The Texas Rangers have lost four games in a row and go into Houston to take on the Houston Astros over the weekend, capped off by ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball matchup on Sunday night. The battle for the state of Texas used to favor the Rangers not too long ago, but you need look no further than the pitching matchup which features Bartolo Colon and Justin Verlander to see just how much the tides have changed.
First pitch for the game between the Rangers and Astros is scheduled for Sunday, April 15, 2018, at 8:08 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Astros and Rangers opened the 2018 season playing each other and will wrap up their second series of the year on Sunday.
In a four-game set in Texas, the Astros took three games, including an Opening Day start with Verlander on the mound.
Houston outscored the Rangers by 11 runs in the four games.
Offensively, the Astros were first in baseball in runs scored in 2017 and are swinging well in the early going of 2018.
Josh Reddick, in particular, has been on fire with a 1.074 OPS. He’s hitting .323 with a team leading three bombs. Of course, the infield of Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman continually get the job done at the dish.
In Texas, the Rangers are 4-10 and a lot of it comes down to the offense, though pitching has been a major issue, too.
The Rangers have way too much swing and miss in the lineup. Most of the order outside of Elvis Andrus, Adrian Beltre, Nomar Mazara and Shin-Soo Choo is flirting with—or below—the Mendoza Line.
Probable Pitchers
A decade ago, this would be a battle of two aces. In 2018, it’s a veteran ace and a 44-year old desperately trying to hold on.
Up until last year, Bartolo Colon was an ageless wonder. After debuting in the Majors at 24 years of age in 1997, Colon is still throwing big league innings, but he’s on a tight rope and the likely end of his career.
After winning 15 games and posting a 3.43 ERA in 34 games for the Mets in 2016, Colon had a 7-14 record and 6.48 ERA split between the Braves and Twins last year.
Even with the terrible season and advanced age, Colon still managed to land himself in the big leagues again here in 2018. Injuries have kept him there for now, but he’s thrown well in three games with two runs allowed in 11 innings.
Colon’s fastball is vastly diminished, but his command remains key to his success. He’s walked one in 11 innings and doesn’t get himself in trouble. Of course, the Astros are not a team that needs free passes. They can earn their way on base.
Justin Verlander, opposite of Colon, is not just a novelty act.
After reinventing himself, Verlander has re-emerged as an ace over the last handful of seasons.
The 35-year old threw his first game for the Astros in September, but is one of the biggest reasons Houston won the World Series in 2017. He’s now made eight regular season starts for the Astros and is 7-0 with a 1.20 ERA. He’s 2-0 with a 1.45 in 2018 and has 23 strikeouts in 18.2 innings.
Verlander is a strikeout pitcher. He averaged 11.4 per nine innings last year and the Rangers are full of swing and miss in their lineup.
Live Betting
When a team wins a World Series, it’s hard to find too many faults, but it was clear with how A.J. Hinch used his pen in the playoffs that the relief core was an issue.
The Astros improved the rotation in the offseason, but left the bullpen without a big-name addition, instead opting to add Joe Smith and Hector Rondon. Still, the pen is much improved if nothing else by bumping Brad Peacock and Collin McHugh into relief roles.
McHugh’s looked good in his four appearances out of the pen and Peacock has been the most used reliever, pitching eight innings. He’s been getting looks at the end of the game in lieu of supposed closer Ken Giles.
It appears the role of closer is somewhat split between the two hurlers. Giles still looks somewhat vulnerable, but between Peacock, Chris Devenski, Will Harris and Rondon, there are some quality arms.
That’s more than can be said for the Rangers. Texas has gotten results from Keone Kela in the closer role, but the team’s bigger issue is getting to him.
MLB Pick
Verlander has yet to lose a regular season start as an Astro. He’s 7-0 with a 1.20 ERA since joining Houston and it seems unlike the Rangers would be the first to hand him a loss.
On the other side, Colon is not the same pitcher he was in his prime. He’s still a strike thrower, but no longer has the stuff to fool the opposition.
Look for Houston to score a few early runs, jumping on Colon’s tendency to stay within the strike zone. This is a potent offense and Colon’s smoke and mirror routine won’t fly.
On the other side, Verlander and the Astros’ bullpen should hold the Rangers down, giving the Astros a rather easy win.
MLB Odds: Astros 7, Rangers 2
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