A big four-game series between two National League contenders wraps up on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball this weekend as the Arizona Diamondbacks play host to the Washington Nationals in this series finale. The D-backs will look to maintain—or extend—their NL West lead in the game as they play a sudden hot Nationals’ squad. Jeremy Hellickson will take the hill for the Nationals against Zack Godley of the Diamondbacks.
First pitch for the game between the Nationals and Diamondbacks is scheduled for Sunday, May 13, 2018 at 8:08 p.m. ET at Chase Field. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
Over the whole season, the record shows that the Diamondbacks are the better team. In the shorter term of the last couple weeks, the Nationals have been better. Which is more important?
In a single game, the starting pitching matchup is as important as anything though offense and bullpen play a crucial role, too.
Offensively, the Nationals have out hit the Diamondbacks on the season. They’ve scored 19 more runs—albeit in a couple more games—and are hitting .242 as a team compared to .228. That’s a mark in the Nationals’ column, but playing at Chase, things even out there.
Where Arizona’s been effective is on the mound and in the field. The Diamondbacks have committed the fewest errors—12—in the sport. They’re making the plays they’re supposed to make and not giving the opposition more outs.
On the mound, the D-Backs have the best ERA in the NL at 3.17 and the bullpen is a big part of that. The Arizona bullpen ERA is 2.45, best in baseball. Meanwhile, Washington’s gotten good starting pitching, but their bullpen ERA is 4.66, in the bottom third in the sport.
Sean Doolittle has pitched well for Washington and Brandon Kintzler is getting more outs now, too, but the middle innings are suspect for the Nats.
In Arizona, the D-Backs are a team that just needs to get to the pen and they’re in good shape. Brad Boxberger has been electric in the closer’s role. He’s got a 2.25 ERA and 11 saves. His success has allowed Archie Bradley to remain in a flexible role that he thrived in last year. Tory Lovullo can use him to get the biggest outs at any time and he delivers to the tune of a 1.35 ERA and .800 WHIP.
Even beyond those two, Yashihisa Hiriano, Jorge De La Rosa, T.J. McFarland, Andrew Chafin, Silvino Bracho and others are all getting the job done and Lovullo has been pulling the right strings consistently.
Probable Pitchers
Opposing teams are generally happy to see Hellickson on the schedule compared to the Nationals’ other starters like Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, but Hellickson is having a nice season in the No.5 spot in the rotation.
After unseating a struggling A.J. Cole, Hellickson has done nothing but pitch well in five starts. He’s just 1-0, but has a 2.28 ERA in 27.2 innings. He’s not being given a long leash by Dave Martinez, but he’s given his team quality innings when he’s on the mound.
In fact, he’s coming off a no-hit bid that lasted six frames. He ultimately threw 6.2 innings, giving up just two hits and no walks while striking out eight.
Hellickson has not allowed a walk now in 12.1 innings in May and has a walk rate of 1.3 this season, half of his career average. Control is key for the right-hander. He doesn’t possess overpowering stuff and doesn’t typically strike out many batters. Instead, he needs the opposition to put the ball in play and let his defenders catch it. When he’s on his game, that’s exactly what he does. So far in 2018, he’s been on his game.
In his career, Hellickson is 6-6 with a 4.14 ERA at Chase Field. He has experience there given he pitched 2015 in Arizona. Those numbers are quite indicative of the sturdy, but unspectacular pitcher he’s been his entire career.
Hellickson’s career really doesn’t stand out, but standing out is exactly what Zack Godley did when he was thrust into the rotation last season.
Pitching to a 3.37 ERA and 1.142 WHIP in his 155 innings, Godley grabbed hold of a rotation spot and never let go. Now, he’s one of the team’s more reliable starters.
His 2018 has been a bit up-and-down, but he’s 4-2 with a 3.83 ERA. Those numbers are strong.
On the year, Godley’s command has plagued him at times. He’s already walked 18 batters in 40 innings, helping to lead to an inflated 1.450 WHIP. Nevertheless, he’s minimized damage and has allowed only three homers in seven starts.
Godley’s start against Washington in the Nation’s Capital earlier this year was a rough one, giving up 10 hits and three walks in five innings. He threw 109 pitches in the game, but kept Washington to four runs in five innings. By keeping the D-Backs in the game, he managed to still capture the win.
The 28-year old late bloomer is a quality Major League starter, but he’ll need to get his command under control to deliver Arizona another win against a Nationals team that comes into this series playing better baseball than they did in the last series between these two teams.
Live Betting
When it comes to the offenses, keep an eye on A.J. Pollock and Matt Adams.
Paul Goldschmidt is the heart of the Arizona lineup, but the first baseman hasn’t been great this year. He’s batting just .227. While he’s struggled, the D-Backs have gotten production elsewhere in the order, namely Pollock.
The centerfielder is the reigning Player of the Month and has amassed a 2.3 WAR on the season already. He’s batting .308 with a .365 OBP and .669 slugging percentage. His 11 home runs—23 extra base hits—and 32 RBIs stand out on the team though David Peralta, Daniel Descalso and even Nick Ahmed are doing their part to drive in runs, too.
Between Pollock, Peralta, Descalso and even just the threat of Goldschmidt, who still has 105 OPS+ despite his slow start, Arizona has a formidable lineup. That lineup is getting better now, too, as Steven Souza Jr. gets up to speed in right-field.
Souza was the big offseason acquisition to help mitigate the loss of J.D. Martinez. Souza lengthens the lineup and allows Chris Owings to move back into a utility role.
As for Matt Adams, he’s the red-hot hitter on the other side of this matchup.
Signed to take on the Adam Lind role of a year ago, Adams has gotten more playing time of late due to injuries and is delivering. With a .304/.421/.734 slash line, the traditional platoon bat is getting the job done against righties and lefties right now.
His torrid bat helps fill out a lineup that is still missing Adam Eaton and Daniel Murphy. Bryce Harper earlier joked that the team was essentially trotting out the Triple-A lineup. That’s not a good quote to support your teammates, but wasn’t all that inaccurate.
Harper was struggling a bit without much help, getting pitched around at every opportunity. Harper’s now hitless in a few games, but has Adams hitting well and Anthony Rendon back to give him more protection.
It’s no coincidence that as Adams has heated up and some of the big leaguers have returned to the roster, the Nationals have started to win.
MLB Pick
While Hellickson was brilliant in his last start, one cannot expect the same results next time out. The former D-Back could struggle a bit in the park he once called home. Even if he doesn’t, he’s yet to go deep in any game, leaving the Nationals’ vulnerable with a bullpen that’s struggled at times in the middle innings.
Look for Arizona to grab an early lead and provide Godley a bit of a buffer as he tries to overcome his recent cold spell.
This could be a close game through the middle innings—and primarily middle relief coming up big. In the end, look for the Diamondbacks bullpen to carry them to victory at home on national television.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks 6, Nationals 4
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