While battling it out atop the NL East, the Atlanta Braves will play host to the Washington Nationals over the weekend to stave off the divisional favorites. Atlanta’s been a pleasant surprise this season, outperforming expectations. The young core has developed faster than expectations, but does this team have enough to hold on through the dog days of summer? With the schedule flipping to June and the Nationals surging, we’re about to find out.
The series between the Nationals and Braves begins on Thursday, May 31, 2018 at 7:35 p.m. ET and runs through Sunday, June 3, 2018 at 1:35 p.m. ET. The Braves will host the Nationals at SunTrust Park in Atlanta. All games will be broadcast locally with Sunday afternoon’s showdown carried on MLB Network.
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Odds Analysis
It was a slow start to the season for the Nationals and the Braves took advantage with a strong start to grab the division lead.
Since going 11-16 through April 28, however, Washington is 19-6. After getting swept by the Dodgers following a rain soaked week, they’ve since knocked off the rust and are 6-1 going into Tuesday’s action.
A lot went wrong for Washington early, but things are starting to stabilize in the Nation’s Capital even as the Nationals continue to wait for a few key players to come off the DL.
While the Nationals are surging over the last month, the Braves may have started to regress. The Phillies and Red Sox both took the series against Atlanta who has split the first two game of their series with the Mets through Monday.
Losing five of eight gives us a chance to see how Atlanta can bounce back from adversity, particularly with Ronald Acuna on the DL for this series.
Without the star rookie, Atlanta should still be able to put up the offensive numbers. They’ve put up more runs than any other NL team this season and boast a .765 team OPS, second in the NL only to the Cubs.
The Braves rolled offensively in the first month without Acuna, but did so with a red-hot Ryan Flaherty who has since cooled. Still, they’ve got good offensive pieces with Johan Camargo swinging well at third, Nick Markakis still getting on base more than 40-percent of the time and a couple MVP candidates on the right side of the infield in Freddie Freeman and Ozzie Albies.
Freeman has a .333/.433/.542 slash line with a team high 40 RBIs while Albies has 14 homers and 34 RBIs with a .275 average.
On the National’s side of things, they’re finally getting some support for Bryce Harper. Ryan Zimmerman, Howie Kendrick, Adam Eaton and Daniel Murphy are all on the shelf, but Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon and Matt Adams are all swinging well. Meanwhile, Mark Reynolds and Juan Soto have been raking the last week plus since their respective promotions.
Reynolds has hit five homers in 11 games while Soto is 8-for-25 with four extra base hits, already showing the ability to adjust at the Major League level despite his young age.
All in all, the stats favor the Braves given their edge in most team categories, but over the last month, the Nationals’ team OPS is .763 to the Braves’ .747.
Probable Pitchers
Neither team has announced the rotations for the four-game set in Atlanta this weekend, but the pitching matchups could lineup with the Braves trotting out Sean Newcomb, Mike Foltynewicz, Brandon McCarthy and Anibal Sanchez against Tanner Roark, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jeremy Hellickson.
Provided the rotations stay in turn, the Braves will miss Max Scherzer in the series which is, of course, great news for Atlanta’s chances at a series split, or better.
Even without the three-time Cy Young Award winner slated to start in the series, the Nationals would still seem to have the advantage, on paper, in most of these pitching matchups.
Thursday may be the most favorable matchup for Atlanta. Roark is on the bump for Washington. The National’s fourth starter, Roark has some great seasons under his belt, but the 31-year old right-hander is often overlooked in the rotation given his 4.67 ERA last year.
Still, the righty is pitching well in 2018. He’s got a 3.17 ERA in 10 starts. He’s providing a quality start in most of his outings and has been excellent keeping hitters off base with fewer than one baserunner per inning. He also held the Braves to one run in seven innings, capturing the win, in his first start of the year.
While Roark is good, Newcomb has the better record and ERA. He’s 5-1 with a 2.75 ERA and his 3.10 FIP show he’s doing it on more than just luck. Yes, Newcomb walks too many batters with one every other inning, but he’s notched 62 strikeouts in 55.2 innings and has done an excellent job keeping the ball in the park with just three homers allowed in 10 games. Newcomb pitched opposite of Roark in the game back in April and struggled going 4.1 innings and allowing six runs. He, however, has had a 2.10 ERA in nine games since.
