Preseason, many saw this Washington Nationals versus Los Angeles Dodgers matchup as a possible early postseason preview. That, of course, could still be the case, but both the Nationals and the Dodgers need to play better baseball to get to October atop their respective divisions. The defending National League champion Dodgers have come out of the gate flat while the Nationals have struggled through some injuries in the cold, unable to capture any momentum either.
First pitch of this three-game series between the Nationals and Dodgers is scheduled for Friday, April 20, 2018, at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium. The next two games of the series will start at 9:10 p.m. ET and 8:05 p.m. ET respectively. The final two games of the series will be televised nationally with Saturday’s game on MLB Network and Sunday’s on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball.
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Odds Analysis
Injuries to Adam Eaton and now Brian Goodwin have opened up opportunities for Moises Sierra and Andrew Stevenson in the outfield, especially with Howie Kendrick starting at second while Daniel Murphy’s been out.
The Nationals’ offense is missing a couple key guys in Eaton and Murphy, but the bats have covered for their losses as well as the early season swoons of Ryan Zimmerman—who is hitting just .121—and Michael A. Taylor who has a .250 OBP in the early going.
Bryce Harper alone has provided as much offense as some teams with a .304/.482/.750 slash line propelled by eight home runs. He’s driven in 18 and has two steals. Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner have been okay so far, too, while Kendrick and Pedro Severino—who is getting most of the starts behind the plate over Matt Wieters—are both hitting well. Kendrick is batting .300 with a pair of homers while Severino is batting .313 with a .436 OBP.
Injuries have cut into the Dodgers’ lineup, too, who now have Kyle Farmer playing third with both Justin Turner and Logan Forsythe injured.
The offense needs to be better. This is an area the Nationals have an advantage. Cody Bellinger and Yasmani Grandal are hitting well as are Chase Utley and Matt Kemp, but Chris Tayler, Yasiel Puig and Corey Seager all need to provide a bit more of a spark.
On the young season, Washington has scored nine more runs and has a .733 OPS compared to the Dodgers’ .678 despite having team batting averages nearly identical to each other.
Probable Pitchers
Washington gets the advantage in Game 1 of the series as Max Scherzer takes the hill opposite Rich Hill.
The 38-year old Hill has experienced a bit of a Renaissance over the last couple seasons and has pitched brilliantly in that span, but the southpaw has shown some signs of age in his first three starts of 2018. He’s already allowed 10 runs and 17 hits in his first three games, averaging just five innings a start.
Hill isn’t one to go deep in games as Dave Roberts doesn’t like to let him go much more than two times through an order, but since returning to the Majors in 2015, he’s leaned on his curveball to at least dominant in the innings he does throw. That hasn’t been the case in 2018.
While his 6.00 ERA in 15 frames is a concern enough, it’s too early to put much weight in a ball ERA. What’s more troubling, however is his seven walks and three homers allowed. He gave up just 22 long balls in his previous two seasons combined and is averaging nearly a walk every other innings. The Nationals have the bats to make him pay if he doesn’t show better command on Friday.
As for Scherzer, he’s off to a strong start as he makes the case for his third straight Cy Young Award. He’s already amassed 1.2 rWAR in just four starts, going 3-1 with a 1.33 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in 27 innings. He’s got a shutout and 38 strikeouts so far.
The right-hander has also walked just four batters, giving him an impressive 9.5 strikeout to walk ratio and has allowed just 14 hits.
While all of these numbers are mindboggling, they can’t be chalked up to a small sample size as he has produced a sub-3 ERA each of the last three seasons and in four of the last five. He’s got a career .655 winning percentage, 3.27 ERA and 1.113 WHIP.
All that said, he is only 3-4 in 11 career starts against the Dodgers, though he has pitched to a 2.92 ERA in those starts.
Even though Scherzer gets the series opener on Friday, the best pitching matchup of this series comes in Game 2 on Saturday with Stephen Strasburg going toe-to-toe with Clayton Kershaw.
