The Washington Nationals head to Citi Field on Thursday for the first of four against the division rival New York Mets. While the Mets were supposed to be the Nationals’ biggest competition for the division, the two teams have turned into the biggest disappointments so far as Washington desperately tries to stay in the mix as New York continues to fade into the bottom of the NL standings. Now, the Nationals, behind Max Scherzer, will try to take advantage of their matchup against the Mets even with a solid hurler like Steven Matz on the other side.
First pitch for the game between the Nationals and Mets is scheduled for Thursday, July 12, 2018, at 7:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field. The matchup will be televised locally.
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Odds Analysis
It’s been a tough season for Washington who sit around .500. They’ve gone 8-19 in their last 27 games. While they looked to be getting right against the Marlins over the weekend, they’ve since lost back-to-back games and are still showing offensive inconsistencies.
The Nationals have scored at least 14 runs in a game three times in the last two weeks and twice in the last week, but have nonetheless, score three or fewer in 10 of their last 14 games, including being shut out three times.
Washington is in the middle of the pack in runs scored, but some of that is driven by their occasional outbursts. Still, compared to the Mets, the National offense is strong.
New York has scored the fewest runs in the NL and have a .686 team OPS. The Mets are in a bit of a free fall like Washington, but doesn’t have the roster to pull itself out. The Nationals have the talent, they just need to play better.
For the Mets, Michael Conforto has been a disappointment with a .707 OPS while Yoenis Cespedes, Todd Frazier, and Jay Bruce are all on the shelf. Asdrubal Cabrera is a serviceable hitter, but not somone that should be leading the team in most offensive categories. Meanwhile, Brandon Nimmo came into the season as a role player. He’s playing great, but a team needs more than one dependable hitter. Right now, Nimmo, Wilmer Flores and Jose Bautista—yes, that Jose Bautista—are carrying this offense.
In Washington, Bryce Harper is only hitting .218 and has been slumping, but he’s still Bryce Harper, a 25-year old former MVP. Meanwhile, Juan Soto’s been great, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Matt Adam, Mark Reynolds, Adam Eaton, Daniel Murphy and Matt Wieters are all legitimate Major Leaguers.
The production hasn’t been consistent, but the names are much better in Washington than in New York.
Probable Pitchers
In what will be his final start before the All-Star break, Scherzer will get a chance to get to a dozen first half wins in the game, bringing a 11-5 record into Thursday.
The Cy Young contender also has a 2.33 ERA and 0.893 WHIP in his 19 games and 127.2 innings of work. He’s already amassed 5.1 WAR and leads the league in WHIP, strikeout rate, strikeouts and innings pitched. He’s a workhorse, but he does more than give the Nationals innings, he dominates until late in games.
The veteran right-hander has already struck out 177 batters and has 5.53 strikeouts to every walk allowed.
While Scherzer is a threat to hurl a shutout every time out, his two starts in July haven’t quite been as dominant as usual. Even so, he’s still only allowed seven runs in 13 innings, but that’s a major disappointment for Scherzer. He’s also just 1-4 in his last five decisions, spanning six starts. In that time, he’s limited the opposition to two runs or fewer in four starts and has five quality starts.
In total, however, the Nationals are still 13-6 when he takes the ball. Scherzer has also put up stellar career numbers against the Mets. He’s yet to face them this year, but is 8-4 lifetime with a 2.23 ERA. He’s 6-2 with a 1.76 ERA in nine career starts at Citi Field.
Trying to match the three time Cy Young Award winner pitch for pitch in this contest will be the Mets’ young southpaw, Steven Matz.
Matz is a talented young arm and coming into the year, the biggest question about him was health. The 27-year old southpaw couldn’t seem to stay on the field.
When healthy, he’s been pretty good and he’s thrown well this year, too. He’s just 4-6, but has a 3.31 ERA though his FIP is 4.64 as he’s seemingly been lucky with a suppressed BABIP. He his walking 3.5 per nine innings and has a strikeout to walk ratio lower than half of Scherzer’s at 2.31.
Unlike Scherzer, Matz is also not one to go deep in games. He’s thrown only 89.2 innings in his 17 starts though he has made it through six innings in five of his last seven starts. In two starts against the Nationals earlier this year, however, he combined for only nine innings though he did only allow three earned runs—four total—in those games.
Lately, however, Matz has looked very strong. He’s pitched 11.2 innings in his last two starts and has lonely allowed two runs—one earned—on eight hits.
Live Betting
With Scherzer pitching, the Nationals can count on six or seven solid innings and should expect a lead coming the late innings.
With that, Brandon Kintzler, Kelvin Herrera and Sean Doolittle are three closers able to close out their respective innings. The Mets will be hard pressed against any of them and aren’t likely to get a chance against the soft underbelly of the Nationals’ middle inning relievers.
Washington, meanwhile, should see the middle relievers as Matz doesn’t provide the same innings. Plus, there’s not a whole lot to rely on outside of Jeurys Familia in the ninth.
In terms of head-to-head competition, not many Mets have found success against Scherzer. Bautista is 9-for-20 with four doubles and a homer, but much of that came in his younger years. The same goes for Jose Reyes’ 10-for-29. After all, Reyes isn’t hitting anyone this year, much less an ace, given his .168 average.
As for the Nationals against Matz, the sample sizes are smaller, but Reynolds is 4-for-8 with three doubles. Otherwise, the rest of the Nats lineup is a combined 19-for-105 against him.
MLB Pick
The Nationals haven’t been playing great baseball lately and are barely staying afloat in the NL East. Still, they’re well ahead of the Mets in the standings and are still one of the best teams in baseball with Scherzer on the mound.
Look for Mad Max to silence the Mets already questionable offense and give his offense a chance to mount a sizeable lead. From there, the pen with Herrera and Dolittle should be more than enough to close out a victory in the series opener.
Don’t look for Washington’s offense to blow up like it did a couple times over the weekend, but the offense is starting to come together again and should at least score enough against Matz—and the more so the relievers behind him—to give Scherzer enough wiggle room to work with to secure his 12th win.
MLB Odds: Nationals 5, Mets 2
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