Both the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers have playoff aspirations this season, but only one has gotten off to a strong start through the first month with the Nationals lounging below-.500. These two teams will kick off a four-game weekend series in L.A. on Thursday night with the Nationals trying to get back on track with a big win and the Dodgers looking to maintain their solid lead in the NL West.
First pitch for the game between the Nationals and Dodgers is scheduled for Thursday, May 9, 2019, at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium. The matchup will be shown on MLB Network.
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Odds Analysis
The Dodgers have scored the most runs of any team in the NL. They’ve been able to hit for average a .257 with a .801 OPS and some solid on-base and power production.
L.A. can score many different ways and seemingly holds a nice edge there over a Nationals team scoring 32 fewer runs and sporting an OPS more than 50-points lower than the Dodgers’ OPS.
Washington may also be playing without its three best players. Trea Turner got injured early in the early has recently been joined by Anthony Rendon on and Juan Soto on the IL.
Those mediocre team numbers have come with Rendon hitting .356 with a 201 OPS+ in 20 games and with six home runs and team high 22 RBIs from Soto. Soto won’t be eligible for Thursday. Rendon may be back.
Either way, the Nationals’s offense is still limited. Even with Rendon, the team doesn’t have protection for him. Victor Robles has cooled after a good start. Adam Eaton is getting on base, but offers little else.
Howie Kendrick and Kurt Suzuki are likely the team’s best hitters at the moment aside form Rendon and company.
As for the Dodgers, they’ve got a bunch more depth on their roster. They also have Cody Bellinger.
Bellinger is having a break out season. He’s got a .412/.486/.840 slash line with 14 home runs and 38 RBIs. He’s been a huge force, but he’s not alone Joc Pederson has 10 home runs, Max Muncy has 24 RBI and a .835 OPS. Even Alex Verdugo, David Freese, and Enrique Hernandez have been huge pieces.
Probable Pitchers
A pair of southpaws are slated to take the hill in this series opener with the Dodgers turning to Rich Hill for his third start of the year and the Nationals giving the ball to Patrick Corbin.
Corbin has pitched well in his first season in D.C. In his seven starts, he’s 2-1 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.122 WHIP in 43.2 innings of work. He’s going more than six innings a start and striking out 3.85 per walk. His FIP sits at 3.60 and he has an ERA+ of 119. He’s been a very good pitcher.
Of his seven starts, only one fell short of qualifying as a quality start when he allowed six runs in five innings to the Cardinals. He bounce back from that last time out, holding the Phillies to three runs in six innings.
Over his career, Corbin has gotten plenty of experience against the Dodgers. He’s pitched against them in 20 games, including 18 starts, and is just 4-9, but has a very respectable 3.59 ERA in 102.2 innings. He has allowed a few too many walks and hits, however.
On the other side of this matchup, Hill comes into play having not gotten a decision in his first two starts. He’s pitched 10 innings this year with 12 hits and one walk around, allowing eight runs with only four of them being earned.
The 39-year old southpaw went six innings and allowed five runs in his debut, but only one was earned. He went just four innings last time with three runs and seven hits allowed against the Padres, including two home runs.
We will see if Hill can rebound from that. His age suggests a likely regression, particularly with the injuries, but he had an 11-5 record and 3.66 ERA last year.
In his career against the Nationals, he’s 2-1 with a 3.80 ERA in six games, hardly a huge sample size.
The veteran lefty has a good idea how to pitch and does well with his curve ball leading the way. Whether he can bounce back from a rough showing last time out or not, we can expect Hill not to go too deep in the game.
Live Betting
Joe Kelly was brought in to stabilize the bridge to Kenley Jansen in the ninth inning for the Dodgers, but Kelly has had a rough season. He’s been relegated mainly to a mop up role in low leverage innings and continues to struggle.
Compared to the Nationals’ bullpen, however, Kelly’s struggles are minor. The rest of the Dodgers pen is pitching well. Jansen has allowed a few more runs—and homers—than you’d like to see, but still has 12 saves.
Meanwhile, Dylan Floro has yet to allow a run in 15 innings, Scott Alexander has done well against lefties, and Pedro Baez has allowed just 11 hits and three walks in 18 innings of work.
Dave Roberts has a few options at his disposal to get through the last several innings. Dave Martinez isn’t as lucky.
Washington has an excellent closer in Sean Doolittle with a 1.15 ERA in 15.2 innings. Kyle Barraclough has allowed just three runs—two earned—in his 12.2 innings setting him up. The problem, however, is getting to those two. The rest of the pen is terrible with an MLB worst 6.43 ERA. Basically every other arm the team has tried has failed.
MLB Pick
The matchup of the starting pitchers favors the Nationals who are likely to get more innings, but they need more innings given the weakness in the bullpen. L.A. has enough quality arms throwing well enough to cover the final four frames.
Look for five solid innings from Hill and the bullpen to hold the lead while Corbin is likely to get another quality start, but the Washington bullpen will struggle to hold a powerful Dodgers’ offense in check form there. On offense, it’s hard to see the Nationals’ offense scoring enough to keep pace with L.A.
Count on the Dodgers to add on against the Nationals’ bullpen and get the win against a depleted Nationals roster.
Take the Dodgers at home to get the win at BookMaker.eu.
MLB Odds: Dodgers 7, National 5
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