While the races in the AL West and all across the NL are heating up, the Boston Red Sox remain well in control of the AL East as they get set to welcome in the division rival Tampa Bay Rays for the final game of a three-game series. Nathan Eovaldi returns to Tropicana Field for the first time since being traded to Boston prior to the deadline. He’ll get the start against his former team, looking to keep the Red Sox rolling.
First pitch of the game between the Red Sox and Rays is scheduled for Sunday, August 26, 2018, at 1:10 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field. The matchup will be televised nationally on TBS.
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Odds Analysis
The Rays have held their own against the AL East this year, playing particularly well against the Yankees, but the Sox have had Tampa Bay’s number, winning 11 of 16 head-to-head contests.
That, of course, should come as no surprise. The Sox have pretty much owned everyone. Offensively, they’ve been the best team in baseball and rank near the top on the mound and on defense, too. They’re a complete team.
Despite a three-game losing streak this past week, the Sox have still won 14 of 19 in August and have a .621 winning percentage every month this year. They’ve been good and consistently good, too.
Back to the offense, it’s really all about Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez, both of whom should be amongst the top three or five in the MVP voting. Betts has a .340/.426/.642 slash line while Martinez has a .333/.403/.657 slash line. Martinez also leads the AL in home runs with 38 and RBIs with 108. He’s also tops in hits and total bases, but Betts stands in his way of a Triple Crown season with his league leading average. Betts also brings a ton on defense, leading to his staggering 8.5 rWAR.
Beyond the fearsome duo, the Sox also have Andrew Benintendi putting up a 4.1 rWAR season and boasting a .299/.378/.497 slash line which is good enough to lead most teams, but he’s a complimentary player in Boston as is Xander Bogaerts who has a .886 OPS and whose 19 home runs makes him one six on the team with at least 15 bombs.
Boston is getting power up and down the order even with the catcher, second base and centerfield positions not yielding as much offense as expected. Mitch Moreland has also slowed a lot in the second half, but the addition of Steve Pearce, gives the team a good platoon and Ian Kinsler is back from the DL and looks rejuvenated now that he’s out of L.A. and back in a postseason hunt.
Boston is far and away the better offense compared to the Rays and has a ton more power, but Tampa Bay remains a competitive team. They’re five games over-.500 which would put them in the mix for the postseason in the NL, the AL is just too stacked at the top.
Offensively, Tampa Bay was a power team last year, but struggled with consistency. This year, they’ve focused more on athleticism. While Boston has six players with at least 15 dingers, now that Wilson Ramos is in Philadelphia, the Rays have just one with double digit homers: C.J. Cron.
Cron has provided a good amount of pop in the middle of the order with 24 homers. Jake Bauers has also hit nine homers in his 66 games since getting a promotion. Bauers’ average is only .209, but he’s getting on base at an okay rate. Beyond those two, it’s more about average and speed on this team. Mallex Smith is a great example with his .304 average, .374 OBP and 26 steals. They find ways to score runs, but don’t have the thump to match up with Boston if the game turns into a slugfest.
Probable Pitchers
Nathan Eovaldi gets the start on Sunday against his former team. He’ll be trying to get back to the form he had in first two starts with Boston as he’s slipped a bit since that time. Meanwhile, on the other side of this matchup, the Rays have yet to announce their starters for the series, but Blake Snell would be in line to make the start.
Snell is one of few legitimate starters on the Rays’ roster. Utilizing openers for a couple innings before going to a long man in the pen, Tampa Bay has re-invented how it handles the pitching staff, more out of necessity than anything. That approach, however, isn’t a necessity when Snell is pitching.
The young southpaw is 15-5 with a 2.07 ERA and 1.007 WHIP in 139 innings of work over 24 starts. He spent a bit of time on the DL, but has otherwise been a reliable, sturdy arm.
His ERA is amongst the best in the AL and he’s been exceptionally good at avoiding hard hit balls. He’s struck out 160 batters and allowed just 14 homers. His walk rate is a bit higher than you’d like to see, but he’s been able to overcome that quite well.
The first time All-Star is coming into uncharted territory in terms of innings pitched which may impact his production down the stretch, but for now, he’s showing no signs of fatigue. In fact, since coming off the DL at the start of the month, he’s pitched 20 innings and allowed just two runs on nine hits and four walks. He’s also struck out 26 in that time.
Snell’s last start against Boston came back in May when he held the Sox scoreless in six innings, allowing three hits and striking out eight. In three starts against the league’s best offense this year, Snell has allowed just two runs in 19 innings of work.
As for Eovaldi, he’s been a good comeback story after missing all last year after surgery. Combined between the Rays and Red Sox, he’s 5-5 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.106 WHIP in 85 innings. He’s been better than that with Boston, going 2-1 with a 2.89 ERA in five starts.
In his first two starts with the Sox, the right-hander was nearly unhittable. He combined or 15 shutout innings, allowing seven hits and one walk against the Twins and Yankees. He had a bit of a letdown against the Orioles of all teams after that, lasting just 2.2 innings, but since then has been better. He did, however, allow 10 hits and four runs in 5.1 innings against the Indians his last time out. He’ll try to bounce back from that.
Overall, Snell is the much more dynamic pitcher of the two. He can control a game and get out even the best offenses as he’s shown against the Sox on three occasions this year. Of course, he’s facing the better offense, too. Meanwhile, Eovaldi is a serviceable mid-rotation arm that’s taken his stuff up a level since joining Boston. He’s not as good as Snell, but has learned to pitch better since his surgery and can maneuver his way through lineups, typically giving a solid outing.
Live Betting
It may come as a bit of a surprise, but in the month of August only the Oakland A’s have outpitched the Rays. Tampa Bay has a 2.59 ERA in the month. The Sox’s have a 3.68 mark.
While the monthly ERA is both starts and relievers, the way Tampa Bay runs its pitching staff puts a lot more on the ‘relievers’ given the lack of starting pitching outside Snell.
The Rays don’t have the biggest names, but they have gotten great good production from those they do have including the long relievers that get the ball after the likes of Ryne Stanek open up the game. They’ve also got some good late inning options in veteran closer Sergio Romo and set up options Jose Alvarado and Chaz Roe. The turnover in the Rays pitching staff is high, but the results have been good. Kevin Cash has proven himself highly adept at putting his pitchers in the best possible positions for them to succeed.
Of course, just like the rest of the team, the Red Sox’s bullpen is good, too. When you’re 50-games over-.500, it’s hard to find any holes on a team. Craig Kimbrel anchors the pen from the closer’s spot with a 2.47 ERA and 37 saves while Hector Velazquez, Matt Barnes, Brandon Workman and Ryan Braisier all have sub-3 ERAs.
MLB Pick
It’s hard to justify picking against the Red Sox in any game. After all, they’ve got the best record in baseball by a mile and seemingly never lose, but if there’s any game to take the opposition, it’s Sunday.
Look for Snell to have another good game against Boston. The addition of Pearce for the Sox gives them another good bat against the southpaw, but that’s still not enough if his stuff is on. Good pitching beats good hitting.
Count on a good outing from Snell and solid pitching in relief to close out a close win. On the other side of this matchup, look for Eovaldi to pitch reasonably well, but he’s had some bumps in the road of late and he’ll give up a few runs in this contest. While the Sox’s bullpen is good in the backend, the Rays won’t have to worry about Craig Kimbrel if they can go into the ninth with the lead.
The Sox won’t lose by much, but look for the Rays to steal this getaway game on Sunday afternoon from the mighty Red Sox.
MLB Odds: Rays 4, Red Sox 3
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