The Washington Nationals and St. Louis Cardinals will close out a four-game series on Thursday as both desperately try to hang out to ever-shrinking postseason odds, both currently on the outside looking in. In an interesting pitching matchup for this contest, the Nationals will look to Tanner Roark who has come back from the brink of falling out of the rotation while the Cardinals give the ball to rookie right-hander Jake Flaherty.
First pitch of the game between the Nationals and Cardinals is scheduled for Thursday, August 16, 2018, at 7:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium. The matchup will be televised on MLB Network.
You can bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Odds Analysis
Since the non-waiver trade deadline when the Cardinals seemingly threw in the towel by trading away Tommy Pham, they’ve gone 9-2 and have gotten back to eight games over-.500 and are now just 2.5-games out of the Wild Card.
The Nationals were in a similar position to the Cards at the deadline, floating around .500 and struggling to live up to expectations. Washington right now is three-back of the Cardinals in the Wild Card hunt and 7-5 since the deadline.
Both teams are making some progress, but the Cardinals shook some things up to help improve and change the environment. They reshaped the bullpen, moved Jose Martinez off first-base for defensive reasons and slide Matt Carpenter over to first.
Those moves helped improve the defense, particularly in infield where Martinez was a terrible fielder at first and Carpenter was sub-par at third. Defense and pitching—including the bullpen—was what the Cards were all about when they were good and they’d gotten away from that. Getting back to the basics has certainly helped.
The firing of Mike Matheny and shift to Mike Shildt seemingly has helped, too. The team is 16-9 under its new manager. Of course, the new manager also got the benefit of a scorching hot Matt Carpenter.
The Cardinal hitter was batting .140 with a .558 OPS as of May 15 and losing playing time as a result. Since then, however, he’s been amazing. He’s now batting .277 with a league leading .980 OPS and 32 home runs, making him a candidate for the MVP award.
This month, Carpenter already has six homers in 11 games while Paul DeJong, Harrison Bader, Yadier Molina, Marcell Ozuna, Martinez and even Jedd Gyorko and Kolton Wong are all hitting well. Things are gelling offensively for the Cardinals now, too, along with the pitching and defense.
On the Nationals’ side of things, Ryan Zimmerman was named Player of the Week last week and is hot. He’s got a .400/.484/.880 slash line in August with three homers and 13 RBIs. Daniel Murphy is hitting .366 in 11 games and Bryce Harper is hitting .359 with three bombs of his own. Those numbers are all encouraging, but it’s not sunshine and roses across the board in the Nation’s Capital like it is in St. Louis. Juan Soto’s bat has slowed a hit as the league may be finally adapted to the 19-year old. Adam Eaton, Michael A. Taylor, Matt Adams and Mark Reynolds are all not hitting very well this calendar month.
Probable Pitchers
The Nationals were exploring some starting pitching options at the trade deadline which would have potentially pushed Tanner Roark to the bullpen once Stephen Strasburg was healthy. The team ultimately opted to mostly stand pat at the deadline and Roark retained his rotation spot. It’s a good thing, too.
After pitching rather poorly for an extended stretch, the 31-year old right-hander has been rather good over his last four starts. He’s gone at least seven innings in each of those starts and has allowed four total runs in 29.2 innings with just 23 hits, two walks and 27 strikeouts in that time.
Roark is 4-0 over his last four starts, but even with that, the Nationals are only 9-15 overall in his 24 appearances. In 144.1 innings of work, Roark has allowed a league leading 140 hits and league high 12 losses.
Overall, despite the losses and hits, his numbers aren’t too bad. He’s got a 4.12 ERA and 4.01 FIP. He’s got respectable, though not outstanding, rates in strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed, it just the hits that are high, though he’s been about a league average pitcher overall with a 103 ERA+. In the last four games, he’s been much better than league average.
On the Cardinals’ side of this pitching matchup, they’ll send the 22-year old right-hander who has had a very good rookie campaign so far. He’s 6-6 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.084 WHIP in 19 starts and 103.1 innings of work.
In his most recent start, he held the Royals to two runs in seven innings and prior to that threw six scoreless against the Pirates.
Despite the solid numbers, the Cardinals are only 8-11 when he starts. While that’s more a result of a lackluster bullpen and poor run support, it’s still a telling stat for the Cardinals’ chances with Flaherty starting.
Breaking down the numbers a bit further, Flaherty has been a strong strikeout pitcher with 127 and has done well avoiding hard contact with a low BABIP though his walk rate is a bit elevated.
The youngster came into the year as one of the top prospects in baseball and it’s easy to understand why. He’s thrown well against a number of different teams this year, but has yet to face the Nationals. That could be an advantage for the right-hander as hitters will have to adjust to his movement in real time.
Live Betting
The bullpen has been a real Achilles Heel for the Cardinals this season. After making clams they were prepared to head into the 2018 season with Luke Gregerson of all pitchers as the closer, they went out and signed Greg Holland as the regular season was getting underway.
The Holland signing was a failed one and neither he nor Gregerson ended up closing for this team. Instead, Bud Norris stepped up and has recorded 22 saves with a 2.85 ERA and Jordan Hicks came out of nowhere to be the primary setup man at 21-years old. Hicks has three saves of his own and a 2.98 ERA in 60.1 innings.
The young flamethrower, however, has had some issues with command and has just 49 strikeouts despite some of the games’ best velocity. Nevertheless, he’s been effective and has 12.1 innings and just one run allowed since the All-Star break.
The Cardinals have recently revamped the bullpen on the fly, including releasing Holland. Chasen Shreve was added to help against southpaws, Tyler Webb has been good in five appearances and Dakota Hudson and Daniel Poncedeleon were promoted, the later after a six-inning, no-hit performance as a fill-in starter.
While the Cardinal bullpen has settled down a bit lately, the Nationals’ bullpen has been an issue. Sean Doolittle and Kelvin Herrera are on the DL and Ryan Madson is the fill-in closer despite a 5.19 ERA.
In fact, there are so many issues right now in the Washington pen that they went out and added Holland after the Cardinals let him go. He’s thrown a few scoreless outings for the Nationals, but has walked the tight rope with a couple hits and a couple walks in just 2.1 innings.
MLB Pick
Roark is pitching very well right now, but how long can that continue? Four straight wins is a lot and four straight seven inning appearances, or more, is a lot, too. Can that continue?
Look for the right-handed veteran to be solid in his start, but he’ll need to go at least seven to give the Nationals a chance with their bullpen struggles of late. Don’t look for that to happen. Instead, count on the Cardinals to get a few against Roark and add on against the National’s bullpen in the final three innings.
As for Flaherty, look for the young right-hander to do well against the Nationals’ hitters who have been streaky all year. The youngster has a lot of swing and miss stuff and the Washington lineup has a lot of swing-and-miss as well.
In the end, look for the improved Cardinal bullpen—and defense—to be enough to overcome the still streaky and underperforming Nationals on Thursday.
MLB Odds: Cardinals 6, Nationals 4
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today!
