A couple of the game’s best teams collide on Wednesday in the finale of a short two-game series between the Washington Nationals and New York Yankees. The Bronx Bombers will host the Nats in this possible World Series preview, entering the series with the best record in baseball. In hopes of continuing their success, the Yankees will send a surging Sonny Gray to the mound against a Nationals team that’ll be scrambling for a starter thanks to injuries to Stephen Strasburg and Jeremy Hellickson.
First pitch for the game between the Nationals at Yankees is scheduled for, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Yankees are second in baseball in runs scored, three runs behind the Red Sox, but New York has played in four fewer games.
No team in baseball has hit more home runs than the 103 hit by the Yankees or posted a higher OPS than their .790.
This lineup has power top-to-bottom, quality averages and even a bit of speed. It’s as balanced a lineup as there is in the game.
Even with Gary Sanchez hitting .190 on the season, they’re still getting power out of the catcher’s position and they have Austin Romine providing better defense and hitting .344 in limited playing time. With Sanchez’s struggles and Romine’s superior defense, the latter is stealing some playing time from the starter while he figures it out.
First base is also a bit of a question right now. Greg Bird has been slow to come around and Tyler Austin has been okay.
Outside of those two positions, the rest of the lineup is well above average. Didi Gregorius is starting to come around a bit after a major slump, but the bigger stories are Gleybar Torres and Miguel Andujar. The rookie infielders are mashing with both hitting .297 or better and both posting at least a .891 OPS.
Oh, did we mention Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, yet? The two have 33 combined homers and 79 combined RBIs.
The Nationals offense, by comparison, has been just okay. They’ve got a .715 team OPS and .236 team average. They’re in the middle of the pack in runs scored despite constant injuries.
Washington definitely misses Daniel Murphy, but Adam Eaton is finally back and both Juan Soto and Mark Reynolds have made major splashes since their promotions. Both Reynolds and Matt Adams can start this game without Adams having to clog up an outfield spot since they’re playing in an AL ballpark. One should DH while Soto, Eaton and Bryce Harper could make up the outfield.
In total, there’s a lot of under achieving in this offense. Harper’s hit 19 home runs and has 43 RBIs, but he’s batting .228. He’s been pitched around a lot and has expanded his strike zone at times trying to get a pitch to hit.
Still, Harper’s an elite talent and he has some quality players around him. Anthony Rendon is hitting well, but Trea Turner, Michael Taylor and Wilmer Difo are all hitting below league average based on OPS+. The catcher position is also providing little-to-no offense.
The Nationals can score, but this isn’t near as deep an offense as the Yankees.
Probable Pitchers
Sonny Gray has already been announced as the start for the Yankees, but the Nationals remain uncommitted for the game since both Strasburg and Hellickson are on the shelf and it would mean short rest for the rest of the rotation.
Neither Strasburg nor Hellickson are likely to be out for an extended period of time, but the Nationals will still need a starter for Wednesday and that Erick Fedde who made a spot start earlier this year.
Gray hasn’t had the season most Yankee fans were hoping for, but the right-hander has looked better recently. In his last start, he tossed eight-scoreless against the Blue Jays, giving up only two hits.
The young right-hander still has a ton of talent and isn’t that far removed from pitching like an ace in Oakland. Since coming to the Big Apple, he’s joined a pitching staff that’s more about the breaking ball. Gray, however, needs to pitch off the fastball and has done a better job of that over his last few outings.
Overall, Gray is 4-4 with a 4.81 ERA and 1.461 WHIP. He’s allowing too many free passes and has a underwhelming 1.93 strikeout to walk ratio.
Gray’s walks are dropping and strikeouts spiking now that he’s going to a few more fastballs. He’s allowed one runs, walked two and struck out 14 all while holding the opposition to six hits in 14 innings over his last two games. Granted, those two games were against the Orioles and Blue Jays, but it’s still progress. Besides, Gray has now allowed one run or fewer in three of his last four starts and has four quality starts in his last six outings.
For Fedde, should he get the start, this will be his fifth career Major League start and appearance. He’s 0-2 with an 8.14 ERA in his first four starts. Earlier this year, he went 5.2 innings against the Padres, allowing three runs on six hits and taking the loss.
Going into last year, Fedde was a top-100 prospect according to Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. His stock has fallen since then. He pitched to a respectable 3.69 ERA spread between Double-A and Triple-A last year. In 11 starts for Triple-A Syracuse, he’s 3-2 with a 4.76 ERA in 56.2 innings. He’s posting a 1.482 WHIP thanks to an elevated BABIP against him.
Live Betting
The Yankees’ bats should handle Fedde rather easily and force their way into the bullpen early. The bullpen for the Nationals is a bit exposed with Brandon Kintzler on the disabled list. Sean Dolittle has had an All-Star start to the season with a 1.57 ERA and 16 saves in the closer’s role, but Ryan Madson has been inconsistent setting him up. Matt Grace, Shawn Kelley and others have been just as inconsistent.
Aside from Dolittle, Sammy Solis has been the next most reliable arm in the Nationals’ pen and he’s a one-batter matchup pitcher. Dave Martinez has one shot with him against a lefty in a key late game matchup, but the Yankees do most of their damage from the right side of the plate.
The Yankees certainly have the advantage in the bullpen. Dellin Betances has been pitching much better lately, getting his command under control. Then, of course, there’s Aroldis Chapman and Chad Green in the later innings to lock down a game.
The former National, A.J. Cole, has been great since joining the Yankees, too. Cole started the year as the Nationals’ fifth start and failed in that role. Since joining New York, he’s pitched exclusively in reliever and in six games has a 0.82 ERA as a multi-inning reliever. He’s not a high leverage arm, but could pitch a couple frames on Wednesday if New York grabs an early lead.
MLB Pick
This is a highly anticipated game, but the pitching matchup isn’t quite that of a likely World Series preview should these two teams make it to the Fall Classic.
Gray, however, is pitching better lately and that cannot be ignored. He has the upper hand compared to the rookie, Fedde, who will be promoted to take on the best offense in baseball.
Fedde’s a talented arm, but Triple-A batters and the New York Yankee lineup don’t have too much in common.
Look for the Bronx Bombers to take advantage of the inexperienced Fedde, scoring a few and knocking the youngster out of the game in five innings. From there, the Washington bullpen will have to cover a few innings with the unit dealing with its own injuries, the Yankees should be able to add on.
Washington will score against Gray, but look for Gray to minimize the damage and get the win behind plenty of run support.
MLB Odds: Yankees 7, Nationals 4
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