The Boston Red Sox return to ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball this week as they take on the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field in the finale of a three-game weekend set between two division winners. This series could be a preview of the ALCS if both clubs make it past their division series matchup though even if that happens we’re not likely to see this pitching matchup in October as the Indians turn to Adam Plutko for the start and the Sox are expected to counter with Nathan Eovaldi.
First pitch of the game between the Red Sox and Indians is scheduled for Sunday, September 23, 2018, at 8 p.m. ET at Progressive Field. The matchup will be broadcast on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
For both the Indians and the Red Sox, this series is more about getting ready for October baseball than anything. Both will make it to the postseason, but how far will either team go?
We’ll have to wait and see, but if the offenses are any indication, there are big things on the horizon for both teams.
The Indians rank third in baseball in runs scored while the Red Sox top the baseball in offense. Both can hit the ball out of the park and both boast strong team batting averages. They’re two teams that can put the ball in play and both have a deep lineup with some of the game’s best hitters at the top.
For the Indians, they’ve added Josh Donaldson to an already deep lineup. With Donaldson at third, Jose Ramirez—an MVP candidate—shifts over to second, sending Jason Kipnis to the outfield. While Kipnis has had a below average season overall, he’s swinging a hot bat right now and will help solidify a weak spot on the team. He’s adequate defensively in centerfield, but his bad is a big upgrade over Greg Allen, Rajai Davis and Brandon Guyer who are still available for defense late in a game or to pinch run and help get a key steal.
In the heart of the order, the Indians have Ramirez as the centerpiece with a .280/.395/.572 slash line. He’s hit 38 homers and driven in 101. Edwin Encarnacion has 31 homers and 99 RBIs while Francisco Lindor is batting .281 with 77 extra base hits and Michael Brantley boasts a .304 average.
In Boston, Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez get all the publicity, and for good reason. The duo could finish one and two in AL MVP voting. They’re both hitting over .330, getting on base over 40-percent of the time and have an OPS+ of at least 174. That’s the best tandem of teammates we’ve seen in a long time, but they’re not alone.
Around the two is a lineup that includes a number of other strong hitters and while catcher is a weak spot offensively, the rest of the lineup more than makes up the difference. Steve Pearce and Brock Holt offer good bats off the bench, too.
Probable Pitchers
In this matchup, we have a filler starter for the Indians in Adam Plutko and a guy vying for a potential postseason rotation spot for the Sox in Nathan Eovaldi.
Plutko is back in the rotation for the first time since September 8. He’s had some success and some struggles through 15 appearances—11 starts—this year. The 26-year old rookie is 4-5 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.300 WHIP overall this season and has an elevated 5.91 FIP thanks in part to 19 home runs allowed in just 70 innings of work.
The righty has been pretty good about avoiding walks, but his strikeout rate is mediocre and he’s been hit hard quite frequently; rather than missing out of the zone, he’s missing in the zone and the opposition isn’t missing it.
The Red Sox are an offense that can take advantage of some flat pitches down the middle of the zone given all their power and that could be an issue in this game.
In his only appearance against Boston this year, Plutko allowed five runs in 4.1 innings of work and, surprisingly, kept the ball in the yard though he did walk five.
Overall, Plutko is a replacement level pitcher at this point of his career and will be going against the league’s best offense. That’s not a particularly strong matchup for him.
On the other side, Eovaldi is a more established starter and is coming off a six-inning shutout against the Yankees in his last start. He allowed just two hits and two walks in that game. In his last appearance against the Indians, however, he went 5.1 innings and allowed 10 hits while giving up four runs, a far less impressive outing.
Overall, the 28-year old right-hander is 5-7 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in 20 games and 104 innings at the big league level this year, splitting time with Tampa Bay and Boston. With the Red Sox, he’s 2-3 with a 3.64 ERA and 3.43 FIP though his WHIP is up to 1.362 as his BABIP have jumped. His walks are also up since joining Boston, but he’s allowed just three homers in 47 innings, allowing him to work out of the jams he’s gotten himself into.
Live Betting
With two starters with their share of struggles, we could see a bit of both bullpens in this game which could further help a pair of offenses that don’t really need the help.
The Red Sox have a pretty solid bullpen on paper, but the unit hasn’t been getting the job done in September outside of Craig Kimbrel.
Kimbrel’s a strikeout machine in the final inning, but Matt Barnes, Joe Kelly and Heath Hembree are suspect. The relievers are prone to walks and that can get them in trouble against elite offenses like the Indians who can take advantage of the extra base runners.
Still, of these two bullpens, the one that’ll struggle the most is the one that’ll be more exposed in the middle innings and that figures to the Indians as Plutko is far less reliable than Eovaldi at the front end.
The Indians have seen their bullpen improve. Andrew Miller is back, Cody Allen and Adam Cimber are both pitching better which helps take pressure off Brad Hand and situational lefty Oliver Perez, the two most dependable to do their jobs.
The Indian relievers do a better job finding the strike zone, but they’ll need to miss bats, too, and that’s hard for anyone to do against the Boston offense.
MLB Pick
Don’t look for much from Adam Plutko in this one. The righty has been a home run magnet this season and he’s going against the best offense in baseball on Sunday night.
Bank on the Red Sox taking him deep at least a couple times in route to a big game offensively and driving him out of the game early. Fortunately for the Indians, an expanded roster gives Terry Francona a number of choices in relief, but the bullpen hasn’t exactly been a strength for this team all year. Sure, the pen is better right now, but it’s never a good idea to ask any bullpen to give as many innings as the Tribe will have to get in relief on Sunday.
While Eovaldi brings his own collection of questions against a very strong Indians’ offense, he should at least fair a bit better than Plutko, keeping the ball in the yard a bit more.
The bullpens will play a bit role for both teams, but look for the Boston offense against the struggling rookie right-hander to be enough to give the Sox the win on the road over the Indians.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 8, Indians 5
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