The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox continue their four-game series on Friday the 13th at historic Fenway Park for the second game of the series. Boston has owned the Blue Jays—and most of the rest of the AL—to this point in the season, winning seven of nine meetings. Rick Porcello will be tasked with keeping that going on Friday as he gets the start for Boston. The Jays haven’t yet revealed their scheduled starter for the contest.
First pitch for the game between the Blue Jays at Red Sox is scheduled for Friday, July 13, 2018, at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. The matchup will be televised nationally on MLB Network.
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Odds Analysis
The Red Sox have won eight straight games heading into Wednesday and are 13-2 in their last 15 games.
Boston’s played well all year, but they’re playing exceptionally well right now save for their two losses, both of which came in a tough series against the Yankees.
Matched up against lesser teams, the Sox have dominated. They’re 25-7 against the other three teams in the AL East other than the Yankees. That includes a great run against Toronto.
In their success, offense has been key. Boston has scored more runs in 2018 than any other team and has scored at least seven times in five of their last seven games. They’ve scored fewer than four runs just twice since June 23.
It’s hard to keep the Boston offense down and offensively the Sox and Jays are certainly mismatched.
Without Josh Donaldson, the Blue Jays have been an average offense at best, scoring over 100 fewer runs than the Sox.
Justin Smoak, Teoscar Hernandez and Curtis Granderson are solid big league bats, but don’t compare to Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez or Andrew Benintendi. In fact, Smoak’s 125 OPS+ leads the Jays, but the Sox have five starters with a better OPS.
Boston also has Steve Pearce now, too. The former Jay has been a great righty hitter off the bench for Boston since the deal.
Probable Pitchers
While Chris Sale is the ace of the Red Sox staff, it’s Rick Porcello and Eduard Rodriguez who lead the team in wins with 11. Porcello is on the hill for Boston on Friday.
It’s been an up-and-down career in Boston since coming over from the Tigers, but the 2018 season seems to be another good one for the Sox’s right-hander. He’s 11-3 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in 118 innings spread over 19 starts. He’s giving Boston both quality and length.
The sinker baller is coming off a seven-inning, three-run performance against the Royals and has pitched well in two starts this year against Toronto with a 3.29 ERA and a win.
The Blue Jays have yet to announce their starter for this game, but the team’s been juggling starters due to rotation injuries. Marco Estrada would be in line to make the start if healthy, but he left his last start with a glute strain and may not be available. If not, it could fall to Ryan Borucki.
Estrada’s 4-7 on the season with a 4.72 ERA and 1.316 WHIP in his 17 starts. He’s thrown just 89.2 innings overall and hasn’t been able to go deep in many games.
The right-hander’s first two years in Toronto where great, but he had a 4.98 ERA last year and has been much the same mediocre pitcher here in 2018.
He went just a third of an inning before leaving his last start, but was throwing pretty well in his previous five outings, going 2-1 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.987 WHIP. His improved command has been key compared to his struggles in the first two months of the season. Still, the Jays are 8-9 overall when he takes the ball.
As for Borucki, he’s made only three starts in the majors, but has looked good in his short sample size, pitching to a 2.25 ERA in 20 innings though he’s still looking for his first win. He was 6-5 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in 13 starts at Triple-A Buffalo before getting the call.
Live Betting
Among a number of holes in the Jays’ lineup is a lack of quality relief pitching since the suspension of Roberto Osuna. Prior to that, Osuna was a lockdown closer and the rest of the pen lined up well, leading up to him.
Losing Osuna, however, impacted the rest of the pen. Tyler Clippard and Seunghwan Oh have been okay, but the pen’s not exactly been lockdown and the Red Sox have the hitters to score on the relievers.
In Boston, the back end is secured by Craig Kimbrel. Should he be needed, he can easily shutdown the Blue Jay lineup. The set up options around him are a bit better, too.
As for head-to-head matchups, Donaldson—who remains on the DL—and Smoak are the only Jays with much success against Porcello.
On the other hand, Estrada has owned most Boston hitters in his career with the injured Dustin Pedroia the exception though this Estrada is different than the one that dominated the AL East in 2015 and 2016.
MLB Pick
Boston is the best team in the American League whereas the Blue Jays are just happy they share a division with the Orioles to avoid sitting in the cellar.
As a result, the odds should favor the Red Sox substantially. Look for Boston to get the easy win, particularly with Porcello throwing well.
Look for Porcello to pitch through the sixth and leave with a lead and a quality start, giving the ball over to a pretty solid Red Sox bullpen to close it out.
Meanwhile, regardless of who starts for the Jays, the Red Sox should have plenty of opportunities on offense. They’ve got five players who really should be All-Stars along with others like Brock Holt and Rafael Devers who are no slouches either. This is the best offense in baseball, they will get there runs.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 7, Blue Jays 3
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