Bryce Harper has already played his former team five times this year, but it’ll continue to be a story anytime he leads the Philadelphia Phillies against the Washington Nationals in the 2019 campaign. Starting Friday, the Phillies will host the Nationals again in another three game series head-to-head. Philadelphia is off to a better start this year and holds a 3-2 edge in the season series. Can they grow that further in these next three home games or will the Nationals overcome injuries and early season struggles to get a momentum building series victory over the weekend?
The four-game weekend series between the Nationals and Phillies starts on Friday, May 3, 2019 at Citizens Bank Park, with first pitch slated for 7:05 p.m. ET.
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Odds Analysis
The Nationals have won three of the five meetings with the Phillies this year, combining for 34 runs in those three wins.
We will see if Washington’s offense can have the same level of success this time around. They’ve scored three runs or fewer in four of their last five games and have their best hitter on the IL.
Anthony Rendon won’t be back in the lineup until next week at the earliest, joining Trea Turner on the shelf and leaving Juan Soto with little protection.
Soto’s 2019 season has been good, but he’s had to adjust a bit after a dynamic rookie campaign. He’s still an elite player with power and a good eye, but he needs help. Victor Robles has slowed after a hot start and Adam Eaton is getting on base, but not doing much else.
The best hitters available aside from Soto may be Howie Kendrick and Matt Adams who are more bench bats. Adams will be in the lineup in place of Ryan Zimmerman and Kendrick could find his way in for Rendon or a struggling Brian Dozier. Carter Kieboom recently got the promotion to the Majors to help at short where Wilmer Difo hasn’t been able to provide much offensively, but the youngster is going through normal adjustments.
The Nationals’ offense isn’t the only one struggling at the moment. Bryce Harper has gone cold and the Phillies’ offense has joined him. Harper’s even gotten some boos from the hometown fans frustrated by the offensive woes that have led Philadelphia to score one or fewer runs in five of their last nine games. The team is 4-5 in that span. Harper has just three hits.
Still, the team the lineup is deep and could break out anytime. Amongst those five games of offensive futility is a 12 run outburst.
Rhys Hoskins is still a monster with a 1.001 OPS. Jean Segura is hitting .329. Andrew McCutchen, Maikel Franco, and J.T. Realmuto are producing above average numbers per OPS+.
Probable Pitchers
Given the early struggles of Aaron Nola, the Nationals have the advantage in starting pitching when comparing the starting five, but the matchups in this three-game series will be a bit more even with Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg pitching the two games prior to this series, leaving Jeremy Hellickson, Patrick Corbin, and Anibal Sanchez in line for the starts for the Nationals. The Phillies will counter with Jerad Eickhoff, Jake Arrieta, and Zach Eflin.
The series opener on Friday essentially pins two No.5 starters against each other. Hellickson starts for the Nationals, making his third appearance of the season against the Phillies while Eickhoff starts for the Phillies after starting the year in Triple-A.
Hellickson pitched well against Philadelphia earlier this year. He allowed a couple runs in relief, but totaled eight innings with a start and a bullpen appearance, allowing two runs on six hits. He did walk four, but the Phillies were unable to take advantage of the poor command by their former teammate.
Overall, Hellickson comes into play with a 5.82 ERA in 21.2 innings, struggling in his last couple starts.
Eickhoff, meanwhile, is only in the rotation due to struggles by Nick Pivetta. He was okay in a couple Triple-A starts before coming back to the Majors. He did have a 3.56 ERA in 33 big league starts in 2016, but has regressed each year from there.
So far this year, he’s thrown 17 innings, allowing four runs on 12 hits with just five walks and 20 strikeouts. Eickhoff has yet to allow a run at home this season in 11 innings and is coming off seven scoreless, giving up just two hits in his last start; that coming against the Marlins.
The second game will feature a couple bigger name starters with Patrick Corbin and Jake Arrieta.
The Nationals’ southpaw allowed six runs in five innings against the Cardinals his last time out, ballooning his ERA from 2.48 to 3.58. He’s still been a strong start so far for the Nationals and will try and bounce back from the tough start.
His first five starts were great for the Nationals and he’s got 44 strikeouts to just 10 walks in his 37.2 innings pitched. Going back a bit further, Corbin is coming off a 3.15 ERA in 200 innings for the Diamondbacks last year.
As for Arrieta, his first year in Philadelphia wasn’t the greatest. He struggled down the stretch and was part of the reason for the team’s late season collapse. Despite that, he’s off to a solid start this year and is 4-2 with a 3.46 ERA in 39 innings.
His stuff has diminished since his Cy Young season, but he’s still a proven veteran that can make pitches and get outs. He did, however, struggled in his last start. In that one, he allowed five runs and nine hits to a bad Marlins lineup. He lasted just five innings in that game. He’ll need to rebound against a team he hasn’t found much success against in his career. He’s got a 5.26 ERA in 13 games against Washington.
Closing out the series will be one pitcher that’s underperformed expectations and another that’s exceeded them.
Sanchez is the one that’s struggled. The Nationals’ hurler came onboard after a huge bounce back season in 2018 where he had a 2.83 ERA in 25 games. Prior that, however, it had been years since he was even an average pitcher.
He’s off to a 0-4 start with a 5.91 ERA. He’s had no command so far in 2019 with 18 free passes in 32 innings of work. He’s also now lost three straight starts while allowing 12 runs in 15.1 innings in those starts.
While Sanchez has struggled in the first month of his season, Eflin has thrived. He’s 3-3 with a 3.34 ERA and has a 35:5 strikeout to walk ratio. He puts the ball in the zone and makes the opposition hit it. He does give up the occasional long ball, but he’s been able to induce generally weak contact and minimize damage when the opposition does take him deep.
Eflin has already faced the Nationals once this year, holding them scoreless in five innings in his season debut.
Live Betting
The Nationals currently sit a couple games below .500 and while the offense has struggled with some key injuries, Rendon being the most recent, the bullpen has been the big weak spot.
Washington’s bullpen has the worst ERA in the NL at 5.95. Only a truly disastrous Orioles bullpen is worse in all of baseball.
It’s alarming that included in that nearly six ERA are two guys in Sean Doolittle and Kyle Barraclough with sub-2 marks. Doolittle is a good closer and Barraclough is a nice piece, but they’re all that are reliable. Its hard to win consistently with only two relievers in today’s game.
The Phillies have a few more options. Hector Neris is performing in the closer’s role. Pat Neshek and Adam Morgan give different looks.
Morgan, in particular, has dominated in a matchup role without a run allowed in 11.2 innings. In fact, he’s only allowed six base runners with four hits and two walks.
MLB Pick
The Nationals’ offense will continue to struggle in this series with Rendon on the IL. The left side of the infield is now barren and while Kieboom is an interesting prospect for the future, he’s taking his lumps and adjusting to big league pitching.
Soto, Kendrick, and Adams may be able to help manufacture a few runs, but look for the Phillies’ pitchers to find success in this series.
Meanwhile, the Phillies offense should be able to produce enough even with their recent struggles. Harper should start hitting more as the Nationals will provide a bit of added incentive as should the recent boos from his home fans.
Look for Harper to break out and for the Phillies’ offense to do so in turn. Philadelphia should get enough offense to capture a couple games in this series. The Nationals could steal the middle game behind Corbin, but the Phillies should take the series at home.
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