The Philadelphia Phillies are in a dog fight atop the NL East with the Braves. They need to keep winning to try and overtake Atlanta in the division. On Wednesday, the take on the Washington Nationals in the middle game of a three-game series. Washington came into the season as the heavy favorites to win the NL East, but for now, they’re barely treading water around-.500 and on the outside looking in. They’ll need to take advantage of their head-to-head series—like this one—with the teams ahead of them. Can Stephen Strasburg help get the Nats back on track or will Zach Eflin and the Phillies take this one?
First pitch of the game between the Phillies and Nationals is scheduled for Wednesday, August 22, 2018, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. The matchup will be televised nationally on MLB Network.
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Odds Analysis
Head-to-head, the Phillies have won six of the 10 meetings between these two clubs though they’re tied at 51 runs a piece in terms of total runs scored.
While some teams are exceeding their run differential, the Nationals are on the other end of the spectrum. A couple blowout wins have skewed the numbers and while they’ve got a +59 run differential, they’re unable to get any momentum going. They’re just floating around .500.
In fact, the Nationals haven’t had a winning month since May. They got off to a nice start in August, but are now lost four straight series to drop to 9-10 on the month.
A healthy roster was supposed to help Washington go on a run, but that hasn’t been the case. The offense is healthy—mostly. They have Daniel Murphy back and hitting .300. They have Adam Eaton and Ryan Zimmerman. Nevertheless, Washington continues to struggle to find consistency.
While Bryce Harper’s bat has heated up and Juan Soto continues to put up insane numbers for a 19-year old, the likes of Michael A. Taylor, Matt Wieters, Wilmer Difo, and even Trea Turner struggle to live up to expectations.
The Phillies’ offense was never that great this year. The bats have been doing just enough to allow a strong pitching staff to carry the team. This is also a young team and younger teams tend to falter some down the stretch as the season drags on.
To counter that, the Phillies made some key acquisitions. The team has just a .691 OPS in August with the fourth fewest runs scored in the NL. The Mets’ pitching quieted them over the weekend. They need the likes of Wilson Ramos and Justin Bour to spark the offense. Bour is primarily serving as a bat off the bench, but Ramos helps solidify a position of need behind the plate. He’s an excellent catcher and has looked good in his first handful of games with the Phillies.
Ramos is seemingly deepening the lineup in a way that Asdrubal Cabrera wasn’t able to since he took most the starts at shortstop.
The Phillies are lacking that true superstar bat. The closest thing to that is Rhys Hoskins. Nevertheless, they’ve got enough top to bottom to push enough runs across the board.
Probable Pitchers
It’s a pair of returns, at least of sorts, as Stephen Strasburg comes off the DL to make his first start since July 20 for the Nationals while Zach Eflin returns from a roster-management assignment to the minors prior to the game.
While Eflin’s return is to the roster despite having made his last start—as part of a doubleheader, Strasburg’s is a much bigger return. The Nationals have missed him in the rotation.
Strasburg will be making the start on Wednesday having not made any rehab starts. We’ll see if the decision to forgo a rehab start was a good one, but he apparently had an impressive, 70-pitch simulated game last week.
The Nationals’ right-hander has been on the DL a couple times this year, making just 14 starts. In those starts, he’s been okay, but not quite as good as Washington was hoping. He’s 6-7 with a 3.90 ERA in 85.1 innings of work.
The peripheral numbers for Strasburg are a bit more encouraging than his standard numbers. He’s got a 3.50 FIP and 101 strikeouts to just 21 walks. He’s been a bit home run prone, but hasn’t typically had that issue over his career. It could just be a result of a rather small sample size.
The return of Strasburg is big for a struggling Nationals’ team that needs to make a move to get back in the playoff picture. That’s a lot of pressure on the righty for his first start back, but he needs to deliver. This will be his first start against the Phillies this year. He’s made 21 starts against Philadelphia in his career, going 10-2 with a 2.22 ERA.
Of course, the Phillies’ he’s pitched so well against were a different team than this year’s edition. The Phillies are having a much better season than they’ve had in recent past. The offense that Strasburg will be facing is part of the reason for the improvement, but the rotation is an even bigger piece. That includes Eflin.
The 24-year old right-hander made 11 starts each of the last two years, but was a bit over his head in the Majors. He made some offseason adjustments that’ve really paid off.
Since joining the rotation this year, he’s made 17 starts and is 9-4 with a 3.70 ERA in 97.1 innings. He’s pitching to a 1.130 WHIP and 3.77 FIP. He’s nearly doubled his strikeout rate form years past and has done well keeping his walk and home run rates low.
In his last start, Eflin pushed through a two-run first to keep his team in the game, going 6.2 innings and allowing four runs against the Mets. He got the win in that game.
Eflin last faced the Nationals in June, allowing two runs in five innings in route to his fifth win of the season.
Overall, when Eflin is on the mound, the Philies are 10-7. That’s not a bad overall record.
Live Betting
The Washington offense is healthy again, but the bullpen is missing a ton of key pieces which leaves a number of questions for when Strasburg turns the ball over the pen in this game.
Sean Doolittle is on the shelf as is Ryan Madson. Kelvin Herrera is inching closer to a return, but he’s not likely to get back until the very end of this series at the earliest and wasn’t that great for the Nationals when he was healthy.
For now, the back of the bullpen belongs to the discarded Greg Holland and one of last year’s failed closers in Koda Glover. Glover is young and has talent and Holland hasn’t allowed a run since the Nationals picked him up, but it’s hard to trust a 5.1 inning sample size. Matt Grace and Wander Suero are the only healthy Nationals relievers with more than 15 innings in the bullpen for Washington. From there, it’s bounce back arm Tim Collins who is essentially a one-batter pitcher, Holland, Glover and Jimmy Cordero. Not exactly the proven, veteran bullpen one expects from a contender.
Of course the Phillies’ bullpen isn’t the most proven either. Pat Neshek, Tommy Hunter and Luis Garcia offer the veteran presence, but Seranthony Dominguez has the ninth inning locked down while Victor Arano and Edubray Ramos boast the nastiest stuff in the setup role. All three, however, have pitched at least 35 innings for Philadelphia this year, all posting an ERA of 2.28 or better. They’re all also striking out at least a batter per inning.
The Phillies may not have a ton of name recognition in their pen, but they surely have a ton of electric stuff to provide better relief behind Eflin on Wednesday than the Nationals can provide behind Strasburg.
MLB Pick
The Nationals should be a better team. The sum of their parts is more than that of Philadelphia. Nevertheless, the Phillies are winning and the Nationals aren’t.
Strasburg’s return could be an emotional boost for Washington, but putting it all on his shoulders is a lot to ask in his first start. Meanwhile, the bullpen is riddled with injuries and question marks.
In the end, look for Strasburg to have a good start, but to not make through six due to a pitch count issue as he’s likely to be on a short leash after such a long time away. Meanwhile, behind the Nats, the bullpen isn’t likely to put up a line of zeros. Look for the pen to give up a few more runs and ultimately close the Nationals the game.
As for Philadelphia, look for Eflin to maneuver through with Washington lineup and come out with a quality start before the Phillies’ relievers do enough to maintain the lead and get the win.
MLB Odds: Phillies 5, Nationals 4
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