The District of Columbia has it’s first postseason baseball series win in 95 years as the Washington Nationals advance to the NLCS. They’ll now take on the St. Louis Cardinals in this best-of-seven showdown. Both the Cardinals and the Nationals were underdogs in their division series matchups, but each got that postseason magic to advance. Now, these two teams will battle to keep their seasons—and magic—alive.
The National League Championship Series between the Nationals and Cardinals will begin on Friday, October 11, 2019at 8:08 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium. TBS will broadcast each game of this series.
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Odds Analysis
Home field advantage goes to the Cardinals despite the Nationals boasting the better regular season record, but that only means so much. After all, both the Cardinals and Nationals won a Game 5 on the road to advance to the NLCS.
Both teams got off to slower starts on the year, but both revved it up down the stretch with strong second halves making them a bit more dangerous than their records indicated. Both teams proved just that in their NLDS matchups.
Now these two squads are set for a showdown. The Cardinals have the edge in the season series, winning five of seven matchups. They’ll just need four of seven this time around. They’ve got the better bullpen and an offense that’s clicking but can they matchup up with the Nationals’ elite starting pitching.
Starting Pitchers
The Nationals have the edge here and Washington will need their starters to come through in a big way to win this series.
Anibal Sanchez is lined up for the start in Game 1 of this series after Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg pitched the final two games of the NLDS and Patrick Corbin pitched in relief in Game 3 and Game 5.
The trio of Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin is a real difference maker for the Nationals, but even Sanchez as the No.4 starter has been solid this season.
The 35-year old right-hander was 11-8 this year with a 3.85 ERA in his 166 innings of work. He’s not as likely as the other three to go deep in games but should provide the Nationals five or six solid innings. He did just that in his NLDS start, going five innings against the Dodgers and allowing just one run on four hits and two walks. He struck out nine in the effort.
Washington will hope for a similar performance from Sanchez in Game 1. Then, the team will turn back to its trio of aces.
Scherzer is the top dog of the group though the three-time Cy Young Award winner did stumble a bit down the stretch after coming back from injury. He ended the year with a 11-7 record and 2.92 ERA, but there were questions going into the playoffs.
The righty looked okay in his Wild Card Game start after a slow start to the game. He ended up going five innings and giving up three runs. In the NLDS, he started to regain form. He pitched in relief in Game 2, going a scoreless inning and then went seven strong in Game 4, allowing just one run. His NLDS performance lowered his postseason ERA to 3.60.
For as good as Scherzer has been, Strasburg may be the key. He has been lights out in his postseason career. He threw 12 innings in the NLDS, allowing four runs and striking out 17 to just one walk. Counting those innings, Strasburg has thrown 34 postseason innings and has a 1.32 ERA.
This year, the 30-year old right-hander won a league leading 18 games, going 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA in 209 innings of work. He also posted a 1.038 WHIP and 3.25 FIP. The team was 21-12 in his starts and he finished the year allowing no more than two runs in seven of his last eight starts. The one exception was three runs, six inning performance against Atlanta. In his last start against the Cardinals, he only went five innings, but limited them to two runs.
As for Corbin, he’s the southpaw of the bunch that’ll shake up the Cardinals’ lineup a bit. He was 14-7 with a 3.25 ERA in 202 innings this year. He put together a nice season and allowed just two runs—both unearned—against the Cardinals in six innings the last time he faced them. He got the win in that one.
Corbin did close out the regular season with a tough one against Cleveland, allowing six runs in 4.1 innings. He followed that up taking both Nationals’ losses in the NLDS though his start was pretty good as he allowed just two runs—one earned—in six innings in Game 1. He struggled in Game 2, giving up six runs in less than an inning of relief. He did, however, bounce back to go 1.1 innings without a hit or walk and with three strikeouts in Game 5.
To counter that strong rotation, the Cardinals have a pair of youngsters and a pair of veterans.
Jack Flaherty is the top guy. The 23-year old really came into his own in the second half of the season, pitching to a 0.91 ERA and 0.715 WHIP in 99.1 innings spread over 15 games. That elevated him into the Cy Young conversation.
Overall, he ended the year with 6.0 WAR and a 11-8 record to go with a 2.75 ERA and 0.968 WHIP in 196.1 innings. Those numbers put him up with the Nationals’ trio.
Flaherty pitched two games in the NLDS, including Game 5. Overall, he threw 13 innings, allowing four runs on 12 hits and striking out 16. Those are strong numbers, but by pitching Game 5, that likely pushes him back to Game 3 of the NLCS with Adam Wainwright and Miles Mikolas likely slotted in to pitch the first two games.
Wainwright is the grizzled veteran. At 37-years old, he’s not the same dominant pitcher he was once upon a time, but he still put together a solid season with a 14-10 record and 4.19 ERA. He’s also coming off an impressive outing in the NLDS against the Braves where he went 7.2 scoreless innings with just four hits and two walks. He struck out eight in that start. That performance helped lower Wainwright’s postseason ERA to 2.79 in his 96.2 postseason innings.
Wainwright went seven innings of one run ball against the Nationals when he faced them back in mid-September, too.
