Ever the disappointment for the Washington Nationals, it was the Chicago Cubs who knocked them out of the 2017 postseason. The Nationals are again a disappointment to this point this year as they’re fighting to even get to October baseball. This will be the first series between these two teams since last post season and the two squads will square off on national television in the series finale on Sunday.
First pitch of the game between the Nationals and Cubs is scheduled for Sunday, August 12, 2018, at 8:05 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. The matchup will be televised nationally on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Cubs were 6-7 out of the break in the second half before getting a couple easier series this month against the Royals and Padres are back 5-3 since the start of August.
It hasn’t been great since the break for the Cubbies, but they’re in the lead in the NL Central and just need to hold ground. There’s more urgency for the Nationals who are six back of the Phillies in the NL East and continue to lounge around the .500 mark.
Washington started to play a bit better after the All-Star break, but after taking six of seven lost back-to-back games to the Braves to lose some of their momentum.
In general, Washington has seemed a bit dysfunctional all season. To address that, the team’s shipped out Brandon Kintzler and Shawn Kelly with rumors that both moves had as much to do with the clubhouse as anything else. We’ll see if that pans out, but in removing those players, the Nationals weaken the pen.
Overall, the National’s pen hasn’t been the problem. The team has a 3.64 ERA in the pen and ranks well against most teams. Even the Cubs who have the second best bullpen ERA in the NL are only a little ahead at 3.38.
Interestingly, both Washington and Chicago are without their closers with Sean Doolittle and Brandon Morrow both on the DL. The Cubs are a bit better off in this scenario with the arms they have, but Washington just added Greg Holland who has surprisingly looked very good in his first two innings of work with four strikeouts, one walk and no hits allowed.
If Holland can return to form with the change of scenery, he could be a massive difference maker. He’s crucial already with Doolittle and now Kelvin Herrera out.
Probable Pitchers
It’s an interesting pitching matchup on tap for the national audience on Sunday with newly acquired Cole Hamels making his first start at Wrigley Field as a Cub. In order to get a win in that debut, Hamels will have to outduel the Nationals’ ace in Max Scherzer.
A few years ago, this would have been a battle of the aces, but unfortunately Cole Hamels no longer fits in that category. After a lackluster season in Texas where his peripherals looked more than a bit concerning, the southpaw has had a nice start to his Cubs’ career, going 2-0 while allowing only one run over 11 innings in his first two starts.
Even with the solid start in Chicago, Hamels isn’t the ace he was earlier in his career. The Nationals are banking on that as the veteran southpaw is 16-9 with a 2.67 ERA against Washington in his career. Of course, he hasn’t faced the Nats since 2015.
This year, combined between Chicago and Texas, the 34-year old is 7-9 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.356 WHIP. His FIP is 4.95 driven by a staggering 23 home runs in 125.1 innings. All of those homers came as a Ranger.
On the other side of this matchup, Scherzer is 34-years old himself, but he’s still very much in his prime. The right-hander won the NL Cy Young Award each of the last two years and will be in the conversation against this year as he’s 15-5 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.897 WHIP. He leads the league in many categories including wins, WHIP and strikeouts with 216 in his 161.2 innings of work.
While home runs have been the Achilles Heel for Scherzer in the past, the righty has lowered the number of homers he’s allowed this year despite it being another big year for the long ball.
The model of consistency, even in a season when the Nationals aren’t living up to expectations, Scherzer on the mound is as close to a sure-fire win as you can get.
In his 24 starts, Scherzer has allowed more than two runs in a game only three times. Washington is 17-7 when he takes the ball and are 5-1 in his last six starts. The one lose came in his last start against the Braves. He allowed just one run in seven innings in that game, but the offense couldn’t do enough nor could the bullpen hold it behind him.
In his career against the Cubs, Scherzer has made just six starts and is 3-1 with a 2.92 ERA.
Live Betting
Breakings down the matchups with these veteran starters, we see some interesting head-to-head numbers.
Daniel Murphy has found success in his career against Hamels. Murphy is 17-for-52 against him with a homer and six RBIs. Ryan Zimmerman, meanwhile, has a .262 average in 84 at bats along with three long balls. Mark Reynolds has hit two out against him in 21 at bats.
In Chicago nobody has great career numbers against Scherzer though Ben Zobrist has three homers against him out of his five hits in 25 at bats. Addison Russell, Anthony Rizzo and Tommy La Stella have all taken him deep in limited sample sizes though Javier Baez, their MVP candidate on the year is 0-for-5 with three punch outs.
Overall, these numbers don’t point to a high scoring affair even with these line ups.
Chicago is the better hitting team this year. They’ve scored the most runs in the NL and have a .768 OPS to the Nationals’ .742, thanks largely to a league leading .266 average and superior OBP. In the power department, these two teams are closer as Washington has actually out-homered the Cubs.
The Washington offense right now is better than it’s been most of the year. Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy and Adam Eaton are all active. Juan Soto is putting up historically great numbers for a teenager while the last big name teen for the Nationals, Bryce Harper, is finally starting to swing the bat better.
Still, Chicago has the better overall offense, but Kris Bryant is still out, Ben Zobrist is dealing with hip issues and others like Ian Happ, Albert Almora and Addison Russell have slumped since the All-Star break.
MLB Pick
With Scherzer on the mound, it’s hard to bet against the Nationals. Even in their rocky season, they’ve managed to win the vast majority of his starts and for good reason.
Look for the Nationals’ ace to go seven strong innings and keep the Cubs contained to a couple runs. From there, the bullpen only needs to cover a couple innings and there are certainly enough quality arms for that.
Meanwhile on offense, the Nationals really don’t have to do too much. They’ll get to Hamels for a few runs. The lefty has been good as a Cub, but was mediocre for too long in Texas to believe his run of dominance can continue.
Count on a big homer or two from the Nationals to carry them to the win at Wrigley Field in this primetime Sunday night showdown.
MLB Odds: Nationals 4, Cubs 3
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