Strasburg is the other ace in Washington. He’s also off to a strong start going 2-1 with a 3.08 ERA in four starts, spanning 26.1 innings. He’s done well controlling walks and is averaging a strikeout an inning. On the downside, however, he’s already allowed four home runs after giving up just 13 all of last year.
The home run ball is the only concern for Strasburg right now. When he’s healthy, he’s one of the best arms in the game and finished the 2017 third in Cy Young Award voting after a historic second half where he went 6-1 with a 0.86 ERA in 10 starts.
Health can be a concern for Kershaw as well, but the ace southpaw is healthy right now. He’s concern at the moment is the health of the offense supporting him. He’s 1-2 in four starts despite a 1.73 ERA. He’s pitching like Kershaw, but not getting the results.
The three type Cy Young Award winner and seven time top-5 finisher boasts a career .687 winning percentage and 2.35 ERA, ranking him as—arguably—the best regular season arm of the generation.
Against nearly anyone, Kershaw has the edge, but Strasburg makes it close as the two finished second and third in the 2017 Cy Young Award voting despite each missing some time.
After the elite pitching on tap for the first two games, the third game of the series is a bit of a letdown by comparison with Hyun-Jin Ryu and Jeremy Hellickson on schedule for the primetime showdown.
Ryu has had a good start to the year. He’s made three starts with ajust five runs allowed and a 2-0 record. He’s been limited to 15.2 innings, so isn’t likely to go more than five of six innings, but has kept the Dodgers in the game in his starts.
Hellickson, on the other side, has only one big league start in 2018 after replacing A.J. Cole in the fifth spot in the order.
The 31-year old veteran is only a year removed from a 3.71 ERA and 12-10 record in 32 starts back in 2016. That earned him a qualifying offer. Now, a little more than a year later, he needs to reprove himself after combining to go 8-11 with a 5.43 ERA with the Phillies and Orioles last year.
Hellickson is a guy who pitches to contact so he needs the defense to help him out. He also needs to keep the ball in the yard after giving up 35 homers last year.
His first start of the year was okay, but could’ve been better. The Nationals ultimately won the game, but Hellickson threw 88 pitches without making it out of the fifth though he did limit the damage to just two runs against the Mets.
He’s got a 6.88 ERA in four career starts against the Dodgers.
Live Betting
The bullpen was a strength of the Dodgers last year. They put together the NL’s best bullpen ERA and much of that was built around Kenley Jansen in the ninth innings.
Los Angeles always has trouble finding the right set up man for Jansen, but Roberts typically makes it work.
So far in 2018, the pen has been an issue because Jansen has struggled. The All-Star closer’s velocity is down nearly five miles an hour on his cutter and he’s been exceptionally hittable, allowing three homers and eight hits in 6.2 innings. He does have a couple saves, but has blown a couple chances as well.
Scott Alexander and Wilmer Font have also struggled mightily, skyrocketing the pen’s early ERA.
On the positive side, however, Ross Stripling, Josh Fields and Pedro Baez are all throwing well, helping to minimize the impact of Jansen’s struggles, but the Dodgers need Jansen to be a lockdown guy in the ninth to beat the better teams in the league.
On the other side, the Nationals have seen Brandon Kintzler struggle in the setup role. He’s already 0-2. The ninth inning has been better in Washington than Los Angeles, but Sean Dolittle hasn’t been lights out, yet. He’s already gotten a loss and has given up two homers in his nine innings. On the bright side, however, he’s struck out 18.
MLB Pick
It’s early, but this is a crucial series for both the Dodgers and the Nationals, both off to slow starts and receiving strong competition in the early going in their respective divisions.
Two of the early favorites to win the NL, Los Angeles and Washington are still two of the better teams in the league, at least on paper, but neither are playing their best baseball right now. They’re both dealing with key offensive injuries and some troubling performances out of the pen.
Overall, the starting pitching along with Kenley Jansen’s early season woes give the edge to a Nationals’ team that has been far better on the road than at home so far in 2018.
Don’t count on either team sweeping the three game set, but look for the Nationals to steal two of three on the road.
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