As for Mikolas, he had a much better season last year when he finished sixth in the Cy Young Award voting. This year, he led the NL in losses with 14, but ultimately pitched reasonably well. He ended with a 4.16 ERA and 4.27 FIP in 184 innings of work.
Mikolas finished the season strong and carried that into a strong performance in the NLDS where he held the Braves to one run and three hits in six frames. He threw a quality start against the Nationals in late September as well.
The final Cardinals’ starter for this series is Dakota Hudson. The young right-hander had a strong season, going 16-7 with a 3.35 ERA in 174.2 innings, but some of that was a result of smoke and mirrors as he had a 4.93 FIP and rather high walk rate. He’ll need to have better command in this series though he only walked two in his start against the Braves in the NLDS though he did allow four runs and only pitched 4.2 innings.
Bullpen Breakdown
While the Nationals have the advantage in the starting rotation, the Cardinals close the overall pitching gap a bit with the bullpen.
St. Louis got some quality innings from Andrew Miller, Giovanny Gallegos, and John Brebbia in the NLDS. Carlos Martinez also got a save in that series though he did have a rough outing also. Those four along with some quality—though slightly less reliable—arms like Tyler Webb, Ryan Helsley, and Genesis Cabrera.
The Cardinals have some good options from both the left and right side, including a proven postseason reliever like Miller. Michael Wacha is another bullpen option with an impressive NLCS track record.
During the regular season, the Cardinals posted the second-best bullpen ERA in the National League at 3.82. That is a stark contrast to the Nationals who had the worst bullpen ERA in baseball at 5.66.
Ultimately, the Nationals have two reliable bullpen arms in Daniel Hudson and Sean Doolittle. Hudson was a midseason acquisition who has proven to be instrumental. Since joining the Nationals, he pitched to a 1.44 ERA in 25 regular season innings. He’s added to that with 3.2 scoreless postseason innings this year.
Hudson is the currently closer for the team, taking over for Doolittle who was overworked in the first half. He struggled in the second half but has gotten back on track. He allowed just a single run on a solo homer in 3.1 innings in the NLDS.
Between Doolittle and Hudson, the Nationals have answers for a couple innings, but will rely on the starters to go deep in games to have a chance. Dave Martinez showed his lack of faith in the rest of the bullpen by using Corbin and Scherzer in relief in the NLDS and Strasburg out of the pen in the NL Wild Card game.
Offensive Comparison
The Nationals have scored the second most runs in the National League while the Cardinals rank No.10 though both teams were better offensively the second half. Washington scored more than anyone else since the All-Star break and posted a .832 OPS. The Cardinals offense ticked upwards, too, scored the fourth most runs and boasting a solid .757 OPS in that time.
Washington’s offense is built around the tandem of Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto in the middle of the order. The two went back-to-back against Clayton Kershaw in Game 5 of the NLDS to help extend the game into extra innings where the team eventually won on a Grand Slam from Howie Kendrick.
Speaking of Kendrick, he’s been a huge part of this offense hitting .344 and offering some power in addition to a quality at bat nearly every time up.
In addition to Kendrick, Asdrubal Cabrera and Ryan Zimmerman offer quality, veteran at-bats. Meanwhile, Trea Turner and Victor Robles keep pitchers honest with their speed. Adam Eaton and Turner both also have an OBP over .350 as table-setters ahead of the Rendon and Soto duo.
Going back to Rendon and Soto, the two combined for 68 home runs and 236 RBI while putting up a 1.010 OPS and .949 OPS, respectively.
The Cardinals dynamic duo in the middle of the order to compete with Rendon and Soto are Paul Goldschmidt and Marcell Ozuna.
Neither slugger had their best season this year, but both are dynamic power bats who can take the team on their respective shoulders. St. Louis had four home runs total in the NLDS with Goldschmidt and Ozuna both hitting a pair. In addition, Goldschmidt also had four doubles as he hit .429 in the series.
In addition to those two, Tommy Edman had a great series, too. Since coming up in the regular season, he hit .304 with power and speed.
The numbers favor the Nationals in terms of offense, but we saw how good this offense can be in Game 5 of the NLDS when the dominated the Atlanta pitching to the tune of 10 runs in the first inning.
MLB Pick
These are two underdog teams that managed to upset their NLDS opponents. Both are coming into the NLCS with plenty of confidence and both saw their overall performance improve as the season wore on. They’re playing their best brand of baseball right now, making for a very interesting and balanced matchup.
The starting pitching gives the Nationals’ the advantage, but the bullpen makes the pitching a bit more even. Offensively, both these teams have the bats to get the big hits and the key hitters in the heart of the order swinging well coming into this series.
On the year, the Nationals’ offense has done more. They’ve got a slight edge there and with the starting pitching, should be in position to win the game most days. The question is: can the bullpen hold on?
We’ve seen the last two World Series champions win while using key starting pitchers out of the bullpen on the days they don’t start. Washington will need some relief innings from their three big starters, but they have the bulldog arms able to do that.
Look for the Nationals’ starting pitching to be the difference and for Dave Martinez to find a way to piece together the pitching as Washington overcomes their bullpen woes to make it to the Fall Classic in six games.
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