ll be on the hill for the series finale. The southpaw has done well in his career against the Rangers. Earlier this year, Sale threw seven-innings of one run ball against Texas, proving his career ERA against the Rangers to 3.12 in 13 career appearances.
The lefty has already been worth five wins above replacement, the second highest total on the Sox behind Mookie Betts.
Sale’s a true ace with an ERA+ nearly double that of Colon at 183 and a 9-4 record, 2.36 ERA and 0.893 WHIP. On top of that, he’s struck out 176 in 122 innings and has a 5.87 strikeout to walk ratio and 12 fewer homers allowed than Colon in over 20 more innings. As a result, his FIP of 2.26 is right in line with his sparkling ERA.
Unlike Colon, Sale’s got the ability to get the big strikeout almost at will and he’s also been good at keeping the ball in the yard.
Over his last six games, he’s struck out at least nine in each and has allowed no home runs. He’s also recorded a quality start in all six games and has pitched to a 1.10 ERA in that span. He’s also posted a 66:6 strikeout to walk ratio. He’s on top of his game right now.
Live Betting
Devers, Martinez and Moreland have all hit two homers against Colon while Betts having a long ball of his own in four at bats. The Sox have had success against Colon and will try and get an early lead before the Texas bullpen comes in.
The Rangers’ pen has pitched reasonably well, ranking fifth in the AL with a 3.52 ERA, two spots behind the Sox’s 3.20 ERA.
Jesse Chavez has been a good long reliever for Texas while Jake Diekman, Jose Leclerc, Alex Claudio and Keona Kela give Jeff Banister enough versatility to mix and match.
Claudio’s had his struggles over the last month, but Kela has really thrown well, converting all eight saves chances in the last 30 days.
Boston, meanwhile, has finally gotten Tyler Thornburg back in their pen. He’s been injured since he came over from Milwaukee and has had a rough start, but once the rust is gone, the stuff should play and give Alex Cora a nice set up option to Craig Kimbrel.
Speaking of Kimbrel, the closer continues to dominate, effectively shortening the game to eight innings. Ahead of him, there are plenty of options for Cora to choose from.
MLB Pick
The Red Sox have one of the game’s best lineups, a solid bullpen and perhaps the AL’s best pitcher on the mound on Wednesday. If that’s not a formula for success, I’m not sure what is.
Look for Boston to score a few runs against Colon. Big Sexy has had a good enough season considering his age and does well to keep the ball in the zone, but the Sox have the hitters to take advantage. Colon doesn’t have the overpowering stuff of his youth.
Count on a couple homers by the Sox big bats in route to a sizable victory over the rebuilding Rangers. Texas may be able to score a few runs, but it won’t be nearly enough as Sale has another strong game against the Rangers and the Boston bullpen closes the game out with little drama.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 7, Rangers 3
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