The Los Angeles Dodgers now have an opponent as the Washington Nationals knocked off the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Wild Card game on Tuesday night. Thanks to a strong starting rotation, the Nationals pose a real threat to the Dodgers though L.A. still enters this series as a sizeable favorite. Can the Dodgers take advantage of homefield advantage and knock off the Nationals or will Washington finally get their first postseason series victory in an upset?
The National League Division Series between the Cardinals and Braves starts on Thursday, October 3, 2019 at 5:02 p.m. ET at SunTrust Park. The series will be broadcast live on TBS.
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Odds Analysis
The postseason has been difficult for the Nationals. Washington has been a team full of disappointment in recent past whether missing the playoffs altogether or failing to do anything once there. This team has yet to win a postseason series but are getting another shot here.
The Dodgers, on the other hand, have made it to the World Series each of the last two seasons and are the favorites to get to the Fall Classic out of the NL again.
Los Angeles has more wins in the NL than any other team at 106 and were just a single win shy of the Astros for best record in baseball. Washington ended the season with a 13 fewer victories but are 74-38 since May 23.
Washington put together a strong second half, but then again, so did the Dodgers with a .657 second half winning percentage and 18-6 record in September. Further complicating things for the Nationals, L.A. was 59-22 at home. The Nationals were just a few games over-.500 on the road and will need to steal at least one in L.A. to win the series.
Probable Pitchers
The Nationals used both Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg in NL Wild Card game, leaving Patrick Corbin as the likely Game 1 starter for the Nats.
Fortunately for Washington, the strength of this team is the starting pitching. Between Corbin, Scherzer and Strasburg, the team has three No.1 starters. Corbin goes Game 1 and Strasburg could come back for Game 2 after throwing just over 30 pitches on Tuesday night.
If that’s the direction Dave Martinez goes, that would allow Scherzer to pitch Game 3 on regular rest and would line up Anibal Sanchez for Game 4 and give Martinez Corbin and Strasburg as options for Game 5, if they get there, with Scherzer available for a few innings out of the pen if necessary.
Corbin closed out the regular season with a 14-7 record and 3.25 ERA in his first season with Washington. He threw 202 innings and had a 1.183 WHIP and 3.49 FIP, striking out 10.6 per nine innings. Corbin, compared to Strasburg and Scherzer, did walk a few more batters, but still managed to work his way out of jams.
A former Diamondback, the southpaw has plenty of experience against the Dodgers and has a 3.36 ERA in 21 games though just a 5-9 record.
On the downside, however, the 30-year old is coming off a tough outing against Cleveland where he allowed six runs in 4.1 innings. He’ll need to bounce back from that quickly.
Scherzer will also need to bounce back off a rough outing. He allowed three runs in the first two innings against the Brewers in the Wild Card game. He did settle down to go three more, scoreless innings after that, but overall hasn’t looked like his dominant self of late. The Nationals need him to be lockdown if they’re going to get by the Dodgers.
Overall, Scherzer is workhorse. He was limited to just 27 starts but threw 172.1 innings and had a 11-7 record and 2.92 ERA with a 1.027 WHIP and league leading 2.45 FIP. The three-time Cy Young Award winner is one of the best starters in baseball when he’s right. The concern is whether he’s right.
He did produce 21 strikeouts to just one walk over his last two starts, but still allowed nine runs—all earned—in those two starts in just 12.2 innings. On the positive side, he did allow just two runs in seven innings in his lone start against the Dodgers this season. He’s also a career 3.83 ERA postseason pitcher, including a solid series against the Dodgers back in the 2016 NLDS.
Moving on to Strasburg, he threw three innings in the Wild Card game, but was very effective and pitch efficient. Those three scoreless frames improved his postseason ERA to 0.41. He made a good impression in his last postseason, throwing two games in the NLDS against the Cubs in 2017, going 14 innings with just six hits, three walks and 22 strikeouts. He allowed just two runs that series—both unearned.
