It’s an important weekend series coming up for the Los Angeles Dodgers who will play host to the Arizona Diamondbacks, hoping to make up some ground against the division leaders. The Dodgers are still the divisional Goliath, but time is running out for them to make their move back to the top of the division standings after winning the NL West in each of the last five seasons. Can the Dodgers make up ground over the weekend or will time continue to run without any progress by the men in blue?
The first game of the four-game series between the Diamondbacks and Dodgers is scheduled for Thursday, August 30, 2018, at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium. The games on Friday and Saturday will be evening games, too, while the series finale on Sunday will be a matinee. All four matchups will be televised locally.
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Odds Analysis
The Diamondbacks own the season series against the Dodgers, winning eight of 12 meetings so far. They’ve also outscored L.A. by 13 runs. The D-Backs had Los Angeles’ number last year, too. Even with the Dodgers winning 104-games, Arizona held its own, winning 11 of 19 meetings.
While the Dodgers ran away with the NL West last year, it’s L.A. chasing Arizona here in 2018 with the Dodgers a few games back of both the Diamondbacks and Rockies for the division’s top spot.
The Dodgers have been an exceptionally streaky team this year. After a 16-26 starts, the Dodgers proceeded to go 43-20 in their next 63 games while climbing up the standings. Since then, however, the Dodgers have lost the division lead and gone 11-15.
The trade deadline moves have yet to pay dividends for the Dodgers. Manny Machado and Brian Dozier offer depth to the order and helps give Dave Roberts more options to mix and match across the field. Since the start of August, however, those two have been okay and Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy have been hitting very well. On the other side, however, Matt Kemp has gone ice cold, Chris Taylor is batting .203 with a .291 OBP in August after losing his starting spot at shortstop, and others like Yasmani Grandal and Joc Pederson who were red hot in the middle of the year are both hitting below the Mendoza Line over the last month.
The Dodgers’ lineup is good, but it isn’t clicking on all cylinders right now. Still, the team has 11 players with an OPS+ of at least 101 and at least 100 plate appearances. That’s hard to match. Just ask the D-Backs. Arizona only has five such hitters that meet those qualifications.
Eduardo Escobar has been a big addition to the order while A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt, David Peralta and Daniel Descalso are all having good seasons. That’s a good start to the order.
While not as deep of a roster offensively as the Dodgers, the D-Backs have scored enough. Jon Jay is also batting .300 with a .344 OBP in August to deepen the order a bit. Still, in August, the D-Backs have scored the sixth fewest runs in baseball and have a .764 OBP compared to a .805 OPS for the Dodgers who have plated 22 more runs in one additional game.
Probable Pitchers
Neither team has officially announced their starters for this series, but the arms lined up to make the starts will provide a few interesting matchups, none bigger than Friday nights’ projected showdown between former teammates: Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke.
Overall, the Dodgers should be sending Rich Hill, Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Walker Buehler to the hill, in that order. Meanwhile, the D-Backs are expected to counter with Robbie Ray, Greinke, Patrick Corbin and Clay Buchholz.
In the opener, Ray will try and build off his last start where he allowed a single run in five innings against the Mariners. He struck out seven in the outing.
Overall, Ray’s had a tough year. He’s been a below replacement level player and struggled with injuries. He’s just 3-2 with a 4.73 ERA and 1.459 WHIP in 17 games. The D-Backs are just 7-10 with him on the mound though his strikeout numbers are still there with 111 in 85.2 innings. He was an All-Star last year with a 2.89 ERA. The talent is there and he’s been better of late with a 3.66 ERA in August, though his walk rate is still elevated.
As for Hill, he’s 6-4 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.218 WHIP in 19 games. He’s struggled with injuries some, too, but he’s done better than Ray when on the mound. A much different pitcher, Hill has been more effective overall using his big curve than Ray has with his power fastball. Hill, like Ray, is also coming off a strong start, going six scoreless, allowing just two runs against the Padres.
Moving into the big showdown on Friday night, Kershaw and Greinke were the dueling aces for the Dodgers a couple years ago. Now, they’re battling head-to-head.
Kershaw has struggled with some injuries this year, but seems healthy now. After 20 starts, he’s’ 6-5 with a 2.39 ERA and 0.997 WHIP. He’s got a 2.84 FIP in 124.1 innings and has done well limiting walks and keeping the opposition in the park.
Greinke, meanwhile, is 13-8 with a 2.93 ERA. He’s made a few more starts, but doesn’t go quite as deep in games as Kershaw. He’s another pitcher that is routinely in the zone, avoiding walks, but his 3.57 FIP is higher than Kershaw’s primarily because of his inflated home run rate. He’s allowed 23 bombs in his 27 starts.
For the rest of the starters for this series, the Dodgers have Ryu and Buehler as a couple underrated arms. Ryu is a great arm, but hasn’t been able to stay healthy. He’s 4-1 with a 2.18 ERA in nine starts this year. When he pitches, he pitches well.
Buehler, on the other hand, has been a hyped prospect for some time. He’s shown no signs of struggling the adjustment to the Major League ball and hitters. He’s 6-4 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.018 WHIP in 17 games.
Likewise, for the D-Backs, Corbin and Buchholz have been huge boosts. Greinke and Ray were supposed to lead the way for this staff, but Corbin is an All-Star with a 10-5 record and 3.15 ERA and 1.020 WHIP. He got off to a hot start and has sustained a level of success. He’s pitched well and provided the D-Backs with plenty of innings. He’s also striking out 11 per nine innings.
As for Buchholz, he’s 7-2 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.025 WHIP in 80 innings, spread over 13 starts. Picked up off the scrap heap, Buchholz has proven himself healthy and effective. He’s had very strong stretches like this over his career, but hasn’t been able to sustain that success, largely due to injury issues. He’s healthy now and pitching well.
Live Betting
The month of August has been a rough one for bullpens across the NL West. The relief corps was supposed to be one of the strengths of the D-Backs and with a 3.12 ERA—best in the NL—it is still an advantage for Arizona over Los Angeles. After all, the Dodgers’ have a much more pedestrian 3.92 bullpen ERA.
Some of the Dodgers’ issues here in August was the loss of Kenley Jansen. Without their All-Star closer, the Dodgers struggled closing out games. They didn’t have a suitable replacement for Jansen. While the elite closer is back and solidifies the ninth, there’s still the issue of getting to him with the lead.
Kenta Maeda in the pen helps some with that. His stuff plays up in relief and with Scott Alexander, Pedro Baez and Caleb Ferguson there are some options, but the middle relief is likely the biggest weakness for the Dodgers who did nothing to address the need at the deadline.
As for the Diamondbacks, they added to a strength in July, picking up Brad Ziegler and Jake Diekman. Both have had some bumps in the road, but both also add different looks to an already deep pen.
With Brad Boxberger in the ninth, the Dodgers have the better closer, but there’s no arguing the D-Backs set up options beat out those in L.A. From Archie Bradley to Yoshihisa Hirano to Andrew Chafin and more, the Diamondbacks are loaded with viable options to get key outs.
MLB Pick
The Dodgers are home for this four-game series and desperately need to make up some ground in the NL West. This series would be a great way to do that.
These two teams are too evenly matched to expect either to sweep. Besides, sweeping a four-game series is difficult regardless of the opposition.
It’s possible that either team could nab a series win—and the Dodgers need one here—but it’s more likely that we see a series split.
Both the Dodgers and Diamondbacks will be sending good starters to the hill, but both have seen their bullpens struggle to close out games over the last month. Both of these rosters also have some quality hitters that’ll lead to some close games, decided late. In the end, these two teams are too evenly matched to expect either to dominate this series.
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