The Washington Nationals and Pittsburgh Pirates feel like they’re in two different classes and, in fact, the Nationals are buyers while the Pirates are likely sellers. Nevertheless, as these two teams get set for the first in a three-game series on Monday, the two are rather close based on the record. The Pirates will host the Nationals on Monday looking to take advantage of the Nationals’ struggles while Washington hopes Pittsburgh can offer easier wins compared to their more recent opponents.
First pitch for the game between the Nationals and Pirates is scheduled for Mon, at 7:05 p.m. ET at PNC Park. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Nationals are in free fall. Here in July, they’re a game under-.500, but they have a light part in their schedule coming up and need to take advantage. That, of course, includes this game against the Pirates.
Washington has lost 15 of its last 19 games and five straight. They’re now third in the NL East with a lot of ground to make up to catch the Brave of Phillies. The roster is good enough, but the production right now is not.
The offense, for one, needs to be better. They’re No.12 in the NL in runs scored, ahead of only the Marlins, Padres and Mets. They have a team .317 OBP and .696 OPS.
Matt Adams is healthy again which is helpful. He’s been one of the Nationals’ best bats, but he’s one of only three batters with double-digit home runs with Antony Rendon and Bryce Harper being the other two.
Rendon’s having a good year, but Harper isn’t playing nearly as well as he should. He’s got 21 dingers and 50 RBIs, but he’s batting .215.
Juan Soto is the one carrying the offense right now. At 19-years old, he looks like a superstar. The team is losing even with him, but it’s hard to image where the team would be without his .971 OPS in his first 40 games.
Even with Daniel Murphy and Adam Eaton back, the Pirates still have more offensive depth right now than the Nationals.
Of course, despite the better offense, the worse pitching has prevented Pittsburgh for playing much better. The Pirates are 4-10 in their last 14 games.
Corey Dickerson has been slumping after a hot couple months, much like he did last year with the Rays, but Austin Meadows looks like the real deal and Elias Diaz has been swinging a hot bat with Francisco Cervelli on the DL.
Between Starling Marte, Colin Moran, Josh Bell and Gregory Polanco, the Pirates don’t have nearly as many household names as Washington, but Pittsburgh does have more players at least producing at around a league average level.
Probable Pitchers
With Stephen Strasburg still on the shelf, Erick Fedde will get another start provided he’s healthy himself. He left his last start after just an inning with inflammation in his shoulder so this outing is up in the air.
Fedde has had his struggles in the big leagues. He’s 1-3 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.643 WHIP in his 28 innings this year. He’s made six starts and his averaging fewer than five innings and outing.
The 25-year old right-hander was worse in three starts last year and has a 7.06 career ERA in nine big league starts.
If Fedde cannot go, the start could go to Jefry Rodriguez. He’s made a couple starts, but hasn’t been any better than Fedde with nine runs allowed in 13.2 innings at the Major League level. Both Fedde and Rodriguez have found minor league success. They just need to find a way for that to translate.
While the Nationals will send one of their young starters to the mound, the Pirates have their elder statesman lined up for the series opener with D.C.
Ivan Nova will get the start. The 31-year old right-hander is the old man of this staff and while he’s as reliable as anyone in a Pirates’ uniform, he doesn’t have the same upside.
This year, Nova is 4-6 with a 4.48 ERA and 1.256 WHIP. He’s pitched 92.1 innings and has a 4.18 strikeout to walk ratio. His command is better than his rotation mates, though he’s not as dominant. He only has 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings and relies on weak contact to get the job done.
Over his career, Nova has pitched to a 4.03 ERA as a Pirate and a 4.29 ERA overall. If nothing else, he’s consistent.
While he’s usually reliable enough to keep the Pirates in the game, he is coming off a rough start against the Dodgers where he allowed seven runs in five innings. He also struggled the last time he faced the Nationals.
In Washington, the Nats hung eight runs—five earned—on him in 4.2 innings. He allowed 11 hits in that game including a pair of home runs.
Live Betting
The Nationals have already gone out at made a big mid-season acquisition, adding Kelvin Herrera to the bullpen.
Herrera was arguably the best available reliever, but hasn’t been all that crisp since coming over to Washington. Herrera, along with Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Madson and Shawn Kelley, is one of the primary set up options to Sean Doolittle.
The names in the Nationals’ pen are good, but the age is an issue. Even Justin Miller who has been a pleasant surprise to the tune of a 5-1 record and 2.78 ERA is over 30. Can the older pen hold up?
Much like the Nationals, the Pirates’ bullpen has underperformed, too. The Pirates have Kyle Crick throwing well, but Felipe Vazquez hasn’t been as dominant as last year though he has kept the ball in the yard and has a 2.14 FIP showing he’s still been throwing well.
Richard Rodriguez, however, has regressed after a strong start and others are merely place holders for this rebuilding club.
MLB Pick
Look for a high scoring game, neither Fedde nor Nova are throwing the ball well right now. The same goes for Rodriguez.
Whoever the Nationals have going is a step down from the rest of the rotation and the Pirates should be able to take advantage, particularly with this game at home.
Look for Nova to have a better start on Monday than he did last time he faced the Nationals. He’ll get into the sixth with the lead and while the Pirates’ bullpen isn’t all that reliable, look for them to close out the win against a Nationals’ team that’s lost right now.
Washington is the better team on paper and the Pirates aren’t playing great ball, but veteran hurler has a better chance for a good outing in this one and that’s enough to swing the odds on Pittsburgh’s favor.
MLB Odds: Pirates 9, Nationals 7
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