This year, Strasburg led the NL in wins going 18-6 and had a 3.32 ERA, 1.038 WHIP and 3.25 FIP. He posted a 4.48 K:BB ratio and was rather effective at limiting the home runs as well, despite the ball flying more than ever. His 209 innings were a career and league high and that’s a bit concerning for a pitcher that’s had his injury issues. Nevertheless, he hasn’t shown any fatigue down the stretch. He was nails in the NL Wild Card game and prior to that allowed three-runs or fewer in eight straight games. He allowed two or less in seven of those games and didn’t allow a run in three. In his last start against the Dodgers, he allowed just one run on two hits in seven frames.
Rounding out the Nationals’ rotation, Sanchez is a clear step down from the big three but is still a more than capable starter with a 3.85 ERA and 1.271 WHIP in 166 innings. He’s 19-percent better than league average based on ERA+ though he struggled in a loss to the Dodgers as a member of the Braves in last year’s NLDS.
Speaking of the Dodgers, they—of course—have quite a strong rotation themselves, three members of which made the All-Star team this year: Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, and Hyun-Jin Ryu.
Kershaw likely lines up for Game 1 and Buehler could be used to break up the lefties, slotting Ryu in for Game 3 on the road.
The 31-year old Kershaw has long been the best pitcher in baseball but has slipped a bit in the last couple years. Nevertheless, he’s still a very good hurler with a 16-5 record this year along with a 3.03 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in his 178.1 innings of work. The three-time Cy Young Award winner has been criticized in his career for being a regular season pitcher and the numbers bear that out. He’s just 9-10 with a 4.32 ERA in 30 postseason games.
Kershaw, however, did dominant in an eight-inning performance in last year’s NLDS and generally has pitched well in the playoffs, but has been left in an inning to long as the Dodgers’ bullpen has been the weakness.
The veteran southpaw threw a single brush up inning in the season’s final game, going against the Giants, and prior to that had a six-inning shutout performance against the Padres so he’s coming into play with confidence.
Buehler is the baby of this pitching staff. At 25-years old, he’s still learning, but had a great year with a 14-4 record, 3.26 ERA and 1.024 WHIP. He was, arguably, unlucky as he had a 3.01 FIP and showed phenomenal command, walking just 37 batters in 182.1 innings. He struck out 215.
Beuhler got his first postseason taste last year and had a 3.80 ERA in four starts. He’ll try and build off that but may struggle against the Nationals. After all, this is a team that hung seven runs off him n a 5.1 inning starts back in July. Of course, he did hold them scoreless in seven back in May—but that was when the Nationals were off to their dismal 19-31 start.
As for Ryu, he was the All-Star game starter and was on pace for a Cy Young Award midseason, but after a 1.73 ERA in the first half, he pitched to a 3.18 ERA in the second half. That left him with a 2.32 ERA for the year, still the best in the league. Add to that a 14-5 record and 1.007 WHIP and it’s a fine season.
Ryu started Game 1 of the NLDS last year and threw seven innings of scoreless baseball to get the Dodgers off to a good start, but he didn’t fair nearly as well in the NLCS or World Series.
Fatigue is an issue for Ryu who finally had a mostly healthy season. His 29 starts and 182.2 innings was, by far, the most he’s thrown since his rookie season in 2013. We saw the fatigue set in in August, but he seemed to get through it after having two seven-inning shutouts in his last three games and allowed just two total runs in 21 innings in those final three outings.
If needed, the Dodgers’ Game 4 starter is likely Rich Hill though he’ll be limited to just a few innings with a slew of starters-turned-relievers to give innings behind him including Ross Stripling, Julio Urias and others.
Hill’s struggled with injuries this year and made just 13 starts and pitched only 58.2 innings but was effective in those innings with a 4-1 record, 2.45 ERA and 1.125 WHIP.
Bullpen Breakdown
The bullpen is where things get dicey for the Nationals, but it’s also been an Achilles Heel for the Dodgers in the past and could be again despite a 3.78 bullpen ERA this season, the best in the NL.
Based on the numbers, this is a clear area of advantage for the Dodgers. Washington, after all, had the worst bullpen in baseball with a 5.66 ERA and we saw Dave Martinez’s lack of trust in the pen in the Wild Card game where he went with Strasburg for three innings of relief.
