A battle for the east kicks off on Monday when the NL East leading Atlanta Braves host the AL East leading Boston Red Sox in the first game of a three-game series. The Sox have the far superior record of the two teams, leading baseball in wins, but both teams look destined for October, leaving this as a possible World Series preview. In this series opener, the Sox have David Price lined up to take the mound against Sean Newcomb for the Braves. Neither team have officially announced their rotation.
First pitch for the game between Red Sox and Braves is scheduled for Monday, September 3, 2018, at 1:05 p.m. ET at SunTrust Park. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Red Sox are by far the best team in baseball when considering record. They’ve already won 92 games and have an outside shot at the single season win record of 116. They’re 4-6 in their last 10 games, however.
Atlanta, on the other hand, is 6-3 in its last nine game and has bounce back from a sweep by the Rockies in the middle of the month. Overall, the Braves are 20-11 since July 29, going from a game and half down to 3.5-up in the NL East.
Offensively, both are very good teams. The Sox are first in baseball in runs scored while the Braves rank third in the NL. The biggest difference between the two teams is in the power department where the Sox have exhibited far more pop. Boston’s .270 average is best in baseball in an era of a lot of swing and miss, but Atlanta’s got a strong .261, both can put the bat on the ball.
In Boston, the offense obviously centers on J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts. Those two are arguably the two best MVP candidates in the AL and they’re on the same team. Martinez has a legitimate chance to win the Triple Crown. He’s hit .337 with 38 homers and 111 RBIs. Betts, meanwhile, has primarily batted leadoff, hurting his RBI total, but he’s batting .340 with a higher OPS of 1.066 compared to 1.061. He’s also played exceptional defense.
Those two alone provide more offense than some teams, but they’re not alone. Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts and more also contribute to the league best offense.
For Atlanta, Adam Duvall hasn’t done anything since being acquired. He was supposed to help the team against southpaw but has a -14 OPS+ for the team. That won’t help, but the team doesn’t really need him.
Freddie Freeman is a top MVP candidate in the NL with a .310/.394/.508 slash line. The numbers aren’t equal to those of Martinez or Betts, but they’re still strong. Meanwhile, Ronald Acuna is a front runner for Rookie of the Year with a .912 OPS and 21 homers in 81 games. The rest of the lineup is strong, too, with the Braves lineup arguably deeper than the Sox’s.
Probable Pitchers
Monday would be David Price’s next turn in the rotation, but the veteran southpaw left his last start early after getting hit in the wrist by a comebacker in Miami. Price got an MRI and results were negative, but the Sox remain unsure if he’ll be able to make his next start. If not, Hector Velazquez is a possible replacement. They’ll also have the luxury of an expanded roster which could also afford a youngster a start.
It’ll be a shame if Price cannot go. He’s been throwing the ball exceptionally well, pitching better than he has at any other point in his Red Sox’s career.
The lefty is 14-6 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.155 WHIP, taking up the mantle of ace with Chris Sale on the DL. He’s made 26 starts and thrown 152.1 innings, striking out 152, pitching to a 3.87 FIP.
Before his start against Miami, Price had thrown seven straight quality starts and gone six straight starts with at least six innings and two or fewer runs, including an eight-inning shutout against the Indians immediately prior to his last start.
Boston has gone 20-6 in Price’s starts, winning nine straight.
If Price cannot go, Velazquez would be a reasonable replacement. He’s 7-2 with a 3.15 ERA in 71.1 innings. He’s made six starts this year and has 38 appearances. That’s not a bad backup plan.
On the other side of the matchup, Sean Newcomb takes the mound for the Braves. He doesn’t have the health questions plaguing Price but has plenty of other questions.
The young left-hander is the first of the crop of pitching prospects to come up and make an impact. A rookie last year, the 25-year old has built off the experience and put up a 11-7 record with a 3.85 ERA this year, but he seems to be tiring. He through 100 big league innings last year and is already up to 145 this year.
The southpaw’s FIP and WHIP are a bit high given his ERA at 4.14 and 1.324 respectively. He’s still walking too many batter with 69 free passes but has been able to get the big strikeout when needed and force weak contact to get out of trouble, at least until recently. Since August 10, he has an 8.68 ERA. He gave up six runs in four innings against the Rays in his last start and allowed seven runs in 5.1 innings a couple starts prior.
Given his recent struggles, Newcomb is a big question mark against a stout offense like the Red Sox.
Live Betting
If you want to find one thing wrong with the Boston team it’s the bullpen. Craig Kimbrel is a veteran and a pro, he’s blown a few saves, but will be alright. The guys setting him up, however, have struggled a bit recently too and are less proven.
The Sox will be calling up some reinforcement to give Alex Cora more options which will help, but it still comes down to Joe Kelly and Matt Barnes. Barnes has struggled recently.
Ryan Braiser has been impressive in 20 appearances with a 1.29 ERA and could be a factor in the game, too.
For the Braves, they’re working with a beefed-up bullpen with Brad Brach and Jonny Venters each pitching exceptionally well since being acquired. They’ve combined to allow two earned runs in 23.1 innings. That’s not bad. Meanwhile, A.J. Minter, Dan Winkler and Jesse Biddle are quality arms. The Braves will also take advantage of the expanded rosters and bring up some of the plethora of electric, young arms.
While most of their prospects figure to be starters in the big leagues, they’ll get their feet wet in the pen where they’re stuff will really play up in the Atlanta playoff push.
MLB Pick
The Red Sox have shown themselves to be beatable lately and the Braves are still a very good team but look for Boston to win this series opener.
Newcomb’s last few games don’t inspire confidence that the lefty can get the job done against the game’s best offense in Boston. Look for him to struggle and get knocked out of the game in or around the fifth inning.
The Sox’s bullpen hasn’t been bulletproof lately and could allow the Braves to get back into the game especially if Price can’t pitch and it turns into more of a bullpen game, but with expanded September rosters, Alex Cora will have more options and can have shorter leashes.
In the end, look for Boston to be victorious. The Sox bats will be patient against Newcomb, take their walks and take advantage of the extra base runners. Meanwhile, the pitching will do enough to hold the Atlanta offense at bay.
MLB Odds:Red Sox 7, Braves 4
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