Sitting at .500 at the All-Star break, many fans wrote off the St. Louis Cardinals as a true contender when they sent Mike Matheny packing and then traded Tommy Pham to the Rays. Those were signs of a failed season, but since then, this team has turned the corner and will face the Milwaukee Brewers on Saturday in the middle game of a very important three-game series. Going into the series, the two teams are separate by a game in the standings and are both still within striking distance of the NL Central.
First pitch of the game between the Brewers and Cardinals is scheduled for Saturday, August 18, 2018, at 7:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium. The matchup will be televised on FS1.
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Odds Analysis
A baseball season is a marathon. The Brewers have seen that the last two years. They’ve been leading the NL Central for a while and have stumbled a bit in the second half, same as last year. The Cardinals, meanwhile, were floating around .500 for a while, but a change in manager and shuffling of the players has really paid dividends.
St. Louis have been one of the best teams in baseball since the start of August and are 12-2 in the first 14 games of the month. The offense is clicking as Matt Carpenter continues to put up absolutely insane numbers. He’s leading the league with a 163 OPS+ on the season and has a league high 33 homers, but his numbers lately have been even better. The issue now, however, is his health. He injured his hand against the Nationals on Wednesday, but should be better and ready to go by the end of the weekend.
The outfield is no longer holding down the offensive production either and the likes of Harrison Bader are providing a bit more of a spark.
Bader hasn’t just been a nice offensive spark, but he’s also been a great defender, shaking up the defensive issues plaguing the Cards. Plus, with Carpenter shifting to first base, Jose Martinez moving to the outfield, the defense has taken a huge step forward. It’s the little things that can be the difference between a win and a loss.
Speaking of which, while the Cardinals defense has improved, the Brewers made offense a priority at the deadline which shifts Travis Shaw to second base and Jonathan Schoop to shortstop. That’s a defensive step backwards from Orlando Arcia and Jonathan Villar. The offense hasn’t gotten the boost it was looking for either as Schoop hasn’t adjusted to his new team quite yet.
Probable Pitchers
It’s a bit of a mismatch in this pitching matchup, at least at first glance, but both Miles Mikolas and Wade Miley have been pleasant surprises this year for their respective teams.
Mikolas hasn’t allowed more than four runs in any of his starts this season and even when he hasn’t had his best stuff, he’s been able to keep the Cardinals in the game. Meanwhile, Miley hasn’t made nearly as many starts due to groin and oblique issues, but while other starters have gone down with injuries, he’s now stepped into the rotation with great success, giving up no more than two runs in seven of his eight starts and three runs or less in all eight.
Looking at the numbers, both pitchers have been impressive this year even if Miley’s has come in a small sample size.
Mikolas was an All-Star, and well deserved, too. He’s now 12-3 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.051 WHIP. His 3.37 FIP illustrates that he may have been a bit lucky to get to that low ERA, but given St. Louis’s questionable defense for much of the year, it’s not likely due to that.
The righty gets knocked for a low strikeout rate at 6.1 per nine innings, but with just 26 walks allowed in 151.1 innings, he’s got a strong 3.92 strikeout to walk ratio. He’s also been quite stingy with the long ball, making the opposition put the ball in play. With the improved defense behind him now, things could get even better.
Due to his injuries, Miley has only made eight starts for the Brew Crew, but they’ve been good. He’s got a 2.23 ERA, but some of that is misleading. He’s been able to avoid damaged despite 19 walks in 40.1 innings. The high number of walks has also driven up his pitch count, so he’s not likely to go much more than five innings a start.
What has really helped Miley so far is a very low BABIP and the ability to keep the ball in the ballpark. He’s only allowed two homers in eight games and while that’ll go up some, it’s more likely to stay low than the BABIP.
Miley’s FIP in his eight games is 4.20 and that’s more in line with how he’s been pitching than the ERA and marks him more as a solid mid-to-back-end starter rather than someone that can consistently hang with an All-Star arm in a pitchers’ duel.
Live Betting
While some teams are better than the sum of their parts and seemingly find ways to defy the numbers and win, the Cardinals were the opposite team for most of the year.
Typically when teams struggle late, the bullpen is at the root of their issues. St. Louis’s pen was bad most of the year. They got nothing from Greg Holland, Tyler Lyons and Luke Gregerson who were supposed to be the anchors. The first two are no longer in the organization while the latter one is on the 60-day DL.
Now, the Cardinals have a lot of young—but quality—arms in their bullpen, throwing great stuff behind the starters. Carlos Martinez is going to be added to the pen, but won’t be activated until Monday.
Until Martinez is added, Bud Norris and Jordan Hicks are the main late inning arms. They’ve been worked hard this season, but have produced well. Supporting them now are Austin Gomber, Chasen Shreve and others. Brett Cecil is now back, but seemingly banned to the mop up role.
On the other side of the matchup, the Brewers boasted a dominating bullpen for much of the season, but the bullpen ERA has steadily been climbing of late. The unit as a whole has been wildly overworked thanks to a lackluster rotation that doesn’t give enough depth.
Josh Hader and Jeremy Jeffress were both All-Stars and still have good numbers and great stuff, but close Corey Knebel has a 4.78 ERA and has lost save chances. Meanwhile, Joakim Soria is on the DL. Taylor Williams has struggled with the free passes and seen his numbers bump up and Corbin Burnes made a big initial splash, but is learning Major League hitters are far more dangerous than those in Triple-A.
The Brewers still have a good bullpen, but it’s not as deep as it was earlier in the year and is no longer a key advantage over a team like St. Louis.
MLB Pick
Look for both starters to pitch reasonably well, but Mikolas will go deeper into the game and find more success. Miley had a good start to his season last year before falling back to earth, too. It seems like a matter of time until his high walk rate comes back to bite him. Look for that to start in this game.
The red hot Cardinals are finding ways to win these days and being patient, taking walks and driving them in seems right in line with what St. Louis has been doing.
After a good start for Mikolas, look for the revamped bullpen of good young arms to hold the lead and allow the Cardinals to win the game. Meanwhile, although the Brewers have gotten better production from their bullpen this year, the unit is starting to show signs of fatigue after being asked to do a lot through the year.
MLB Odds: Cardinals 6, Brewers 4
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