In the third game of a four-game weekend series, the Washington Nationals will face the Arizona Diamondbacks down in the desert as they try and get back to the top of the NL East. After a slow start, the Nationals have been playing better baseball, but is that enough to contend with the team with the NL’s best record? With Stephen Strasburg on the mound opposite a fill-in option for the D-Backs, they’ve certainly got the pitching matchup on their side.
First pitch for the game between the Nationals and Diamondbacks is scheduled for Saturday, May 12, 2018 at 4:05 p.m. ET at Chase Field. The matchup will be shown on Fox Sports 1.
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Odds Analysis
Arizona’s been the best team in the National League since the start of the season and they appear to be the real deal despite some key injuries.
Those injuries—namely to the pitching staff—however, have taken their toll. The D-Backs head into the Washington series just 3-4 in their last seven games and have seen their team ERA jump a bit. Nevertheless, this is still an elite team.
The Nationals are also a top-tier team though they started the season on a rough note. Sitting at 11-16 as recently as April 28, they’ve bounced back to sit a couple games over-.500 after a 9-2 stretch.
Washington has surged without much help from Bryce Harper, too. The slugging outfielder got the day off on Wednesday following four consecutive hitless games which dropped his average down to .230. He’s still sporting a lofty .410 OBP as the opposition has pitched around him anytime they’ve been given the chance.
With Anthony Rendon back in the fold and Matt Adams tearing the cover off the ball, there’s more support in the lineup for Harper now and he could start seeing more pitches to hit.
Probable Pitchers
Strasburg isn’t off to a lights-out start like teammate Max Scherzer or even Gio Gonzalez, but the veteran right-hander is still throwing the ball well. He’s 4-3 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in 53.2 innings of work. He’s made eight starts and is averaging close to seven innings a start.
The righty has done well to keep baserunner off the base paths with a low batting average against and manageable walk rate. Really, his biggest issue so far is the long ball. He’s allowed eight homers in eight games.
Strasburg already have five quality starts and went seven innings, giving up three runs in each of his last two starts, winning both.
Before that, however, he had his worst start of the season, allowing five runs in 6.1 innings. That came against this same Diamondbacks club. Arizona strung several hits against him, but only hit one homer in that game.
Despite the lackluster performance against Arizona last time, he’s pitched to a 3.59 career ERA in 10 starts against the D-Backs.
While Strasburg has yet to hit his stride on the season, the righty is still a top of the rotation arm which gives him the edge over Arizona’s starter.
The Diamondbacks haven’t even announced their starter for Saturday. The spot was once filled by Robbie Ray, but he’s on the DL. Kris Medlen made the start last time around, but he was since optioned back to the minors with Braden Shipley promoted in his place and expected to make the next available start. He’s since landed on the DL.
Taylor Clarke would be on normal rest in the minors and is now the odds-on favorite to get the nod.
Should he get the start, it would mark Clarke’s Major League debut, one day before his 25th birthday.
The young right-hander has climbed the D-Backs depth charts over the last few years and produced a strong 2.91 ERA in 21 starts at Double-A last year. He wasn’t quite as good in a small sample at Triple-A to end the season and has struggled a bit in the difficult PCL so far in 2018. In seven starts this year, he’s 2-5 with a 5.91 ERA. Control has been a huge issue as he’s walked 16 and allowed seven homers and 41 hits in 35 innings.
Live Betting
As one would expect, most of the Diamondbacks’ lineup has struggled in their careers against Strasburg though Paul Goldschmidt is one exception.
The D-Backs’ All-Star first baseman is batting just .227 with four homers and a .771 OPS. Those aren’t the numbers we expect from the slugger. A.J. Pollock’s torrid start and great at-bats from Daniel Descalso and others have covered his struggles, but it’s been a slow start for Goldy.
That said, he’s hit Strasburg well in his career and could get back on track against the ace. He’s 6-for-19 against him with a couple walks, giving him a .316 average a .381 OBP in limited at bats.
Arizona will need Goldschmidt and the rest of the lineup to swing well against Strasburg, which is a big ask.
They’re at a disadvantage on the mound against Washington and come into action colder over the last couple weeks.
MLB Pick
The Nationals are playing better baseball now than at the beginning of the year and have some added thump in the order around Harper.
Washington may struggle against Clarke the first time through the order as they get used to seeing the ball out of his hand, but there’s no denying theirs a pitching mismatch in this one.
Arizona has plenty of offense and should scratch across a few runs, but look for the Nationals to grab a lead by mid game and hold it. Strasburg is an ace-level pitcher and will give the Nats enough quality innings to get to the more proven portion of the bullpen.
Bank on Washington getting to Clarke and then maneuvering through the more vulnerable middle relievers in route to a victory on the road.
MLB Odds: Nationals 7, Diamondbacks 3
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