We’ve seen teams juggle starters in the bullpen successful over the last few postseasons. The Astros won the World Series a couple years ago doing that and Boston juggled Rick Porcello and Nate Eovaldi between the pen and the rotation in route to a World Series title last year. Washington may need to do something similar to get by the Dodgers in the NLDS.
Daniel Hudson was the only true reliever used in the Wild Card game. He went a scoreless inning. He’s been the team’s closer down the stretch and has pitched brilliantly since being acquired midseason. Hudson’s allowed just four earned runs in 25 innings for Washington this season.
In addition to Hudson, Sean Doolittle, Fernando Rodney, Hunter Strickland, and Tanner Rainey are viable relievers in spots, but those five were the only true relievers even on the Wild Card roster, indicating the level of trust the organization has in the rest of the reliever options.
The Dodgers, of course, do have a bit more bullpen depth. Kenley Jansen is a proven closer and has shown himself in postseason pasts though he’s not the same pitcher he was a couple years ago. He has a 3.71 ERA and did give up nine homers in 63 innings.
Ahead of Jansen, Joe Kelly was a postseason hero last year, but has been extremely volitale in his career—and season. Pedro Baez and Yimi Garcia are options, too.
Where the Dodgers are going to sink or swim in the pen is from its starters turned relievers. Julio Urias and Ross Stripling both got a lot of play in the pen during the regular season. Kenta Maeda has been a big force in the pen in postseasons past and is there again in 2019.
Offensive Comparison
The Dodgers and Nationals finished first and second, respectively, in the National League in both runs scored and team OPS. The second half, it’s the Nationals with the advantage in runs scored. The gap gets bigger in Washington’s favor when focusing on the final month of the season.
Los Angeles, arguably, has the better offense on paper, but the Nationals have the better momentum at the dish.
Overall, the Nationals are the more rounded offense with a higher average, better OBP and more steals, but don’t have the power of the Dodgers even though L.A. plays in a pitcher-friendly stadium. The Dodgers have out-homered the Nationals on the season by 48-bombs.
Cody Bellinger leads the Dodgers’ offense and is a top MVP candidate with a .305/.406/.629 slash line. His 47 home runs and 115 RBI lead the team though there are two other hitters, Max Muncy and Joc Pederson each with at last 35 homers. Other hitters like Justin Turner, A.J. Pollock, Corey Seager, Chris Taylor, Matt Beaty, Will Smith, David Freese and several others give Dave Roberts plenty of options to matchup and L.A. a threatening lineup one through eight in the order. Bellinger is the guy the Nationals have targeted to not let beat them, but he’s far from the only dangerous hitter.
On the Nationals’ side, the offense is built around Juan Soto and Anthony Rendon. Soto was the hero of the Wild Card game after his big hit. On the season he tied Rendon with 34 homers and delivered 110 RBI along with a .949 OPS. Rendon had a 1.010 OPS with 126 RBI and a .319/.412/.598 slash line.
Along with those two superstars, the Nats have a collection of veteran hitters with Howie Kendrick, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Brain Dozier leading the way.
Adam Eaton is a good table-setter with a .365 OBP and some steals. Victor Robles and Trea Turner add to the speed on the team with 28 and 35 steals, respectively. Both can also get a big homer or double to set up an inning.
MLB Pick
The Nationals stack up well with the Dodgers in the rotation and at the plate but have a sizeable disadvantage in the bullpen. While Los Angeles’ pen isn’t as strong as the regular season numbers might indicate, the options are far more plentiful for L.A. compared to Washington.
Washington has already had to use two starters in one game and the trio of Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin could get worn thin. Washington needs all three to be elite and Scherzer already raised a few questions in his mediocre outing in the Wild Card game.
L.A. should win this series in the middle and late innings, but Washington has the bats to keep things close and interesting.
The Dodgers are the favorites (-178) in this series for a reason and should come out on top, extending the Nationals’ streak of failure in postseason series, but look for the Nationals to at least make it a series. Still, Los Angeles should take this in four.
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