The season’s opening series didn’t go as planned for the Washington Nationals who had to go down to the wire on Sunday to avoid a three-game sweep at the hands of the New York Mets. Now, the Nationals will have a chance for revenge as the Mets get set to host Washington in another best-of-three, this time in the Big Apple.
With the NL East so stacked with potential playoff teams, these head-to-head series between likely contenders are important, even at the beginning of the season. Can the Nationals prevent New York from taking too big of a lead in the season series or will the Mets take advantage of their home field in this one to further dominate the Nationals?
The three game weekend series between the Nationals and Mets starts on Thursday, April 4, 2019 at the Citi Field, with first pitch at 1:10 p.m. ET.
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Odds Analysis
A season ago, the Nationals finished barely over .500 despite being heavy favorites to win the division going into the year. The Mets meanwhile floundered to a 77-85 record.
Head-to-head, the Mets actually topped the Nationals in 11 of their 19 games despite Washington ended up with a handful more wins. New York has gotten off to a similar start in 2019, but will it last?
Both teams have an interesting offense. Injuries to Jed Lowrie and Todd Frazier have already challenged the Mets’ depth, but they promoted Pete Alonso who had a great series against Washington going 6-for-12 with three doubles and a pair of walks from the two-hole.
Wilson Ramos and Robinson Cano, two of the biggest offensive additions have looked good in the early going as well.
Unlike last year, this Mets’ lineup has some depth to it. Last year, New York was in the bottom third of baseball in runs scored compared to the Nationals who ranked No.8 with almost 100 more runs scored.
This year the Nationals are without Bryce Harper and that’s certainly a loss, but Washington is still an interesting offensive club. They’ve got some more speed with Victor Robles taking over Harper’s spot. They can manufacture runs a bit better and figure to be a more aggressive team.
Trea Turner is off to a huge start hitting between Adam Eaton and Antony Rendon in the heart of the order. With Eaton, Turner, Rendon and Juan Soto in the top four spots in the lineup, the Nationals still have a strong top of the order with Ryan Zimmerman, Brain Dozier and Yan Gomes serviceable veteran hitters in the bottom half.
Probable Pitchers
Both the Nationals and Mets have a strong starting rotation, particularly at the top. We were given an epic showdown between Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer to open the season last Thursday, but won’t get a rematch in New York.
Based on how the rotations line up this time around, Washington would seem to have an edge in the starting pitching side of things this time around.
The Nationals will start off with Stephen Strasburg in the series opener matching up against Noah Syndergaard in a rematch of Game 2 of the season. Syndergaard and the Mets got the best of that matchup, but Strasburg threw the ball well, but ended up allowing four runs in six innings though he did strikeout eight.
On the other side, Syndergaard pitched a nearly identical game with four runs allowed in six innings though he did a better job avoiding free passes. Neither pitcher got the win in their first meeting, but the Mets did come out on top in the game.
Overall, these are still two of the best No.2 starters in the game. Syndergaard is a career 2.97 ERA hurler with a career 10 K:9 ratio. He’s got electric stuff and one of the highest velocity fastballs in the game, particularly for a starter.
Strasburg’s got great stuff, too. For both health is the biggest question mark and for now, both seem healthy.
While Game 1 of the series features an even matchup. Game 2 is similar with Zack Wheeler and Patrick Corbin the likeliest hurlers. Game 3 could have a mismatch with Scherzer on the bump for the Nationals against Steven Matz of the Mets.
For the Wheeler versus Corbin matchup, this is another rematch. These two started the game on Sunday that the Nationals ultimately won. Wheeler struck out six Washington hitters in five innings, but also allowed four runs on six hits while throwing 95 pitches. Corbin tossed 94, but lasted an extra inning, tossing six frames with just two runs allowed. He did give up his share of hits, but did a good job minimizing damage.
Corbin will be making his second Nationals start in this series and will look to again make a good impression. The southpaw was the team’s big offseason addition and is coming off a huge 2018 for the Diamondbacks that earned him an All-Star berth and top-5 finish in the NL Cy Young voting. He was 11-7 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in 200 innings of work as his strikeout number skyrocketed.
Wheeler also had a break out year last year with a 12-7 record and 3.31 ERA. His numbers, particularly in the strikeout department, weren’t quite as impressive, but his overall results were similar.
As for the Game 3 matchup, Matz is an interesting young arm for the Mets. He’s had a ton of issues staying healthy, but save a rough 2017 has generally been good when he’s been able to take the mount. Last year he finally made 30 starts and had a 3.97 ERA and 1.247 WHIP. Those numbers aren’t Cy Young level, but they’re solid for a mid-rotation arm despite a 5-11 record and inflated 4.62 FIP. Walks and home runs can be an issue for Matz at times.
While Matz doesn’t have Cy Young numbers, Scherzer—his likely counterpart on Sunday—sure does. The three-time Cy Young Award winner pitched well despite taking the loss in the season opener, allowing just two runs in 7.2 innings while striking out 12. He had just two hits and three walks against him in the game.
At 34-years old, Scherzer is getting up there in age, but hasn’t shown signs of slowing yet. He’s been a top-5 finisher in the Cy Young voting each of the last six years and finished first or second each of the last three.
Since joining the Nationals five years ago, he’s pitched to a .673 winning percentage with a 2.70 ERA and 0.923 WHIP. His numbers were even better last year when he was 18-7 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.911 WHIP in 220.2 innings. He’s also one of few pitchers that can still be counted on for depth, helping to save the bullpen.
Live Betting
Speaking of the bullpen, both the Mets and Nationals saw their relief arms struggle a bit in the opening series.
Sean Doolittle and Edwin Diaz are both lockdown, All-Star closers for their respective teams, but the answers to get to them need to be sorted.
The Mets bulked up the pen this offseason by adding Justin Wilson and bringing back Jeurys Familia. Robert Gsellman, as a result slides earlier in the game alongside Seth Lugo. There is depth in this bullpen, but the Nationals got to Wilson in Sunday’s loss and Gsellman proved hittable in his appearance.
Meanwhile, the Nationals added Kyle Barraclough and Trevor Rosenthal. The former has looked good in a couple outings, but the latter has yet to record an out in two appearances, allowing five runs.
All three of the Nationals’ scheduled starters went six innings the last time they pitched and should minimize the bullpen’s exposure. Barraclough and Doolittle may be enough if they get the ball with the lead.
MLB Pick
Given how the starting pitching lines up for these three games, look for the Nationals to nab the series win, taking two of three against the Mets.
Washington will be motivated for a bit of payback. The Nationals’ bullpen was concerning in the first series against the Mets, but New York’s pen had some issues, too. Look for Strasburg, Scherzer and Corbin to put up three quality performances, giving the bullpen and the offense a chance in all three games. New York may be able to break through against the Washington pen in one of those game, but the Nationals have gotten good starts to the year from Turner, Rendon and a number of others which should lead to enough runs, at least against Wheeler, Matz and the middle of the pen.
On paper, these teams are quite evenly matched and by the end of this series could be knotted up at three games apiece in the season series.
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