As well as Newcomb is throwing, Foltynewicz has been the ace of the staff. He matches up with Strasburg, an ace anywhere other than Washington.
Strasburg is 6-4 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in a team leading 72 innings. He’s going six to seven innings every start. He’s striking out 10.4 per nine innings. His biggest flaw though has been the longball. He’s allowed 10 this year, but just two in his last four starts.
The Nats’ righty last faced Atlanta on April 10, capturing his second win with eight scoreless innings, giving up only five base runners.
Folty was okay in two starts this year against Washington, but he comes into play with the better ERA than Strasburg at 2.55 after giving up two just a single run per game over his last four starts. Since May 10, he’s gone 23 innings with a 0.78 ERA. That included matches against good teams like the Cubs, Phillies and Red Sox.
The young righty’s history against the Nationals isn’t great, but he’s throwing the ball really well going into the game and could match up well against the Nats’ more established arm.
In the final two games of the series, the Braves turn to their veteran arms in McCarthy and Sanchez.
McCarthy’s been the weak link lately. He allowed five runs in 5.1 innings against the Mets on Monday to see his ERA balloon to 5.02. He didn’t allow a walk, which had been a problem, but was far too hittable.
After a good April—including a one run, five-inning start against Washington—he’s 1-2 with a 7.46 ERA in five starts in May. Perhaps June will be better. The Braves are certainly hoping so.
Atlanta will also have to hope Anibal Sanchez can deliver a good outing on Sunday. He’s a few years removed from his last good season, but was good in three early season appearances before going on the DL, but he’s struggled in his Triple-A rehab starts.
With questions surrounding the veterans in the last two games of the series for the Braves, the Nationals look to have the advantage in those games with Gonzalez and Hellickson.
Gonzo is an ever-reliable southpaw. He’s 6-2 with a 2.10 ERA in 64.1 innings. As per usual, he’s exceeding his FIP and has shown an issue with command from time-to-time. Though those command issues result in misses out of the zone rather than in it. He’ll allow base runners, but can work out of jams well.
As for Hellickson, he’s been great since joining the rotation after signing a minor-league contract late in the offseason. The righty has only one decision in seven games—a win—but is pitching to a 2.13 ERA in 38 innings.
Live Betting
The Braves have the better record, but when you break it all down, they’ve been better than the sum of their parts. Washington, to this point, has been the opposite, though injuries play a key role.
One area that both teams could use an upgrade is in the bullpen.
The Braves have gotten a lot from Arodys Vizcaino who has pitched well in the closer’s role despite being a bit over his head at times. He’s a good reliever, but would benefit from being pushed up a spot. As of now, however, he’s in the ninth with Shane Carle and A.J. Minter setting him up.
The Braves’ bullpen with the three hurlers already named along with Dan Winkler’s 0.84 ERA and Jesse Biddle have exceeded all expectations. They’re getting the job done for now. They have a bullpen ERA a half run better than the Nationals to prove it, too.
Nevertheless, Washington’s pen—like their offense—has come together during their recent run. Sean Doolittle has gotten the job done in the closer’s role with a 1.93 ERA while Dave Martinez has mixed and matched recently to get to him.
Tim Collins is a great story, but the pen is still lacking some consistent set up men. If Atlanta is to exploit a team that looks more talented on paper, it’ll have to come in the middle innings.
MLB Pick
The Braves have started to show signs of slipping. They’ve gotten to where they are now a little on smoke and mirrors and a little on fast development of key young players.
The player development looks real, but the pitching isn’t quite there to compete with a National’s team playing good baseball.
Look for the Nationals to steal the final two games of this series in Atlanta. They’ve got the better pitching lineup up for those games. Washington should also be able to take one of the first two games. After all, Roark pitched well against Atlanta early in the season. One of Folty or Newcomb, however, could hurl an impressive outing to grab a game.
In the end, bank on the Nationals taking the series on the road and ascending back to the top of the NL East where they ultimately belong.
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