As the losses begin to mount for the Washington Nationals, they continue a tough week out of the gate in the second half against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers will host Washington for a best of three with the pivotal middle game slated for Tuesday and set to be broadcast nationally. In this middle game of three, the Nationals will turn to No.5 starter Jeremy Hellickson while the Brew Crew are expected to active Junior Guerra off the DL to toe the rubber.
First pitch for the game between the Nationals and Brewers is scheduled for Tuesday, July 24, 2018, at 8:08 p.m. ET at Miller Park. The matchup will be shown on MLB Network.
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Odds Analysis
The Nationals were supposed to run away with the NL East with ease, but the Braves and Phillies have been better than expected while the Nationals have been so much worse.
Washington has been a bit better on the road so playing in Milwaukee over Washington, D.C. may be a benefit to the Nationals rather than a detriment, but there’s no denying the Nats have struggles, particularly since May 31, going 15-27 in 42 games going into Sunday.
While the Brewers have slumped lately, too, it’s been much shorter lived as they’re 1-8 in their last nine games, but still 11-games over-.500. Of course, the Brewers are only 20-24 since the start of June. They haven’t really been playing their best ball for a while now either. With both teams slumping, something must give.
Offensively, these two teams are similarly ranked based both on runs scored and OPS. The Brewers have had a bit more pop and have shown the ability to put up a ton or runs from time-to-time but are more prone to the shutout. Meanwhile, the Nationals have the better OBP, but are still seeing their team leader—Bryce Harper—hitting .215.
The Nationals haven’t gotten what they expected from Harper or several other players, but the team is finally getting healthy. Ryan Zimmerman was just reinstated. We’ll see how the team produces now that most of the lineup is back. So far, it hasn’t really been great.
For Milwaukee, the whole has been in the middle of the infield. They’re trying to address that at the non-waiver trade deadline and any enhancement here helps this matchup. For now, however, the Brewers have a great top of the order with Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich, Jesus Aguilar and Travis Shaw but they need more depth to allow the team better consistency.
Probable Pitchers
Jeremy Hellickson has been a nice surprise in the No.5 spot in the rotation when healthy after a disappointing season a year ago.
The veteran right-hander was signed to a minor league deal that’s really paid dividends for a struggling Nationals’ team that’s had little else go right. He’s looked good since coming off the DL, too, tossing two good games, tallying 11 total innings and just a single run allowed.
Hellickson gets the ball again on Tuesday for a team in desperate need of a spark. He can be a solid pitcher but is unlikely to be that spark.
Even so, Washington needs him to keep the team in the game to allow someone else to create that spark.
The righty is 4-1 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.048 WHIP in 13 starts this year spanning 63 innings. He’s keeping the ball in the zone as shown by a 1.7 walk per nine innings ratio.
The veteran right-hander has only had one bad start this year and pulling out the nine runs in four innings against the Marlins would otherwise have a 2.29 ERA.
Of course, we cannot pick and choose the data set to include in statistics, but it’s still important to show how consistent the right-hander has been—when healthy—for the Nationals this year.
As for the Brewers’ counter to Hellickson, Junior Guerra has been—perhaps—the closest thing to an ace in this rotation of No.3 starters.
Guerra is 6-6 with a 3.23 ERA in his 18 starts. He’s coming off the DL where he was dealing with a forearm injury to make the start.
His health is probably the biggest question for the 33-year old right-hander. Forearm issues can sometimes be precursors and symptoms of more significant issues in the elbow. The doctors, however, have cleared him so that’s all we can rely on.
While rust and the injury are factors to consider in this matchup, Guerra is coming off the DL at home where he’s thrived in 2018. He’s made 11 of his 18 starts at home where he’s got a 2.55 ERA and where he’s striking out two more batters per nine innings compared to on the road.
Guerra hasn’t faced the Nationals this season, but he’s made two appearances—one start—against them in his career, pitching 8.1 innings and allowing just two combined runs on three hits and three walks while striking out nine.
As for his more recent production, he didn’t look good in his last start, going four innings and allowing six runs on nine hits. Prior to that, his ERA was 2.79 as he hadn’t allowed more than five runs in any start and had limited the opposition to three runs or less in all but one of his previous 11 starts.
Live Betting
These are two struggling teams right now and both have plenty of question marks as they look to improve via trades to stay in their respective races.
While each team has their share of questions on offense, the bullpen situation is one with a team in a clearly better position: the Brewers.
While Josh Hader has been the subject of much conversation based on some despicable tweets from his past, he’s been an elite reliever this year with a 1.44 ERA and 0.780 WHIP. He’s striking out nearly two thirds of those he faces and shutting down offenses at key moments in the game.
Along with Hader, the team has Corey Knebel closing out games and Jeremy Jeffress as a key set up option.
This bullpen is deep with arms and can effectively make any game a five-inning affair. The amount of innings are piling up for the Brewers, but that’ll be a bigger concern in September. For now, this is still an elite bullpen.
The Nationals already made a move to help improve their bullpen this year in adding Kelvin Herrera, but now Washington’s All-Star closer in Sean Doolittle is on the DL, moving Herrera in the closer’s role and leaving the middle innings less secure.
Shawn Kelly is pitching well in a setup role and there have been some others contributing, but Ryan Madson isn’t the pitcher he was a couple years ago and Brandon Kintzler has been anything but dominant. The Nationals bullpen doesn’t have nearly the swing and miss of that Brewers’ pen. It’s also giving up a third of a run more based on ERA.
MLB Pick
The Brewers struggled going into the break and weren’t exactly dominant in their series against the Dodgers over the weekend, but the Nationals are struggling just as badly and have been amid their struggles for longer.
Look for the Nationals bats to come up short against Guerra as the righty does enough through five to keep the Brewers in the game before turning the ball over to the stacked Milwaukee bullpen.
While Hader’s twitter history may be a distraction for this team down the road, he got a good welcome at home so don’t look for that to be an issue again until the team goes on the road.
Count on the Brewers to score a few runs against Hellickson and exploit a weakness in the middle of the Washington bullpen. Look for the Brew Crew to add on in the middle innings enough to get the win as the Nationals continue to flounder as continue to feel the wait of their preseason expectations as they continually underdeliver on them.
MLB Odds: Brewers 5, Nationals 4
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