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Two of National League contenders square off in a series finale on Sunday and TBS has the coverage as the Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs close out a series in the City of Brotherly Love. The Phillies have been struggling a bit and need this win. Fortunately, they’ll have Aaron Nola on the mound, but the Cubs won’t make it easy as they have Jon Lester lined up to make the start, setting things up for a great pitching duel.
First pitch of the game between the Cubs and Phillies is scheduled for Sunday, September 2, 2018, at 1:35 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. The matchup will be televised nationally on TBS.
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Odds Analysis
The Cubs are 7-1 in their last eight games and starting to open up a gap in the NL Central. Over a longer stretch, Chicago is 17-9 in August, 23-16 in the second half and 32-19 since the start of July. The Cubs are on a roll and it’s more than just a hot streak. This team is stacked.
Offensively, they’re tops in the NL in runs scored. They’re also about to get one of their best hitters back off the DL for this series and game.
Kris Bryant has been on the shelf for some time, but is slated to return. With newly acquired Daniel Murphy hitting well at second, Javier Baez will continue to cover shortstop and Bryant will take over third, pushing David Bote to the bench. With expanded rosters, the Cubs bench will get even deeper. Chicago already has three players with at least 22 homers. Bryant adds another power bat as does Murphy.
Joe Maddon has a deep and flexible roster to mix-and-match and nobody is better at that than him. Jason Heyward is having a bounce back year with a .342 OBP, Ben Zobrist is hitting.312 and Ian Happ is getting on base more than 35-percent of the time. The options are seemingly endless.
The Phillies are sizeable step down offensively. In their last 20 games, the Phillies are 7-13 and they’re fading fast. The offense is a part of that and so is the bullpen, but we’ll get to that later.
Philadelphia has added Wilson Ramos to the heart of the order and he’s good bat behind the plate, but may not play in a Sunday afternoon game.
Philadelphia doesn’t score at the same clip as Chicago, but they can still get their runs. They’ve got some home run threats with Carlos Santana, Maikel Franco, Rhys Hoskins and Odubel Herrera all having more than 20. Ramos, Nick Williams and newly acquired Jose Bautista can also go yard.
Probable Pitchers
An off day earlier this week affords Gabe Kapler a chance to push up Aaron Nola’s start, giving us an epic pitching matchup between Nola and the Cubs’ Jon Lester on Sunday afternoon.
Not only does the start keep Nola on regular rest, but it also allows him to pitch at home. He’s been great regardless of venue this year, but he’s been even better at home, going 9-0 with a 1.94 ERA in 13 starts. Overall, the Cy Young contender is 15-3 with a 2.10 ERA and 0.966 WHIP. He’s made 27 starts, tossed 176 innings and struck out 177 batters.
Perhaps most notably, Nola’s kept the ball in the ballpark. The Cubs have some pop, but may have trouble getting airborne against Nola. He’s only allowed eight homers this year despite playing half his games in a very hitter friendly ballpark. Given a reasonable walk rate, solid strikeout rate and so few dingers, his FIP isn’t much higher than the ERA at 2.62.
It really has been a remarkable season for Nola who has been worth 8.9 rWAR. He’s only allowed more than two runs in five of his 27 starts and hasn’t given up more than four at all. He’s allowed more than a signal run in just one of his last six games and has allowed two combined runs in his last four.
One of his worst outings came against the Cubs back in June, but even that game he ended up with a quality start, allowing three runs in six innings. That would have qualified as a good performance for nearly anyone else.
On the other side of this matchup, Lester has been pitching well lately. He had a stretch in the middle of the year where he struggled, but has a 2.04 ERA over his last three starts. He’s also done very well against Philadelphia in the past, pitching to a 1.64 ERA and 7-0 record in nine starts. Of course, this isn’t exactly the same Phillies team he’s faced in years past. Nevertheless, Lester should have confidence.
The veteran southpaw, like Nola, was an All-Star this year and while his overall numbers are noticeably inferior, he does have a longer track record.
This year the lefty is 14-5 with a 3.67 ERA in 27 starts and 152 innings. He isn’t going as deep in games as Nola nor is he pitching as well in the innings he does throw. His ERA is a run and a half higher, but the gap in their FIPs is even worse. Lester has a 4.78 FIP and a 1.322 WHIP. He’s walking 3.3 per nine innings and has a 2.13 strikeout to walk ratio. He’s also allowed nearly three times as many homers, giving up 23.
His last three starts have been pretty good, though he still allowed three runs in six innings in the most recent one. Prior to these last three starts, however, Lester was homer happy with eight straight games allowing a home run.
It appears Lester is past his rough stretch, but even good Lester will have trouble matching what Nola has done lately.
Live Betting
The Phillies are counting on Nola to outpitch Lester and he should be able to do just that, but can the Phillies bullpen hold the lead?
The young arms in the backend have seemingly hit a wall, much like some of the bats. Seranthony Dominguez has been a huge part of the Phillies’ success, but the young closer is choking when the team needs him most.
Dominguez has blown three of his last seven save chances. Fellow youngster Victor Arano has not been as good lately either. Fortunately, the team does still have a couple veterans in Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter. Hector Neris, the former closer, has also pitched well since his return and in his last eight innings has allowed just three hits, no walks and struck out 18 batters. He’s dominating right now.
On the other side of the matchup, the Cubs are still without closer Brandon Morrow. Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards Jr. and Steve Cishek are all pitching well in the late innings and Jesse Chavez may have been the one of the most underrated pickups at the trade deadline as he’s pitched well for the Cubs.
The Cubs’ bullpen is a good one and the Phillies offense will have trouble getting to it. That puts even more pressure on Nola to out pitch Lester.
MLB Pick
The Cubs are a better offensive team and have a better bullpen, particularly right now given the Phillies’ latest struggles. Philadelphia is slumping a bit and they need Nola to be a stopper, getting them back on track.
Look for a fun pitchers’ duel on Sunday. These two hurlers will have to outpitch the other to get the win. With how well he’s thrown all year, look for Nola to outduel Lester for the victory.
The Cubs’ offense is a much more difficult task for Nola, but he should be up for the challenge. He’s so good at home and has yet to get a loss there. Don’t look for on in this game. Look for Nola to go seven strong, keeping the Phillies’ bullpen from getting too overexposed. Kapler will find the right pieces to give the team the final six outs and the win.
Offensively, the Phillies have enough options as they keep adding pieces to bulk up the bench.
MLB Odds: Phillies 4, Cubs 2
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